Venezuela is the nation with the world's largest oil reserves. As soon as certainly one of Latin America's richest nations, it has lengthy been trapped in a political and humanitarian disaster.For over a decade, Venezuelans have lived underneath the authoritarian rule of Hugo Chávez's successor, Nicolás Maduro – a regime marked by financial collapse, censorship, mass emigration, and deepening dependence on Russia, China and Iran. Whereas tens of millions fled overseas, those that stayed confronted repression and the systematic destruction of democratic establishments.
In recent times, the USA has alternated between sanctions and cautious engagement, between requires democracy and pragmatic negotiations – a coverage that usually left Venezuelans unsure whether or not Washington actually stood with them or merely sought leverage within the international vitality market. That ambivalence would possibly sound acquainted to Ukrainians.
But in any dialog about Venezuela, it's inconceivable not to attract different parallels between these two resource-rich nations, trapped in battles for survival. Each are affected by energy cuts and water shortages. Each have watched the world's democracies vacillate between precept and pragmatism.
Venezuela reveals how corruption and repression can hole out a state from inside – one thing Ukrainians ought to take note of in gentle of latest occasions.
To grasp what it means to stay in such geopolitical uncertainty – and what classes Venezuela's battle holds for Ukraine – Ukrainska Pravda spoke with Roberto Patiño, a Venezuelan democracy and human rights activist.
"When a regime weaponises chaos, each disaster turns into a possibility to tighten its grip"
Let's begin with the fundamentals. For these in Ukraine who could not know a lot about Venezuela, might you describe the present scenario in your nation?
Venezuela was as soon as one of the affluent democracies in Latin America. Within the final 20 years, it has turn out to be a textbook case of institutional decay. We now have lived via hyperinflation, the collapse of fundamental providers, and the violent dismantling of democratic establishments.
The humanitarian influence has been devastating: greater than 8 million Venezuelans have left the nation, together with my circle of relatives. What started as an ideological "socialist" mission advanced right into a system of management the place energy is preserved via repression, disinformation, and the criminalisation of dissent.
I spent years working in essentially the most weak neighbourhoods of Caracas, constructing neighborhood kitchens and violence prevention programmes. Ultimately, the federal government declared me a "CIA agent" and "terrorist", issued an arrest warrant, and compelled me into exile. That’s the actuality for hundreds of Venezuelans whose solely crime is wanting a greater nation.
Are you continue to in contact with mates in Venezuela? What’s day by day life like in Caracas or Maracaibo?
Sure, I converse with mates and neighborhood leaders each week. Every day life is a paradox: folks adapt and attempt to survive in irregular situations. In Caracas, you may see a "normality" on the floor – cafés open, site visitors, children in class (though public colleges should not open on daily basis) – but it surely sits on high of energy cuts, water shortages, failing public transport, and skyrocketing prices. Folks depend on water vans, cash-and-carry drugs, and WhatsApp networks to seek out fundamentals.
Maracaibo is harder: warmth, blackouts, costly gasoline. Households rotate mills and share freezer house so meals doesn't spoil. Everybody has a contingency plan, on a regular basis.
Nicolás Maduro has been in energy throughout all these years. How would you characterise Maduro's regime right this moment?
The Maduro regime is an authoritarian, militarised and prison regime. Energy is concentrated in a small circle the place loyalty is maintained via corruption and concern.
The elections final yr have been overtly stolen. Establishments just like the judiciary and electoral authority serve the regime, not the folks. It's a system that survives by stopping change, not by incomes legitimacy.
How do strange Venezuelans nonetheless organise and resist? How harmful is it?
They organise quietly and regionally: neighbourhood chats, church teams, unions, college circles. Resistance right this moment is much less about large road marches and extra about micro-coordination – documenting abuses, getting drugs to a neighbour. It's dangerous. Surveillance is actual – informants, cellphone monitoring, and focused arrests. Folks scale back danger by holding roles modular, utilizing need-to-know channels, and leaning on diaspora help when the warmth rises.
After we recorded this dialog, the news broke that the Venezuelan army is getting ready a guerrilla response in case of a US assault.
America, in flip, launched a large-scale army operation close to Venezuela underneath the pretext of combating drug trafficking. The U.S. administration makes no secret of the truth that the deployment of army forces is a part of its technique to stress Maduro.
Opposition chief Edmundo González is in exile now, like many others. When Maduro secured his third six-year time period, González stated he had "crowned himself dictator". Out of your perspective, is it truthful to check Maduro's regime to these of Vladimir Putin or Alexander Lukashenko?
Sure – with nuances. Like Putin and Lukashenko, Maduro holds "elections", stealing the outcomes, and makes use of the state's media and safety equipment to silence opponents.
What differentiates Venezuela is the size of financial collapse. [Inflation peaked at 63,374.08% in 2018 and is estimated to be around 225% in 2026. GDP has fallen by 80% in less than a decade – ed.] Venezuela reveals how authoritarianism and state failure can merge, with prison networks controlling elements of the economic system, together with unlawful mining and trafficking. The regime behaves like a mafia that controls a territory, not a authorities that serves a nation.
