Connor Hellebuyck’s Vezina-and-Hart-Trophy-winning marketing campaign in 2024-25 seemed like a throwback to a different period. Whereas tandems have largely outlined the trendy crease, Hellebuyck, together with a handful of others, suggests the traditional No. 1 goaltender is much from extinct. We’d simply should redefine it.
Let’s have a look at the final 16 seasons of information — eight seasons earlier than the Vegas growth, eight seasons since. From 2009-10 to 2016-17, the common crease share of a top-12 fantasy goalie was 74.1%, with a median of 35.2 wins and 215.7 fantasy factors. Amongst all groups, 25% had a goaltender with 75% crease share or increased and 54.2% had at the least 65%.
From 2017-18 to 2024-25, the common crease share of a top-12 fantasy goalie was 65.0%, with a median of 32.6 wins and 181.2 fantasy factors. This time, solely 7.9% had a goaltender with 75% crease share or increased and 33.3% had at the least 65%.
(The 2012-13, 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons have all been prorated to 82 video games.)
The common goalie spent lots much less time within the crease since the latest growth. Solely two goalies had a crease share bigger than 75% in 2024-25, and you already know precisely who they’re, as Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy are answerable for 11 of 20 such campaigns. Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy are a transparent focus of energy right here. Except for them, solely Juuse Saros and Carey Value have hit 75% twice.
Within the 2009-10 to 2016-17 stretch, previous to growth, there have been 17 goalies with a number of particular person seasons of at the least 75% crease share and solely 11 others who managed it simply as soon as. It wasn’t a focus of energy then; goaltenders with large workloads had been frequent.
But when we decrease the bar just a bit, as a substitute of the traditional 75% threshold, we get some development in single-goalie utilization after we make 65% the minimal for a “No. 1.” Whereas we had solely eight in 2023-24, there have been 15 that took at the least 65% of their workforce’s crease final season.
Tying all of it collectively, 65.0% is a good threshold for crease share for a top-12 fantasy goalie since 2017-18. It’s an excellent goal for the set-and-forget number of goaltender, particularly in leagues with weekly lineup modifications that don’t will let you shuffle in backups for an evening.
That’s 15 goalies that acquired and may proceed to obtain 65% of their workforce’s crease. Blackwood and Knight didn’t get 65% on the season as an entire, however cleared it when contemplating simply the time with their new groups.
However we will add a couple of extra to the checklist. Accidents and veterans in the best way performed a task in retaining 5 different goaltenders from clearing the bar final season however we will pencil them in for this season, with no tandem in sight.
There’s nonetheless a necessity to watch tandems for the approaching season. Firstly, simply because a goaltender will get the workload, doesn’t imply they get the fantasy outcomes. Simply ask Saros and the Predators from final season.
Secondly, there may be worth, particularly in every day lineup leagues, in leaning into tandem deployments due to the price of acquisition, as they go in drafts a lot later than the full-time starters.
Thirdly, tandems don’t have to remain tandems ceaselessly. Goaltenders, particularly younger ones nonetheless getting their ft moist within the NHL, can emerge from a time-share to grow to be a drive in fantasy.
So let’s verify on the 12 remaining NHL groups that don’t essentially have a goaltender projected to get 54 or extra begins (65%) for the approaching marketing campaign, introduced in alphabetical order.
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2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
It wouldn’t be a shock to see all 4 goaltenders get reps this season, however Luukkonen has essentially the most upside. The underside line to recollect is that except the Sabres are far more aggressive than they’re projected to be, there isn’t more likely to be a lot fantasy worth. Even the “starter” barely cracked 30 factors final 12 months.
2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
Andersen and Kochetkov are in all probability destined to separate time, as Kochetkov has earned sufficient belief. If the Canes weren’t in a compete window, we might in all probability see extra of a altering of the guard, however they’re, so we must always see loads of the dependable Andersen. This tandem may be one of many uncommon ones value drafting into, as each Andersen and Kochetkov ought to return worth.
