Making robust lineup choices every week may be essentially the most difficult a part of the fantasy soccer course of. Whenever you’re torn between two related gamers and easily don’t know which to begin, begin the participant with the superior matchup.
Ah, however precisely how does one decide one of the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings present a schedule-independent methodology to guage positional matchups every week, rating all 32 opposing defenses so as of most to least favorable for opposing gamers in any respect 4 ability positions (quarterback, working again, extensive receiver and tight finish). As an alternative of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed knowledge to point out how every protection fared relative to the problem of the schedule it has confronted. This gives a fairer method to judging the standard of particular person matchups.
Now that 5 weeks are within the books, solely the newest 5 weeks’ numbers can be used going ahead.
“Adj. FPA,” or Adjusted Fantasy Factors Allowed, displays how far above or beneath gamers’ weekly PPR fantasy level averages that protection held opponents at that place. A constructive quantity implies that the matchup is favorable; a damaging quantity means it’s unfavorable. Moreover, bear in mind groups typically use a number of working backs and extensive receivers in a sport, and these plus/minus averages cowl all of a group’s personnel at that place.
Lastly, a caveat: Matchups are just one ingredient in my rankings components. Not each favorable matchup needs to be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup averted. If you need my — and ESPN fantasy workers’s — most full supply for whom to begin and sit every week, seek the advice of our weekly rankings.
Matchups spotlight: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (at Baltimore Ravens). He’s taking part in a few of his greatest soccer over the previous two weeks, he’s performing exceptionally on deep throws (fourth-ranked 133.7 passer score on throws at the very least 20 yards downfield), and he has arguably one of the best No. 1-2 extensive receiver mixture in soccer in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams (209.7 fantasy factors mixed, 47.4 greater than another group’s high two). Now Stafford enters Week 6 with 9 days’ relaxation, going through a Ravens protection that’s injury-ravaged and performing horribly via 5 weeks. DT Nnamdi Madubuike (neck), a key to their go rush, is out for the season, and S Kyle Hamilton, CB Marlon Humphrey and LB Roquan Smith are all query marks. With all 4 sidelined final week, C.J. Stroud scored 28.76 fantasy factors towards these Ravens.
Others to love: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at Miami Dolphins); Bryce Younger, Carolina Panthers (versus Dallas Cowboys); Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (at Washington Commanders).
Matchup to keep away from: Justin Fields, New York Jets (versus Denver Broncos). He goes from one of the favorable matchups within the Cowboys to one of many hardest within the Broncos, and if his mobility makes you much less apt to stress about his matchups, contemplate that 20.50 of Fields’ 25.92 fantasy factors towards the previous final week got here within the last 19 minutes and 33 seconds and in clear rubbish time, throughout which period he had solely two dashing makes an attempt. Fields gained’t have it wherever close to as simple in London towards the Broncos. They’re ranked top-10 defensively towards quarterbacks, top-10 towards the go with at the very least a one-score lead, top-10 towards the go within the fourth quarter, and top-10 towards cell quarterbacks.
Matchups spotlight: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders (versus Bears). His workload is slowly creeping upward, and in Week 5, he set season highs by taking part in 49% of the offensive snaps, dashing 14 instances with a 50% share and working 10 routes. That’s loads of alternative to do injury towards a Bears protection that surrendered 33.5 fantasy factors, essentially the most by any particular person working again in a sport all season, to Ashton Jeanty in Week 4. Between LB T.J. Edwards’ (hamstring) absence in Weeks 3-4, which may prolong into this week, and DE Grady Jarrett’s underperformance, the Bears have formed up as one of many place’s most favorable matchups.
Others to love: Kyren Williams, Rams (at Ravens); Chuba Hubbard/Rico Dowdle, Panthers (versus Cowboys); Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders (versus Tennessee Titans).
Matchup to keep away from: Derrick Henry, Ravens (versus Rams). Lamar Jackson’s (hamstring) availability has a bearing on Henry’s efficiency, as Henry has averaged 0.55 fantasy factors per offensive snap performed with Jackson on the sphere, however solely 0.33 with him on the sidelines, in his two-year Ravens profession. No matter Jackson’s standing – and the group’s Week 7 bye makes him appear reasonably iffy — Henry’s matchup towards the Rams is one in all his hardest, making this one of many uncommon weeks the place he’s a mid-to-low fantasy RB2. Sure, Christian McCaffrey simply dropped 27.9 fantasy factors on this protection, however the Rams additionally held Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor to a mixed 24.1 factors in Weeks 3-4.
Matchups spotlight: Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers (versus Cowboys). This would possibly effectively be a breakthrough week for the rookie extensive receiver, who has encouraging utilization patterns so far. Each McMillan’s 25.9% goal share and 5 crimson zone targets rank thirteenth on the place, his 0.54 routes run per offensive snap ranks 14th, and his 0.25 targets per route price ranks twenty third. He’s additionally Bryce Younger’s high deep menace, with a team-leading seven targets thrown at the very least 20 yards downfield, which performs particularly effectively to the matchup. The Cowboys have surrendered 515 yards receiving to extensive receivers on throws at the very least that deep, simply the league’s most, in addition to 5 touchdowns.
Others to love: Davante Adams, Rams (at Ravens); Xavier Worthy, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (versus Detroit Lions); DJ Moore, Bears (at Commanders).
Matchup to keep away from: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (versus Chargers). He performed a extra outstanding position in Tyreek Hill’s absence in Week 5, absorbing a 26% goal share whereas scoring a season-high 23.0 fantasy factors, however his emergence because the Dolphins’ No. 1 receiver may imply extra defenses keying on him within the coming weeks. The Chargers have been probably the greatest defenses towards extensive receivers, largely because of the efficiency of CB Donte Jackson, who has allowed solely 15.6 fantasy factors on 138 protection snaps as the closest defender, per Subsequent Gen Stats. Opposing WR1s have averaged solely 16.9 factors on 10.2 targets towards this protection.
Matchups spotlight: Jake Tonges, San Francisco 49ers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). He has touchdowns in back-to-back video games, and his 11 targets in Week 5 tied for the group lead. Now Tonges will get one other gentle matchup, towards a Buccaneers protection that has already seen three totally different sub-20%-started tight ends rating 12 or extra fantasy factors towards them (Kyle Pitts Sr., Dallas Goedert and AJ Barner). That Tonges noticed three red-zone targets in Week 5 makes him an particularly engaging fill-in for this week, because the Buccaneers have already surrendered 4 touchdowns to tight ends inside the crimson zone, tied for the league’s most.
Matchup to keep away from: Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons (versus Buffalo Payments). Talking of Pitts, he’s off to a better-than-expected begin (11.6 fantasy factors per sport, tenth amongst TEs), however this isn’t per week to belief an enormous rating is coming. The Payments have restricted Mark Andrews, Juwan Johnson and Hunter Henry, the three most outstanding tight ends they’ve confronted so far, to a mixed 13.9 factors on eight targets.
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