Article for the Polish Eastern Flank Institute, revealed on October 20, 2025
The battle in Ukraine was the results of a complete complicated of errors in international coverage that had been made since independence. For the reason that early Nineteen Nineties, our management has declared the so-called multi-vector coverage, the intention to have good relations with each the West and Russia, attempting to profit from each instructions. Along with the truth that such a coverage led the nation to nice bother and didn’t enable it to withstand exterior influences for a very long time, this allowed us to obtain financial advantages from each Europe and the US (by way of loans and investments), in addition to to benefit from preferential costs for Russian fuel and have entry to Russian markets. Russia, in the meantime, was systematically rising its affect throughout the nation, supporting loyal political events and particular person figures, in addition to by way of financial stress – by way of vitality carriers and investing in strategic enterprises, propaganda within the media, and assist for the Russian-speaking surroundings.
However maybe crucial mistake was exactly the underestimation of Russia and extreme belief within the safety ensures established by the Budapest Memorandum. When the battle started in 2014, not one of the main powers got here to the rescue, limiting themselves to sanctions in opposition to Russia. This reveals that worldwide agreements with out clear safety on the "floor" are merely an empty place, on which, searching for area, battle will certainly come.
We point out Ukraine at this time exactly due to the scenario our nation finds itself in, within the 4th 12 months of a full-scale battle, the likes of which humanity has not but seen within the twenty first century. I can not say whether or not the whole lot described above applies to anybody else apart from Ukraine. There is just one factor we are able to say: Russia is militarizing at this time, its economic system is operating on army rails, and its society is being pumped with propaganda. What it did to you, its neighbors, yesterday remains to be value checking, and why it’s doing it at this time is one thing that must be clarified. And at this time, Russians see no cause why they need to cease. The battle within the heart of Europe has not solely affected each Ukrainian, it has turn out to be world, with the roar of the outdated world collapsing, and is about to knock on neighbor's door. A neighbor who lives with us on the identical small flooring, referred to as Europe. We’ll discuss it. About Europe – as a neighbor in a world battle.
Within the fourth 12 months of the battle, it may be said with confidence that the occasions that started exactly in February 2022, like all main battle, led to the collapse of the concepts and theories that held up the very notion about peace. All those that thought they knew the whole lot, or those that thought of fear a panacea, had been disillusioned, even deeply. Everybody concerned on this battle, even those that watch it, noticed one thing they’d not deliberate and anticipated. Some even now, within the agony of disappointment in their very own illusions, proceed to assert that the whole lot that’s occurring solely considerations them. Nevertheless, the reality is that for some it’s grief and ache, and for others it’s nonetheless a dry chronicle. Nevertheless, it’s undoubtedly a whirlwind of occasions that can change the world ceaselessly.
What is occurring at this time on this whirlpool that’s gaining momentum with the tacit consent of the not current outdated world?
On the evening of September 27-28, 2025, 552 UAVs, at the very least 2 ballistic missiles, and at the very least 31 cruise missiles had been used over the territory of Ukraine. The evening of September 6-7 was the most important use of air assault weapons – 776 on the identical time. Most not too long ago, about two dozen Russian drones entered Poland, of which three or 4 had been shot down utilizing extraordinarily costly missiles.
Inside a number of days, Russian planes had calmly entered Estonian airspace. They had been pursued by two Italy`s most trendy fighters NATO F-35, that took off to intercept from an air base 50 km from Tallinn.
The Telegraph quickly eloquently described NATO's response. "The Italians started normal interception process, flapping their wings backward and forward. The Russians flapped theirs in response. Then one of many pilots raised his hand and waved amiably. Over the following 12 minutes, the Italian pilots accompanied the Russians all the way in which to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad – an unprecedentedly very long time for an incursion into NATO airspace," the report says.
