There are 13 video games left in Week 9 after the Ravens beat the Dolphins on Thursday night time. To prepare for the remainder of the motion, our NFL analysts have you ever coated on last-minute prep.
First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat developments that could possibly be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy soccer author Eric Moody runs by way of 5 gamers who’re rostered in underneath 50% of ESPN fantasy soccer leagues as of Saturday and could possibly be began in a jam. That’s adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak predicting three doubtlessly large surprises and NFL analyst Matt Bowen choosing one key matchup to observe. Lastly, sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado provides her favourite wager of Week 9.
Has effectivity truly been an issue for 49ers working again Christian McCaffrey this season? Who has the sting in a strength-on-strength Broncos-Texans matchup? Is there fantasy upside for Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold or Bears tight finish Colston Loveland in Week 9? And will the Steelers finish the Colts’ four-game win streak with an upset?
We get into all that, plus a whole lot of key intel on the AFC Championship Recreation rematch between the Chiefs and Payments. Let’s begin there.
Leap to:
Stat developments | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Finest wager of the week
Can the Payments’ protection push the Chiefs out of their consolation zone?
No staff likes to cross greater than the Chiefs, and nearly no staff likes to cross in the midst of the sector greater than them. Fifty-six % of their targets land between the numbers, second highest within the league. However that could possibly be a difficulty in opposition to Buffalo’s protection, which permits the third-lowest goal fee to the center of the sector (43%).
Along with that, the Payments are a run-inducing protection. The cross fee over expectation in opposition to them this season is a league-low minus-10%. (Buffalo having the fourth-worst run protection by way of EPA per play absolutely has one thing to do with that quantity.)
So what does that imply for Kansas Metropolis’s offense? As a substitute of counting on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice’s strengths in the midst of the sector, this could possibly be decided by Xavier Worthy’s potential on the surface and/or deep. Manufacturing from working backs Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith could possibly be essential, too. Beginning working again Isiah Pacheco shouldn’t be anticipated to play after spraining a knee ligament final week.
Will 49ers working again Christian McCaffrey discover effectivity in opposition to the Giants?
Have you learnt who has the worst rush yards over expectation within the NFL this season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats? Consider it or not, it’s McCaffrey at minus-92. It has been neglected as a result of he has had such a productive season within the cross recreation, however McCaffrey and his 3.5 yards per carry have hardly been environment friendly.
Maybe an antidote is coming in Week 9. The Giants are permitting 5.7 yards per carry this season, most within the NFL. However it will get even higher for the 49ers. They run exterior zone 52% of the time (second most), and the Giants are permitting much more yards per carry in opposition to these performs (6.7).
Who will win within the trenches, the Broncos’ offensive line or the Texans’ cross rush?
It is a pure strength-on-strength battle. The Broncos have maybe the very best pass-protecting offensive line within the league. They’re No. 1 in cross block win fee (72.5%), and tackles Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey are tied for fifth in PBWR at their place.
That potential has been key to the staff’s offensive success with quarterback Bo Nix, however will probably be underneath a special degree of scrutiny Sunday. Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. has had a scorching begin with a 27.2% cross rush win fee that ranks second at edge, and Danielle Hunter is ninth in the identical class (20.2%). If the Broncos can maintain off these two edge rushers, they’ll be in good condition. However that’s an enormous ask.
Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks (35.4% of rostered)
Darnold struggled in opposition to Houston earlier than Seattle’s bye, scoring simply 8.6 fantasy factors, however that has been the case for nearly each quarterback in opposition to the Texans’ protection. They’ve allowed 10.5 fantasy factors per recreation to the place.
Earlier than that recreation, Darnold had scored 16 or extra fantasy factors in 5 straight contests, together with two with no less than 20. He has one of many league’s high receivers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and faces a Commanders protection that has given up the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers (26.7% rostered)
Bourne is an intriguing choice for Week 9. With huge receiver Ricky Pearsall nonetheless sidelined and quarterback Brock Purdy’s standing unsure, Bourne ought to stay the 49ers’ No. 2 receiver. He has already proven chemistry with backup Mac Jones from their time in New England and has delivered regular fantasy manufacturing in current weeks. Going through a Giants protection that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors per recreation to huge receivers, Bourne has a transparent path to focus on quantity and upside.
Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears (24.1% rostered)
Loveland could possibly be leaned on extra this week with Cole Kmet nonetheless restricted in observe and a number of Bears receivers coping with accidents. The rookie tight finish performed over 80% of the offensive snaps and noticed 5 targets in opposition to the Ravens. What makes Loveland much more interesting is the matchup, as no protection permits extra fantasy factors per recreation to tight ends than Cincinnati.
Brashard Smith, RB, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (12.8% rostered)
Kareem Hunt is predicted to begin for Kansas Metropolis after Isiah Pacheco’s damage, however Smith also needs to see extra touches. He has recorded no less than three receptions in 4 of his previous 5 video games, and although he hasn’t been closely used as a runner, he could possibly be viable if given extra carries. It additionally helps that the Payments have allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts (10.9% rostered)
Pierce is the definition of big-play upside, averaging 21.4 yards per reception this season. He has topped 60 receiving yards in 4 of six video games and has seen no less than 5 targets in 4 contests, together with 10 targets in Week 7. The Steelers’ protection has given up the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation to huge receivers and 13 passing touchdowns, placing Pierce in place for one more explosive efficiency.
The Bears bounce proper again in opposition to the Bengals
Chicago was on a four-game profitable streak after they caught the Ravens at an absolute nightmare spot final week — after a bye, at house, extremely motivated to make a playoff push and returning a ton of gamers from damage. The Ravens regarded like an elite staff once more, and the Bears are nonetheless a step or two under that standing. However the Bengals? Chicago ought to run roughshod on Cincinnati’s protection, and it would lastly discover some cross rush in opposition to the Bengals’ shaky inside.
The Steelers upset the Colts
It’s exactly when everybody doubts him essentially the most that Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has his biggest performances. The 7-1 Colts are due for a letdown recreation, and touring to Pittsburgh with a depleted secondary feels harmful. The Colts have been good at producing stress with 4 rushers, however accidents to Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis query their depth at line of defense, too. Indy ought to lead for many of the recreation with that great offense, but when that is inside one rating within the fourth quarter, be careful for a masterclass from Steelers kicker Chris Boswell.
Rumors concerning the Vikings buying and selling for a QB intensify
We’re getting J.J. McCarthy’s third begin this week, and it’s a doozy. The Vikings are on the highway in Detroit in opposition to an amazing run protection and a complicated, aggressive secondary. I anticipate a ton of third-and-longs for McCarthy and a few shaky cross safety. If this recreation will get ugly simply two days earlier than the NFL commerce deadline, I’d anticipate Minnesota to make some requires a viable QB2 who may moonlight as QB1. The Colts’ Anthony Richardson Sr.? The Eagles’ Tanner McKee? The Chiefs’ Gardner Minshew?
Chiefs coach Andy Reid vs. the Payments’ foundational coverages
Walder talked about the Payments’ energy at defending the center of the sector, however one other wrinkle to think about is their reliance on zone protection. Buffalo runs zone on 69.5% of opponent dropbacks (eighth most within the NFL), so Reid can work to scheme throws for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Suppose leveled routes right here, with vertical clear-out routes to raise the safeties and open the protection voids for intermediate targets.
A selected participant to observe? Travis Kelce, who simply had a season-high 99 receiving yards in opposition to the Commanders. I believe he can be a serious a part of the matchup.
UNDER 52.5 factors in Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at Buffalo Payments
Buffalo shouldn’t be constructed just like the outdated model that lived on chunk performs. The Payments are run-focused, averaging a league-high 164.4 speeding yards per recreation, and are prepared to take what’s given to them. In the meantime, Kansas Metropolis dictates tempo, makes use of the run and leans on possession and endurance.
The Payments’ accidents on the inside line of defense (defensive deal with Ed Oliver is out indefinitely with a torn biceps) may matter, however that doesn’t robotically flip this right into a shootout. As a substitute, this matchup may flip right into a ball management script, as each groups are inside the high three leaguewide in time of possession. This one can be tight, bodily and determined by execution — not explosive performs.
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