Category: Politics

EconomyPolitics How do sanctions against Russia work, and what new restrictions are being prepared for the aggressor? Monday, November 25, 2024

Moscow allocated $7B to purchase microelectronics for the military-industrial complex but was not able to complete the purchase due to sanctions, said the Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy. Chinese banks have also begun to refuse payments related to the Russian military-industrial complex for fear of falling under secondary sanctions. The US Treasury Department announced a new sanctions package, including restrictions against Gazprombank and six foreign subsidiaries, more than 50 international Russian banks, and more than 40 securities registrars. As noted by the head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshny, almost all of the largest Russian banks have lost access to the global financial system, and some have already stopped currency settlements. New US sanctions may eliminate the only way for European consumers to pay for energy resources from Russia. Hungary and Slovakia, which have long-term contracts with Gazprom, called the new restrictions “a threat to the energy security of Central European countries.” Meanwhile, the EU is working on its 15th package of sanctions, including measures against the Russian shadow fleet.

PoliticsWar Europe must double its defense spending after Trump’s inauguration; Poland will produce explosives and ammunition. Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Europe will probably have to double its defense spending to address the challenge of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, as well as a possible reduction in American support with Donald Trump’s presidency, writes Bloomberg. In particular, the 15 largest European NATO members will have to increase military investments by $340B a year to $720B.

Earlier, the former president of the European Central Bank said that Europe needs to expand its defense industrial capacity to ensure that the region’s fundamental values ​​do not disappear. After decades of underfunding, rearmament on this scale could take more than 10 years on the continent.

Meanwhile, Poland has decided to establish production of nitrocellulose and gunpowder, necessary for large-caliber ammunition. Plans for constructing ammunition factories in the country were also announced.

“Poland should produce 155-mm ammunition independently. Our goal is not one plant, but several, as well as joint efforts with partners in NATO and the EU,” the Minister of Defense said.

The government will allocate almost €700M to build the first plant; the work should start in a year in Tarnów.

PoliticsWar Zelenskyy presents an internal sustainability plan to the Ukrainian Parliament. Wednesday, November 20, 2024

The plan contains 10 points that address issues of unity, human capital, and cultural sovereignty. Zelenskyy plans to present the full version of the plan together with its annexes next month. These are the key points:

1. Unity – The President dismissed rumors of a wartime election being likely.
2. The front line – There must be a fundamental change in approach to management in the military, and a military ombudsman should be created. The Ministry of Defense and military command must introduce a new system of contracts for citizens who have not reached mobilization age. A reduction of the mobilization age is not being pursued.
3. Weapons – During 2025, Ukraine must produce at least 30,000 long-range drones, 3,000 cruise missiles. This year, the country has managed to produce more than 2.5 million mortar mines and artillery shells.
4. Money – The state must purchase what it can produce independently.
5. Energy – Passports of stability of regions will be created by the end of the year, and generation passports next year. Nuclear generation and hydrocarbon extraction are priorities.
6. Security – Modernization of shelter standards and strengthening of the state border are needed.

PoliticsWar The US announces a new military aid package to Ukraine, and France and Britain do not oppose Ukraine’s use of long-range strikes, but want restrictions. Wednesday, November 20, 2024

In the coming days, the US will announce a new package of defense aid to Ukraine, said the permanent representative of the US to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, at a meeting of the UN Security Council. She also called on other countries to support the Peace Formula promoted by the Ukrainian side because “Ukrainians should get the security they deserve”.

“And let me state clearly, when this war ends a sovereign, independent, democratic Ukraine will control its internationally recognized territory and continue its path to joining Euro-Atlantic institutions such as NATO,” the US representative stated.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian military and political circles report that the governments of Britain and France do not object to Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles in Russian territory, but these strikes should be limited to the Kursk region.

However, the Italian government declared that it would not allow Ukraine to use Italian weapons for attacks on targets in Russia.

Politics The final declaration of the G20 summit contains no condemnation of the Russian Federation’s actions. Wednesday, November 20, 2024

In the statement from the G20 leaders that was adopted at summit in Rio de Janeiro’s conclusion, there is only one mention of the war in Ukraine.

“Regarding the war in Ukraine, we highlight the human suffering and negative collateral consequences of the war on global food and energy security, supply chains, macro-financial stability, and inflation. We welcome all appropriate and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace, supporting all goals and the principles of the UN Charter to promote peaceful, friendly, and good-neighborly relations between peoples,” the declaration reads.

The FT notes that unlike the document prepared at last year’s G20 summit in New Delhi, this year’s communiqué did not condemn Russia’s nuclear threats, nor did it demand an end to attacks on food and energy infrastructure. Some European delegations argued for tougher wording condemning Russia after its latest massive attack. But in the end, these demands were abandoned, fearing that it could derail the entire declaration.