What do you imply by "prison networks controlling elements of the economic system"?
There are three layers. The primary one: territorial gangs and jail mafias that tax native commerce, transport and building – parallel "governments" with their very own guidelines. Second: unlawful extraction economies – gold and different minerals within the south, protected by armed actors. The atmosphere and indigenous communities pay the worth. And the third one: state-enabled rackets – gasoline smuggling, import licences, and forex arbitrage dealt with by insiders. It's a political economic system of loyalty: when you're loyal, you get entry; if not, you're out.
Venezuela's economic system used to rely closely on oil exports. How onerous do you assume worldwide sanctions hit it?
Sanctions harm, however they didn’t trigger the collapse. The economic system was already imploding as a result of the regime destroyed property rights, expelled unbiased media, and turned nationwide oil manufacturing right into a corruption machine. Venezuela's oil manufacturing had collapsed years earlier than oil sanctions have been imposed.
Sanctions restricted the regime's entry to money, however the humanitarian disaster – starvation, lack of drugs, mass migration – іs the results of many years of mismanagement and corruption.
Earlier this yr, Maduro declared a 60-day "economic state of emergency", formally to "strengthen the nationwide economic system and counteract exterior stress", notably from the USA. What was actually behind this transfer, and what influence has it had on folks's lives?
It was political, not financial. Maduro manufactures "emergencies" to justify bypassing establishments and centralising extra energy.
For Venezuelans, these decrees imply extra management, no more stability. Costs rise, providers worsen, and uncertainty grows. When a regime weaponises chaos, each disaster turns into a possibility to tighten its grip.
"There’s a actual alternative for the US to assist dealer a transition"
At the moment you reside within the States, however I can't assist however ask: how do you assume Donald Trump's return to energy might reshape US coverage towards Venezuela, particularly given his previous give attention to securing entry to the nation's oil? We now have fairly the same story in Ukraine with the minerals deal.
Trump is unpredictable. One of many challenges in anticipating his coverage towards Venezuela is that there isn't one coherent "Trump view" – there are a number of competing factions round him, every pushing completely different methods.
Some folks in his orbit have supported a more durable line: most stress, sanctions, and even the thought of utilizing power. Others have centered extra on transactional offers involving oil or migration, treating Venezuela as a bargaining chip. So we genuinely don't know the place his coverage will land.
For me, the important thing level is that this: Venezuela's disaster is just not a chessboard. It's about 30 million lives.
There’s a actual alternative for the US, underneath any administration, to assist dealer a transition that’s sustainable, peaceable, and anchored in democratic ensures.
The objective needs to be a non-violent return to democracy, as a result of that’s the solely path that can cease the migration disaster and permit Venezuelans to return house.
In latest weeks, US military strikes on Venezuelan boats and ships, allegedly aimed toward curbing the move of medication into the USA, have reportedly left dozens lifeless – an escalation that Trump has publicly confirmed, although Congress lately voted towards it. How is that this lined inside Venezuela, and what's the general public temper round it?
Inside Venezuela, folks really feel concern and confusion.
State-controlled media manipulates the narrative, presenting Maduro as a sufferer and the nation as underneath assault. Impartial media, which might give context, has been largely silenced. Venezuelans are uninterested in battle: what we wish is a peaceable democratic transition, and which means Maduro has to go away energy. What occurs to unbiased media and those that converse out?
Contained in the nation: blocking, licence stress, raids, and authorized harassment – many journalists are political prisoners. Many retailers moved overseas; journalists function in hybrid mode – some in exile, some inside utilizing VPNs, all dealing with intimidation. Activists stay with summonses, journey bans, or worse. Regardless of this, they hold reporting and documenting. The braveness is extraordinary.
It's been reported that Maduro is willing to resign in trade for immunity ensures from Trump. Do you imagine such a deal is life like?That's what the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans need.
What do you assume can be the minimal credible ensures for this type of deal?Three issues. The primary one is safety ensures for regime insiders – to cut back their concern of punishment. That doesn't imply impunity for human rights violators. Second: institutional ensures – a transitional authorities with worldwide backing. And electoral ensures – unbiased electoral authority, worldwide statement, and full rights for candidates.
With out these components, no deal will stick.
How can chaos or revenge politics be prevented after Maduro?
You want guidelines earlier than rulers. A transitional pact with ensures for Chavistas that didn't violate human rights. Sequenced justice: pressing crimes first, a truth-telling course of with worldwide help, and clear strains between political and grave prison accountability. Actual democracy, together with deep decentralisation so no faction "wins every little thing". Quick financial stabilisation (meals, energy, transport) to purchase social peace whereas establishments are rebuilt.
"Maduro is just not a strategic equal – he’s a consumer"
How do Colombia and Brazil place themselves in the direction of Maduro? How does migration affect neighbouring nations?