2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
Fedotov provides some competitors, however Greaves posted stellar numbers in simply 11 appearances final season, so he actually has essentially the most shine heading into 2025-26. The Blue Jackets seem poised to win extra, that means whoever emerges from the fray may very well be a sleeper, however any form of break up places a cap on non-streaming utilization for all. That stated, Greaves is somebody to stash for keeper leagues if he and the workforce proceed to take strides.
2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
Ideally this isn’t even near a tandem, as Gibson ought to be a No. 1 for a membership at this stage of his profession. However he’s toiled by means of so many down years with the Geese that it’s a real query as as to if he’s pale general or simply wanted this alteration of surroundings. Suppose again to Darcy Kuemper right now final season: Usurped in Washington and off the fantasy radar; solely to storm in, recapture his magic and end close to the highest of the pack for goaltending. Gibson is a stable funding on the draft when you’re prepared to attend.
2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
Is that this a tandem? Ideally for the Oilers, it’s not even shut to 1. However Skinner retains leaving the door ajar for Pickard to steal away begins. Although it is a workforce destined for 50-plus wins and Skinner is actually the 1A, it’s simply laborious to belief latest outcomes. Did you even do not forget that they each gained the identical variety of video games within the playoffs this previous summer time? Skinner will likely be given the possibility to take the ball and run with it, however he actually shouldn’t get drafted as if that’s fait accompli.
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2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
Can I get away with simply writing “nothing to see right here”? I’m going to strive. Let’s see if it will get printed.
*Editor’s notice: Advantageous
2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
We noticed some indicators of potential from Blomqvist early within the season, some indicators of life from Jarry late within the season and Silovs is a wild card. The large image is that the Pens are possible within the draft lottery competitors greater than the wins column, so fantasy ends in the crease will likely be restricted. However with Sidney Crosby nonetheless driving the bus, we will’t fully low cost the likelihood that the Penguins stumble right into a groove and that certainly one of these three advantages from it.
2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
Someday within the subsequent two to a few seasons, the Sharks will emerge as a contender. That bodes very nicely for Askarov as he develops right into a full-time starter. With Nedeljkovic possible forming a tandem this season, Askarov remains to be a season or two from full-time standing, however don’t look away if San Jose heats up. Within the meantime, Askarov ought to be stashed in keeper leagues.
2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
That is our gold customary for tandems, with each goaltenders eclipsing 100 fantasy factors final season. They completed No. 11 and No. 16 in fantasy factors from the crease, regardless of neither cracking 50% in share. The Leafs return with an equally formidable defensive recreation beneath coach Craig Berube, and early ADP tendencies clearly favor Stolarz (82.3 vs. 207.9), which makes Woll the goaltender to focus on.
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2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
Demko stays on a team-friendly deal this season, however his wage jumps subsequent 12 months, locking the Canucks into $13 million for the Demko-Lankinen duo by means of at the least 2028-29. Lankinen was a powerful fantasy pickup whereas Demko was injured final season, although each stumbled down the stretch. Demko has top-tier fantasy potential with a heavy workload, however Lankinen’s emergence possible limits him to round 45 begins if each keep wholesome. Demko is a stable mid-round decide, although you might need to insure him with Lankinen within the late rounds.
2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
Hill is the prime age for goaltenders (actually; within the knowledge above, the common age of a top-12 fantasy goaltender is 29). His 59.7% crease share was a profession excessive, and this season his stamina will likely be examined, with solely Schmid backing him up. There’s a powerful case for together with Hill among the many starters talked about above. His ADP because the eighth goalie off the board is justified — a real tandem appears unlikely in Vegas this season.
2024-25 season
2025-26 roster
Though final season was practically a 50-50 tandem, Thompson emerged because the superior goalie. He possible earned a bigger share this season, but it surely will not be sufficient to crack the fantasy elite at his place. There’s additionally the query of whether or not the Capitals will repeat something near their shock President’s Trophy-winning marketing campaign. That stated, Thompson’s ADP because the No. 13 goalie is a reduction, and Lindgren is value contemplating as insurance coverage.
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