Category: Politics

PoliticsWar The fall of the Assad regime might weaken Putin’s position during peace negotiations with Ukraine. Tuesday, December 10, 2024

The Kremlin has actively supported Assad since 2015, when Russian troops intervened in the Syrian civil war, providing him with military and political assistance. Therefore, the rapid fall of the Assad regime could lead to a serious political crisis in Moscow, as the Kremlin is trying to maintain its military positions in Syria. Assad’s fall is also a massive blow to Russia’s status on the international stage as a reliable security partner and weakens Moscow’s strategic position in the region. It also negatively affects Putin’s ambitions to create a multipolar world in which Russia and other authoritarian allies would play a key role. Moreover, the CNN senior editor believes that the fall of the Assad regime increases concerns about the instability of the Putin regime itself, casting doubt on its ability to maintain power in Russia. “The collapse of the Assad regime could potentially weaken Putin’s position in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, especially if Putin’s latest nuclear threats are perceived as empty talk,” the analyst notes.

FinancePolitics Ukraine has approved the terms to receive a 40-year $20B loan secured by frozen Russian assets. Tuesday, December 10, 2024

The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the terms of receiving a 40-year loan of up to $20B from the American Federal Financing Bank (FFB). This is part of the previously agreed upon G7 initiative to provide $50B to Ukraine that will be repaid using frozen Russian assets. According to the government resolution, the funds will be transferred to Ukraine through the Financial Intermediation Fund, established by the World Bank on October 10. The agreement provides for the conclusion of a certificate purchase agreement Ukraine, the FFB, and USAID with Ukraine as the borrower, a loan guarantee and repayment agreement between Ukraine and USAID, as well as Ukraine’s issuance of a debt certificate in favor of the FFB, secured by a USAID guarantee. The loan will bear interest at a rate of 1.3% per annum plus the current average rate on one-year US Treasury bonds, and its disbursement and repayment will be made from the proceeds of Russia’s frozen assets.

FinancePoliticsWar Ukraine might receive less aid from the US after Trump’s inauguration, but Russia is also running out of money. Tuesday, December 10, 2024

US President-Elect Donald Trump said that he will try to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine will probably receive less aid after he takes office. Meanwhile, Russia may lose its primary sources for financing the war. According to a forecast from Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, the oil market may face a decline in prices in the next two years. Brent may fall to $60 (-15% compared to current quotes). This possibility exists because of increased production in the US and spare capacity in Saudi Arabia. Rosneft’s budget for next year includes a price of $45-50 per barrel for Russian Urals, which is 30% less compared to the current price of $63.48. As well, the Russian government’s foreign exchange reserves are approaching exhaustion: The National Welfare Fund’s liquid assets as of December 1 decreased to $53.8B from around $140B before the full-scale invasion. The fund will allow Russia to survive for several years at oil prices between $55-60, but it will not be enough to address a new large-scale crisis.

PoliticsWar Details from the meeting between Zelenskyy, Trump, and Macron: The leaders discussed freezing the war and how to end it. Tuesday, December 10, 2024

During the meeting between President Zelenskyy, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, and US President-Elect Donald Trump, the leaders discussed freezing the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian president said. At the same time, he emphasizes that it is possible to force Russia to end this war only when Ukraine is strong and has strong security guarantees. “Right now, we cannot be in NATO, but an invitation to NATO may be possible. And we already need such security guarantees,” Zelenskyy added. Also, he said that while Ukraine is not in NATO, Macron’s proposal to send troops to Ukrainian territory as part of a European peacekeeping force could be an option. However, it is necessary to clearly understand when exactly Ukraine will be accepted into both the EU and NATO. In turn, Trump, after the meeting in Paris, stated that he was formulating a concept for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. According to Trump, Putin has lost, so now it’s time to think about peace.

Politics A German chancellor candidate and the Estonian Prime Minister arrive in Kyiv; Merz supports providing the Taurus to Ukraine. Tuesday, December 10, 2024

The German chancellor candidate from the CDU/CSU, Friedrich Merz, said during a meeting with President Zelenskyy in Kyiv that he supports the provision of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. The primary opponent of incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz states that he and his party understand Ukraine’s need to deliver long-range strikes on military facilities in Russian Federation territory. In turn, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal and his Estonian counterpart, Kristen Michal, signed a joint statement in Kyiv that defines the main directions for further cooperation between the countries. The document emphasizes strengthening strategic partnerships, unity in the fight against Russian aggression, and developing bilateral relations in security and economy. Estonia supports the strengthening of sanctions against Russia, the Ukrainian Victory Plan, and Ukraine’s European integration aspirations. Michal stressed that joining NATO is Ukraine’s only reliable mechanism for security guarantees. Shmyhal also recognized Estonian defense support that exceeds €540M.

