Category: Politics

PoliticsWar The US will provide Kyiv with a new military aid package worth $725M, but Biden will not have time to spend the billions that have been allocated to help Ukraine. Friday, November 29, 2024

The Biden administration is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine worth $725M. It will provide a variety of anti-tank weapons from American stocks. The package is also expected to include anti-personnel mines, drones, Stinger missiles, ammunition for HIMARS systems, and cluster munitions. This package will be one of the largest provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), allowing weapons to be transferred from Pentagon warehouses. Biden has access to another $4-5B in PDA funds that he wants to use before Trump’s inauguration on January 20. However, according to the WSJ, the Biden administration will not have time to spend all of this money before the inauguration, because the US would have to send more than $110M in weapons every day, which is unrealistic. The Pentagon plans to transfer weapons worth $500 to $750M monthly, mostly ammunition and artillery, which are easier to transport.

PoliticsWar What scenarios are the Trump transition team considering to end the war in Ukraine? Friday, November 29, 2024

The incoming National Security Advisor to US President-Elect Donald Trump, Mike Waltz, is studying several options for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Among them are proposals from General Keith Kellogg, whom Trump appointed as special representative for the war in Ukraine. Currently, the Trump administration is seeking a quick ceasefire. This would temporarily freeze the conflict and create conditions that would allow negotiations between the parties. It is anticipated that Ukraine’s European allies and NATO will be called on to contribute more financially toward Ukraine’s support. Kellogg’s scenario provides for military assistance to Ukraine on the condition that it participates in peace talks, and Ukraine’s accession to NATO will be postponed indefinitely to encourage Moscow to dialogue. Another proposal includes the creation of “autonomous regions” in Ukraine. The possibility of Russia retaining control over the occupied territories in exchange for Ukraine’s accession to NATO is also being discussed. Sebastian Gorka, incoming Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism, emphasized that Trump is ready to issue an ultimatum to Putin: “Either you start negotiations, or the aid that has been provided to Ukraine will seem like a trifle compared to what will happen next.”

FinancePolitics What financial support have international partners promised Ukraine in the coming years, and will this be enough to repel Russian aggression? Thursday, November 28, 2024

The agreements already concluded by Ukraine with its allies give grounds for optimistic expectations regarding the external financing deficit in 2025 being covered, analysts noted. In 2025, the Ukrainian government and the IMF expect to receive $13.7B from the EU through the Ukraine Facility, $19.1B under the ERA plan from the G7 and the EU, $3.1B from the IBRD, $2.7 billion from the IMF, and $1 billion from the UK. Together, these contributions from external donors should provide Ukraine’s budget with $41B. However, international donor commitments for 2026 barely reach $21B. Starting from the second quarter of 2027, in the absence of new financial guarantees, Ukraine will face the problem of a colossal external financing deficit. Experts also emphasize that the existing commitments are not enough to provide powerful resistance in the war against Russia, as well as for further economic recovery.

PoliticsWar Ukrainians want their country to regain its nuclear status more than they desire NATO membership. Thursday, November 28, 2024

After the war’s end, among the main priorities for the state’s development, Ukrainians include the restoration of the state’s nuclear status in the top three most desired priorities, while accession to NATO was in seventh place. The top three strategic development directions for the Ukrainian state after the war’s end include infrastructure restoration (37%), building the military (32%), and introducing a mechanism to restore the state’s nuclear status (25%). Creating legislative conditions that enable rapid economic growth was named by 23% of respondents, and 22% named the opening of new enterprises and industries. Also, 21% of respondents named intensifying actions to join the EU as a priority, and 19% named accession to NATO. For another 17%, state support for small and medium-sized businesses is a priority, and for 16%, support for socially vulnerable population segments. Next on the list was a reboot for the state, based on new principles, the adoption of a new Constitution, and establishing conditions for Ukrainian refugees to return home with 14% each.

Politics The European Parliament has approved a new EC team, which promises support for Ukraine. Thursday, November 28, 2024

On November 27, the European Parliament approved the European Commission’s new composition, proposed by EC President Ursula von der Leyen. Twenty-six European commissioners were approved. Former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will become the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, replacing Josep Borrell. Her main task will be to protect the EU’s interests and promote the cessation of war and conflicts on the European continent. Italian far-right politician Raffaele Fitto will become the European Commission VP. Lithuanian politician Andrius Kubilius will become the EU Commissioner for Defense. During his first 100 days in office, he will prepare a strategic document outlining security and defense together with Kallas. The EU enlargement policy will be overseen by Slovenian representative Marta Kos, who called for political, economic, and financial support for Kyiv and facilitated Ukraine’s accession to the EU as a priority. Von der Leyen also promised to support Ukraine despite signs of declining support for it in some EU countries and the US.

