Ukraine loses key wheat markets in Asia and Africa to Russia

Ukraine has almost misplaced its wheat markets in Asia and Africa because of a give attention to exports to Europe.

Supply: Latifundist

Particulars: "We misplaced 70% of the Egyptian market. All Ukrainian exporters reoriented to Europe. We not solely missed the chance to promote profitably to Egypt but additionally misplaced the belief of Egyptian consumers," a consultant from Promising Worldwide Buying and selling Co. DMCC advised the publication.

Merchants report that 75% of Tunisia’s imported wheat is Russian, many of the the rest is French, and Ukrainian wheat is nearly absent. Ukraine has additionally misplaced market shares in Sudan and Ethiopia.

In lots of African international locations, similar to Kenya and Nigeria, high-protein wheat (12.5%) is in demand, which Ukrainian wheat typically lacks.

"Whereas 11.5% protein is appropriate for many, markets with a 12.5% threshold are dominated by Russia, not us," a spokesperson from Ukrainian agricultural firm TAS Agro defined.

Merchants highlighted challenges in Asian markets, notably Bangladesh and Indonesia, the place Russia is actively displacing rivals.

"We see Russia promoting for rupees in India, participating in barter and deepening cooperation with China. They hedge dangers, anticipating potential new restrictions or foreign money entry points. In markets like Kenya, Nigeria and Bangladesh, they outcompete others by dumping wheat," TAS Agro famous.

Russian corporations reportedly provide deferred cost phrases, whereas Ukrainian corporations usually require cost instantly upon vessel loading.

As a result of EU restrictions, Ukrainian exporters might have to decrease costs and overhaul logistics, Latifundist reviews. Beforehand, merchants may consolidate small grain batches for Europe, however they have to now give attention to bigger shipments.

Background:

• It was reported that Ukraine’s sunflower oil market share in Asia is weakening because of advanced logistics, sanctions and competitors from cheaper Russian wheat, corn, and Argentine sunflower oil.
• Shipments of Ukrainian sunflower oil to India elevated almost threefold this season (September–March). Nonetheless, Russian oil dominates, accounting for over 50% of India’s sunflower oil imports.
• It was beforehand reported that, below probably the most pessimistic estimates, Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest may fall by 10% to about 51 million tonnes, down from 56.7 million tonnes in 2024. Minister of Agrarian Coverage Vitalii Koval predicted a ten% lower in grain yield and a 5% drop in oilseeds.

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