PoliticsWar Sweden and Denmark have ordered 40 infantry fighting vehicles, Estonia will test its latest anti-aircraft missiles, and the second batch of Danish F-16s has arrived in Ukraine. Monday, December 9, 2024

Denmark and Sweden have jointly ordered and paid for 40 CV 90 infantry fighting vehicles from the manufacturer, Hägglunds, for a total of SEK 25B (€2.1B).

The Estonian defense company Frankenburg Technologies will start testing of its innovative anti-aircraft missile with an AI-powered guidance system in Ukraine next year. An agreement between Ukraine and Estonia to conduct the tests has already been concluded.

Also, President Zelenskyy announced that the second batch of F-16 fighters transferred to Ukraine by Denmark had already arrived in Ukraine.

As well, within the framework of the Czech Drony Nemesis initiative to purchase drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, over CZK203M (€8M) has been collected during the year. About 12,000 drones have been sent to Ukraine, and another batch of 3,000 is ready to be shipped.

EconomyPolitics EU ambassadors can’t reach an agreement on the 15th package of Russian sanctions because of Lithuania and Latvia. Monday, December 9, 2024

Representatives of EU countries were not able to approve the 15th package of sanctions against Russia, aimed at its elusive shadow fleet. According to EU diplomats, Lithuania and Latvia blocked the adoption of the package due to disagreements over an extension of the deadline given to European companies to withdraw their investments from Russia, which has allowed them to operate in Russia despite the sanctions. Some companies are abusing this loophole, enabling them to remain in Russia. The European Commission promised to consider Lithuania and Latvia’s requests in the 16th package. The 15th sanctions package is expected to be submitted for further discussion during the meeting of EU foreign ministers on December 16. Current EC proposals provide for adding 29 legal entities and 54 individuals to the sanctions list. For the first time, companies from China will appear on the sanctions list for their support of Russian aggression. There is also talk of new measures to combat the shadow fleet, including 48 tankers placed on the blacklist.

Politics Zelensky will discuss the situation in Ukraine with the EC. Monday, December 9, 2024

An EU summit, the first under Antonio Costa’s European Council presidency, will be held on December 19. “The situation in Ukraine will be at the center of our discussions. We must stay with Ukraine for as long as necessary and do everything possible to ensure that the Russian invasion is defeated and international law prevails,” Costa said. According to him, this meeting is a significant opportunity to send a single, unambiguous signal of support for Ukraine and a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace. “I invited President Zelenskyy to come to Brussels on the occasion of the European Council meeting to share with us the latest developments on the ground and his views on how Europe can best support Ukraine,” Costa said. In turn, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes it is possible to agree on a common strategy with future US President Donald Trump regarding the Russian war in Ukraine. When asked whether Ukraine might have to agree to territorial concessions to stop the fighting, Scholz said that nothing should be decided over the heads of the Ukrainians.

PoliticsWar The US has promised to “flood” Ukraine with weapons by mid-January and will provide a $988M military package. Monday, December 9, 2024

The US will provide Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of additional artillery shells, thousands of missiles, and hundreds of armored vehicles by mid-January, stated the US President’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, at a meeting with the Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak. The US has also promised to support Ukraine by training military personnel, which will be carried out abroad. All this is happening in parallel with the finalization of an agreement to provide Ukraine with a $20B loan guaranteed by profits from frozen Russian assets. In addition, the US will introduce several new sanctions against Russia in the coming weeks. All of this is being done to complicate Russia’s ability to maintain military operations and strengthen Ukraine’s position at the negotiation table. In addition, the Biden Administration announced the 22nd defense assistance package to Ukraine under the USAI initiative, totaling $988M. It will include HIMARS ammunition, unmanned aerial systems, equipment, components, and spare parts for servicing various types of military equipment.

Politics Zelenskyy meets Trump in Paris: The next US leader says Ukraine is ready for a deal, but the Ukrainian leader demands peace guarantees. Monday, December 9, 2024

French President Emmanuel Macron persuaded US President-Elect Donald Trump to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart in Paris, where world leaders have gathered to reopen Notre Dame Cathedral. After the meeting on December 7, Trump said that Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to conclude a deal with Russia to “stop this madness” and called for immediate negotiations. Commenting on the meeting with the US and French leaders, Zelenskyy called it productive and stressed that Trump is “determined.” At the same time, he noted that the talks on ending the war with Russia should focus on strong peace guarantees, as the war cannot be ended with a piece of paper and a few signatures. “Putin is sick of wars. He can only be stopped by force. We are counting on America and the whole world to stop Putin. The only thing he is afraid of is America and the unity of the world,” Zelensky added. The Kremlin, in turn, stated that Russia is open to negotiations, and that Putin outlined his conditions back in June.