PoliticsWar Germany provides Ukraine with a military aid package containing ammunition and hundreds of UAVs. Thursday, November 21, 2024

The German government announced another package of military aid for Ukraine, which includes tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition of various types, 47 vehicles with mine protection (MRAP), four Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers, three WISENT 1 demining tanks, hundreds of UAVs, and 100,000 small arms with ammunition.

In addition, Poland is already preparing its 45th military aid package for Ukraine.

Also, the US State Department has approved the potential sale of $100M worth of military equipment and services to Ukraine. Ukraine wants to receive equipment and services for vehicle repair, technical assistance, training, and other relevant logistics and program support elements.

Meanwhile, South Korean intelligence claims that North Korea has sent additional howitzers and rocket launchers to Russia. The North Korean troops stationed in Russia have already participated in combat together with Russian units.

PoliticsWar Europe and Canada must unite to guarantee Ukraine’s security amid Trump’s return to the White House. Thursday, November 21, 2024

As stated in an open appeal, which was signed by 79 current and former politicians, military personnel, and political scientists who are anxiously waiting to see what Trump will do when he begins his second presidential term, the Polish Prime Minister has called for the creation of a coalition of states ready to guarantee Ukraine’s security and deter further aggression by Russia. The Baltic countries, the Nordic countries, Britain, France, Canada, and the Netherlands could all join Poland in the intiative. By changing politics on the ground, the coalition will encourage others to join it, and Europeans and Canadians will be able to defend themselves and their interests regardless of US actions.

The signatories propose to implement five points, which include: arming Ukraine for victory jointly, confiscating all Russian frozen assets to finance Ukraine’s victory, and expanding air defenses over western Ukraine to provide cover for coalition troops on the ground. It is also proposed that real security guarantees, including mutual defense, be provided before Ukraine joins NATO, and the coalition will undertake to spend at least 3% of GDP annually on defense and jointly purchased equipment.

PoliticsWar The US is providing a $275M military aid package, Denmark is preparing additional F-16s, and the German parliament is reviewing its Taurus authorization. Thursday, November 21, 2024

US President Joe Biden approved the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine. The decision is a radical change in his policy and comes in response to the intensification of the Russian offensive in the eastern regions of Ukraine. The Pentagon also provided Ukraine with a new $275M aid package, which includes HIMARS ammunition, 155 mm and 105 mm artillery ammunition, mortar shells, drones, TOW missiles, and Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems.

As well, Denmark plans to transfer two parties of American F-16 fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, making it 19 aircraft in total. So far, Ukraine has already received six fighters from Copenhagen, which also continues to train pilots.

Moreover, now that the US and UK have allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles, the Bundestag will reconsider transferring Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine, despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s refusal to provide them.

PoliticsWar The Economist predicts the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine in 2025. Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fighting between Russia and Ukraine could end in 2025, as both sides are close to exhaustion. The Russian economy is suffering due to Western sanctions, labor shortages, and people leaving the country. Inflation in the country has reached double digits, interest rates have soared to 21%, and 40% of the budget is devoted to the war.

In parallel with this, the pressure on Ukraine to start one or another form of negotiations with Russia may increase next year. As part of a possible agreement, Ukraine “will have to come to terms with the loss of part of its territory.” However, the country must receive reliable security guarantees, with the ideal option being full NATO membership.

“However, with Trump’s return to power, Ukraine will probably not join NATO for many years, but it may still receive certain security guarantees,” the article says.

President Zelenskyy previously stated that Trump will not be able to force Ukraine to make territorial concessions, but Ukraine seeks to end the war no later than 2025.

FinancePoliticsWar The EU will spend the revenue from frozen Russian assets on armaments for Ukraine. Thursday, November 21, 2024

The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, proposed directing a significant part of the future second tranche of revenue from frozen Russian assets to the Ukrainian defense industry. According to Borrell, by the end of the year new supplies of military equipment for Ukraine will also be financed from the same source. From the first tranche of these funds of €1.5B, the EU invested €400M in the Ukrainian defense industry, which paid for the production of Bohdana howitzers.

Currently, Borrell proposes that a significant part of the second €1.9B tranche, which will become available in March or April, be used to purchase military equipment for Ukraine from the country’s manufacturers.

Ukraine’s European partners’ plans regarding the use of the profits from the frozen assets were also confirmed by the Minister of Defense of Germany, Boris Pistorius. He added that the EU has managed to transfer the promised one million artillery shells to Ukraine, so currently Ukrainian and Russian troops have reached parity in this regard.