So, connecting solely these occasions with the vortex of complete battle, we are able to make a easy conclusion: whereas Europe decides whether or not their response was decisive sufficient, the Russians are releasing the following 1000’s of drones, and the Ukrainians, surviving on their very own, proceed to realize time for his or her neighbors. Time to eliminate illusions firstly.
As soon as once more, 4 years of combating define revolutionary adjustments in army affairs. It’s already potential to say with confidence in regards to the emergence of a brand new kind of battle and radical adjustments within the artwork of battle for the whole twenty first century. One of many important options of such a battle is that no nation on the earth is ready to independently face up to the present degree of depth of hostilities and totally fulfill the whole vary of protection wants.
So, with the intention to survive, we have to discover solutions to a lot of questions within the context of the continuing battle, however the principle factor is to supply the required personal safety ensures sooner or later.
First, is there an actual means for Ukraine at this time to acquire the required degree of cooperation with Europe to greatest meet the wants of at this time's battle?
In this system of such survival, we’re interested by:
- How real looking is the hope of receiving army help within the type of air protection methods and ammunition from Europe?
- How real looking is it to realize entry to monetary sources to finance one's personal military-industrial complicated within the close to future?
- How real looking is it to realize entry to distinctive European scientific and manufacturing applied sciences, together with satellite tv for pc applied sciences?
- How rapidly can we set up our manufacturing and scale it up in Europe?
Second, is Europe, by stepping up its personal efforts to remodel its protection coverage, actually striving to construct a brand new safety structure? Is there a spot for Ukraine in it?
Right here, bearing in mind personal expertise, it’s acceptable to see:
- Is there the political will to make radical adjustments within the safety panorama of Europe.
- Are there indicators of the formation of the European military as the idea of fight capabilities and future alliances.
- How real looking is the reform and consolidation of Europe's protection business.
- How real looking is it at this time to fulfill Ukraine's pressing wants as a part of the reform of Europe's protection business.
Regardless of the various conversations going down on varied platforms each in Ukraine and Europe, and postponed subsequent sanctions packages, at this time there is just one programmatic doc that has appeared in Europe.
It's in regards to the joint "White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030", which was ready by the Excessive Consultant of the Union for International Affairs and Safety Coverage on March 19, 2025.
Clearly, this doc can also be a response to the work of a gaggle of European consultants led by Mario Draghi (former president of the European Central Financial institution) who in September 2024 ready a complete doc entitled "The way forward for European competitiveness."
For the primary time, it emphasizes in a concentrated method the necessity for Europe's strategic autonomy within the face of rising competitors, together with from america.
Along with describing the issues dealing with the European Union, Draghi's report described an motion plan and demanded the rapid implementation of the desired steps, with a particular emphasis on coordination within the area of European military-industrial complicated.
On this regard, the presentation by the European Commissioner for Defence and House, Andrius Kubilius, of the conceptual doc Joint White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030, is, in fact, a response to the above issues. Certainly, the White Paper identifies each the threats and challenges that Europe faces now and can develop sooner or later, in addition to the instructions for his or her neutralization by way of the event of the European safety and protection sector.
This doc, written beneath the stress of battle, was presupposed to globally persuade Europe that it’s able to defending itself.
In the meantime, for now, this official materials stays for us nearly the one prescribed approach to obtain at the very least some thought of the formation of future European safety, which is clearly nonetheless primarily based on strengthening the European military-industrial complicated.
The extraordinarily complicated scenario that at the moment exists in Ukraine, and my very own expertise, give me the appropriate to have a look at Europe's safety exactly from sensible, together with army, concerns. The principle purpose, in fact, is to search out out extra about whether or not Ukraine will have the ability to totally depend on Europe in a battle of attrition, if not as an ally, then at the very least as a dependable accomplice. The second and no much less vital factor for us is to search out out whether or not Europe understands the necessity to type a brand new safety structure on the European continent.