Each prioritise stability and dialogue, even once they criticise abuses. They've tried to host or encourage negotiations as a result of tens of millions of Venezuelans now stay of their cities – with out success.
My view is that they haven't performed sufficient. Migration has stretched colleges, clinics and housing, and it's turn out to be a home political situation in Colombia, Brazil, and much past.
The lesson for the area is straightforward: there's no migration resolution with no Venezuelan democratic resolution.
Given Maduro's isolation from the US and Europe, he has lengthy sought help from Russia and China. How robust are these relationships right this moment? How dependent has Venezuela turn out to be on Moscow and Beijing?
Transactional and self-serving. Russia and China are lifelines for the regime – economically, militarily and informationally. Russia offers geopolitical cowl; China offers monetary oxygen.
Maduro is just not a strategic equal – he’s a consumer.
How lively is Russia's affect in Venezuela's data house – and what instruments does the regime use to regulate narratives?Very lively. Russian affect penetrates state media, diplomatic messaging and digital propaganda.
The regime additionally makes use of Russian techniques: distort actuality, overwhelm the knowledge house, create confusion. When folks can’t distinguish fact from lies, apathy turns into a instrument of management.
"AI is a historic alternative for civil society to scale hope quicker than concern"
Given the reports of AI-driven disinformation campaigns in Venezuela, how do you see the function of recent applied sciences – together with AI – contemplating the truth that you your self at the moment are working with AI? Do you imagine civil society might "flip" this know-how, utilizing it to strengthen democracy somewhat than undermine it?
Completely. Disinformation spreads at machine pace, however so can fact and mobilisation. In my work, we’ve used AI to empower communities to organise, monitor elections, counter disinformation.
Know-how is impartial. It may be used to oppress or to liberate. I imagine AI is a historic alternative for civil society to scale hope quicker than concern.Are you able to share a selected instance of how AI has already been used efficiently, perhaps in your observe?Final yr, when the regime all of a sudden modified tons of of voting areas earlier than the opposition primaries, we constructed an Instagram/WhatsApp bot utilizing AI that helped residents immediately discover their appropriate voting centre and discover ways to organise for election monitoring. We had over 300,000 customers. It reached folks in locations the place conventional media now not operates, and it gave strange residents a instrument to remain knowledgeable and coordinated regardless of censorship.
One other inspiring instance got here from Venezuelan journalists who created an AI-generated information anchor to share verified data on social media with out exposing actual reporters to danger. It was artistic, sensible, and lifesaving – a solution to inform the reality when telling the reality can get you jailed.These experiences present how know-how, when used ethically, will help degree the enjoying subject – giving folks again entry to fact, coordination, and voice, even underneath authoritarian management.
"Venezuela is just not a misplaced trigger"
Lastly, Venezuelan opposition chief María Corina Machado lately received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize "for her tireless work selling democratic rights and a peaceable transition from dictatorship to democracy". How was this prize perceived by Venezuelan opposition figures, together with you?
With delight and vindication.
Her award is a recognition of a battle that tens of millions of Venezuelans have carried for many years. It honours not solely her braveness, however the braveness of each one that stood in line to vote figuring out the regime was making an attempt to steal the election. It reminds the world that Venezuela is just not a misplaced trigger.
Do you see her recognition as an actual signal of change or only a symbolic gesture?
It’s symbolic – however symbols matter.
Symbols hold a trigger alive when the world needs to maneuver on. They restore morale when persons are exhausted. And so they enhance the price for dictators to maintain repressing.
In Ukraine, humour is a coping mechanism. What retains Venezuelans from giving up?
Humour, music, baseball, religion, and household. Additionally the on a regular basis heroism I've seen in communities: moms who share the little they’ve; youngsters mentoring children after faculty. Authoritarians can shrink your choices, however they haven't killed our capability to look after one another. That cussed hope is our renewable vitality.
What might Ukraine be taught from Venezuela about sustaining worldwide consideration?
I might begin by saying that Venezuelans have quite a bit to be taught from Ukrainians too, particularly from their extraordinary braveness and unity within the face of aggression. The best way Ukraine has defended its sovereignty, and managed to maintain the world's consideration centered, is outstanding.
That stated, if there’s something Venezuela's expertise can supply, it's that we've realized that worldwide consideration should be continually renewed – via human tales, not simply political statements. It’s important to present the world how an extended disaster reshapes folks's day by day lives, and the way its penalties spill throughout borders via migration, vitality and safety.
One other lesson is the significance of constructing broad values-based coalitions – not solely between governments, but in addition between civil society, journalists, and diasporas. These networks are what hold a difficulty alive even when geopolitical winds shift.
Ultimately, each Ukraine and Venezuela are combating completely different variations of the identical battle – to show that fact, dignity and democracy are stronger than concern, brutality and power.
***
And as Roberto Patiño says, "when folks can now not distinguish fact from lies, apathy turns into the enemy of freedom". Which may be essentially the most common warning of all – and the rationale neither Venezuela nor Ukraine can afford to surrender on fact.
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Alina Poliakova, UP
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