FinancePoliticsWar The US promises to provide Ukraine with everything it needs to fight Russia in 2025; the G7 works to finalize its $50B loan. Thursday, November 28, 2024

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the G7 countries and their partners are determined to provide Ukraine with everything it needs to successfully conduct military operations in 2025 or hold peace talks with Russia from a position of strength. He stressed that the US continues to increase its military assistance to Ukraine in order to improve its defensive capabilities, particularly in the country’s east, where intense fighting continues. Separately, the official expressed concern about North Korean troops participating in the war on Russia’s behalf, noting that this aspect is of grave concern among the G7 countries. Blinken emphasized that Ukraine’s struggle has global significance: “Ukraine is fighting for us. It is fighting not only for itself; it is fighting for all of us.” Blinken also confirmed that the G7 countries are finalizing a $50B loan to Ukraine, secured by frozen Russian assets. The loan is planned to be provided by the end of this year.

PoliticsWar Biden asks Congress for $24B to help Ukraine before he leaves office. Thursday, November 28, 2024

US President Joe Biden has quietly asked lawmakers to allocate another $24B to help Ukraine and replenish stocks of previously transferred American weapons, citing a request submitted on November 25 from the White House Office of Management and Budget. It is expected to be considered by December 20. It is also expected that $16B will be allocated to replenish American stocks and another $8B to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. As part of this program, the Pentagon concludes contracts with manufacturers to supply weapons to the Ukrainian military. Biden’s request has caused outrage among some Republicans. Senator Mike Lee stated, “Congress should not give Kyiv gifts so that it further sabotages the possibility of peace talks.” Meanwhile, Ukraine has received $4.8B from the World Bank through the PEACE project. This money will be directed to reforms, social programs, healthcare, and reconstruction. Ukraine has already received almost $50B during the war through World Bank mechanisms.

PoliticsWar NATO members condemn the attack on Dnipro; Rutte calls Ukraine a priority for the Alliance. Thursday, November 28, 2024

A NATO-Ukraine Council meeting was held at NATO headquarters in Brussels, where the parties discussed Russia’s use of a new ballistic missile. NATO members confirmed their support for Ukraine and noted that the attack on Dnipro is viewed as another Russian attempt to terrorize the civilian population. “The deployment of these weapons will not change the course of the conflict and will not deter NATO allies from supporting Ukraine,” said NATO spokeswoman Farah Dahlallah. The day before, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte voiced his priorities in office. The first concern is strengthening defense so that NATO is able to protect against threats and prevent war. The second is supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, which North Korea, China, and Iran facilitate. Rutte emphasized that the more assistance Ukraine receives, the sooner the war will end. The third priority is addressing global challenges to Euro-Atlantic security. In turn, European Commissioner Didier Reynders called accession to the EU Ukraine’s primary security guarantee.

EnergyPolitics After the inauguration, Trump may move to eliminate Russian oil and gas industry earnings. Thursday, November 14, 2024

The Russian Federation still makes a great deal of profit from oil and gas supply to EU countries, but this may change after Donald Trump takes office as the US president. Trump is anticipated to provide support for the US oil and gas industry to stimulate the production of these resources. In addition, the EU stated that they are open to purchasing more American LNG.

During his election campaign, Trump talked about increasing oil production in the US and ending the inflationary crisis. The initial market reaction to Trump’s election victory was muted, but in the medium term, it is expected to strengthen the US’ role as a leading exporter of oil and LNG. This scenario would see energy companies receive less profit, but consumers pay less for energy resources. As a result, Russia will also fall short of generating the significant funds it spends on its war with Ukraine.

Currently, the Russians have a reserve of economic capacity sufficient to last until the middle or end of next year, but after that, their economy could collapse without oil and gas revenue.

PoliticsWar The European Commission has approved €300M in financing for five defense projects. Friday, November 15, 2024

The European Commission approved funding for five defense projects, each of which will receive €60M. Most of the projects also include purchasing defense products for Ukraine, particularly air defense and missile defense systems and ammunition. Joint purchases are expected to strengthen defense readiness in EU countries.

EU members will jointly purchase critical defense products in three areas for the first time. These are anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense, modern armored vehicles, and ammunition. Two projects will strengthen air defenses – Mistral and Jamie. The Edirpa project will support the purchase of armor, and the other two projects will support the purchase of ammunition. Different countries will participate in each project, with four to nine states in each. In total, 20 of the 27 EU members will participate.

In addition to the selected projects, other promising proposals were submitted. They have been added to a reserve list, identifying them as possibilities for future funding.