Author: dmitriy.vasyura@gmail.com

Putin and Lukashenko have signed a new Union Treaty on security guarantees that allows the deployment of oreshnik ballistic missiles in Belarus. The treaty also provides for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the event of aggression.

The Russian authorities continue their strategic efforts to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military presence in Belarus as a union state. This is stated in the world of the Institute for the study of war (ISW), writes UNN.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a new Union Treaty on security guarantees at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union state in Minsk. Lukashenko has publicly called on Putin to deploy oreshnik ballistic missiles in Belarus. The president of Belarus has put forward a condition that the Belarusian military and political leadership will determine the targets of the Oreshnik if the missile is ever launched from the territory of Belarus. At this request, Putin said that by mid-2025, Russia can deploy Oreshnik complexes in Belarus on the basis of a new Union Treaty on security guarantees and as Russia increases production of oreshnik ballistic missiles. Also, as the Russian President noted, the new security treaty allows Russia and Belarus to use "all available forces and means" within the framework of Russia and Belarus ' mutual defense obligations.

According to the treaty, countries must ensure the security of the borders of the Union state. The new document also provides for the possibility of using Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus in the event of aggression against Belarus.

"The agreement was signed after the publication of the updated nuclear doctrine of Russia on November 19, which officially put Belarus under the nuclear umbrella of Russia and is consistent with the current contractual obligations of Russia with Belarus. The deployment of oreshnik ballistic missiles in Belarus will further increase Russia's military footprint in Belarus and advance the Kremlin's long — standing strategic efforts to erode Belarus ' sovereignty and de facto annexation of Belarus through the Union state, "the report says.

It is worth noting that in addition to this agreement, Russia and Belarus signed 10 more union documents. Among them are the concept of security of the Union state, a decree on uniform rules in the field of consumer protection, a decree on joint measures to combat smuggling, an agreement on the formation of a single electric power network of the market, a decree on the abolition of roaming of mobile devices, a decree on a festive event dedicated to the 80th anniversary of victory in World War II.

However, the president of Belarus is probably still trying to preserve the sovereignty of his state against Moscow. Lukashenka is in favor of keeping Russian weapons deployed on the territory of Belarus under control. However, Lukashenka's attempt has historically failed.

For a long time, Lukashenka has tried to compete with the Kremlin to determine whether Belarus can establish control over Russian military assets, such as advanced S-400 air defense systems. According to state secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander volfovich, only Lukashenka can issue an order on the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in their country. The president of Belarus himself noted that the Russian military will continue to use the Oreshnik system in Belarus. In other words, this means maintaining Moscow's control over any oreshnik ballistic missiles deployed in Belarus.

The ISW notes that the deployment of Oreshnik in Belarus does not increase the risk of ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine and NATO countries, despite the way the Kremlin talks about nuclear weapons.

Russian troops regularly fire at Ukraine with Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles and X-101 cruise missiles, which can carry nuclear weapons.

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On the border with Russia , 100-150 attacks are recorded daily, most of them in Sumy region. The situation in the Belarusian direction is under control, and there is no movement of troops.

Russian shelling struck residential areas and injured 16 people, including one child, in Kherson Oblast over the past day, regional authorities reported on Dec. 7.

Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported that several locations in the oblast and the city of Kherson had come under enemy fire and airstrikes.

He said the enemy also launched three missile attacks on the Beryslavskyi district of the oblast.

According to Prokudin, Russian forces attacked residential areas in the settlements of the oblast and damaged 16 private houses.

The attack also damaged a gas pipeline, a grain warehouse, a gas station, and private cars.

The Kherson Military Administration reported separately on its Telegram channel that a 57-year-old man was hit by a Russian drone in Vesely and taken to hospital with leg injuries.

Kherson Oblast is the frequent target of attacks.

On Dec. 1, Russian attacks killed three people and injured eight. A few days after, on Dec. 4, another attack killed two people and injured five.

These attacks follow recent developments at the Ukrainian front line, where military forces are locked in a battle over small islands in the Dnipro River.

Control of the islands would allow Moscow to intensify attacks on the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine.

On Dec. 4, Prokudin suggested that Russia was preparing for another offensive toward Kherson, hinting that that front may be about to heat up.

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European diplomats are preparing for a scenario where the United States, under the leadership of Trump, may stop helping Ukraine. Borrel recommends that Ukraine develop its own weapons production as the most effective way to continue the fight.

European diplomats fear that European military aid to Ukraine will have to double if US President-elect Donald Trump stops funding the United States, writes UNN with reference to the Guardian.

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Former EU foreign minister Josep Borrel recommended radically changing Ukrainian arms production during 2025, as this is the cheapest and most effective way for Ukraine to continue fighting.

However, European officials are confident that Ukraine will receive a поз 50 billion loan, which will be repaid at the expense of interest received from frozen Russian assets in the amount of 2 280 billion, this was announced by the G7 countries back in October.

The U.S. is expected to cover a кредиту 20 billion loan in the first U.S. tranche to be paid before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. However, it is not clear whether he will later be able to legally withdraw from the agreement, trying to force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table. Therefore, the EU said that they can agree to compensate for most of the deficit.

Now, since the Russian invasion, Europe has provided Ukraine with assistance in the amount of 46 billion euros, while the United States has provided about 65 billion euros. This is without taking into account assistance to finance Ukraine's debt.

Before the inauguration of Donald Trump, which will take place in January 2025, The Joe Biden administration is promoting military aid packages. However, European diplomats fear that if the war continues in 2025, European aid will have to double.

Josep Borrel believes that the West can still help strengthen Ukraine's position by increasing domestic arms production.

"If you want to support Ukraine's military efforts, give them money to develop their own military-industrial potential," the official said. "This is much more effective than buying weapons here in Europe and sending them. Ukrainian engineers have shown an incredible ability to quickly produce what they need.

Borrell also warned that Russia's electronic warfare means that 80% of 155-mm guided artillery shells, which are mainly supplied by the United States, are clogged. Therefore, Ukraine should return to using cheaper and less accurate ammunition, which cannot be blocked.

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The Pentagon allocates військової 725 million in military assistance to Ukraine, including three types of remote mining systems ADAM, MOPMS and Volcano. The aid package also includes drones, MANPADS, and anti-tank missiles.

Russia has lost 751,910 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Dec. 7.

This number includes 1,300 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day.

According to the report, Russia has also lost 9,514 tanks, 19,535 armored fighting vehicles, 30,948 vehicles and fuel tanks, 21,055 artillery systems, 1,253 multiple launch rocket systems, 1022 air defense systems, 369 airplanes, 329 helicopters, 20,042 drones, 28 ships and boats, and one submarine.

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