For this I’ll recall the phrases of a traditional of army technique. Firstly of the twentieth century, he wrote: "… In trendy realities, peace itself is, firstly, the results of violence and is maintained by violence. Each state border is the results of battle, and the outlines of all of the states on the map introduce us to the strategic and political pondering of the victors, and political geography and peace treaties are additionally a strategic lesson…"
So, it’s exactly in gentle of the strategic classes that we in Ukraine have discovered at this time, waging battle with the most important empire on the continent, I want to notice that the very definition of safety and its unconditional achievement relies on pretty easy ideas that don’t change over time, and most significantly – examined by our battle.
The primary is the political will to be able to take sensible, together with unpopular, steps to make sure this safety. An instance of such political will was Winston Churchill (1874–1965), a British politician, Prime Minister of Nice Britain in 1940–1945 and 1951–1955, who’s a key determine of World Warfare II. A logical query at this time: the extent to which residents of EU member states and their political elites are keen to prioritize protection points if this implies, for instance, a deterioration in financial well-being?
The second is well-trained and outfitted armed forces with trendy weapons and trendy doctrines. These armed forces, as well as, should be fashioned into a transparent hierarchical system primarily based on a unified administration system and utility doctrine. Even in our situations, the place the centralized subordination of the protection forces is legally enshrined, there was not at all times sufficient time for joint standardization in issues of armament, coaching, and utility.
The third is the military-industrial complicated. One of many vital parts that determines the readiness of the armed forces to comprehend their capabilities in issues of making certain safety. On the identical time, bearing in mind our expertise, when speaking in regards to the military-industrial complicated as a part of making certain safety, it’s needed to know that globally this military-industrial complicated might be decided by the next standards:
- Availability of uncooked supplies, primarily for the manufacturing of ammunition. It’s particularly vital to search out out whether or not there are sufficient parts at this time, for instance, to provide gunpowder, the idea of all explosives. As you already know, its formulation relies on nitrocellulose. It may be obtained after processing cellulose from industrial hemp, cotton, and wooden. Does this program envisage rising the cultivation of those crops, or maybe it will likely be in cooperation? And the way will the problem of the identical chips and microcircuits which are manufactured in fully completely different world areas be determined?
- The provision of applied sciences and infrastructure (enterprises and transport) that may be expanded and reorganized for max manufacturing particularly within the pursuits of protection. Such infrastructure should be united politically, economically, and with unified requirements and provide chains. Will this not hurt, for instance, nationwide governments, which type their revenues and budgets on the expense of such nationwide infrastructure.
- A workforce of enough amount and ability to fulfill the wants of all industries. Sufficiency and qualification, particularly in high-tech areas, might be decisive within the implementation of any manufacturing packages and requests.
- It’s nonetheless the identical political will when, by way of coercion, propaganda, and calls to meet civic responsibility, the civilian inhabitants is inspired not solely to simply accept sure restrictions, however even to make future sacrifices, even when they’re insufferable.
Subsequently, it’s needed to have a look at this primary systemic doc solely from a strategic viewpoint, particularly within the perspective of not solely its current, but additionally its necessary foresight. The battle in Ukraine, a assessment of the US function in making certain European safety, and the buildup of the fight capabilities of the Russian armed forces past the scope of at this time's battle, ought to type solely a practical imaginative and prescient of the longer term safety structure.
Nevertheless, analyzing the doc, wanting particularly at our and the European perspective, we are able to state that the declared distribution of cash is totally not sufficient to realize the principle purpose of this doc. Sadly, Europe wants each political will and time.
Talking particularly about political will as the principle driver of such progress, it’s needed to know that at this time which means the success of those initiatives will depend upon the political will of all 27 completely different nations. These nations, having gone by way of an especially troublesome path to membership, nonetheless have completely different priorities, sources, and visions of the risk. That’s most likely why the White Paper continually emphasizes that protection stays the prerogative of particular person states and a matter of unanimity, as supplied for by the Treaty on European Union. Whether or not it will turn out to be a think about slowing down or blocking key protection initiatives stays to be seen. Nevertheless, it’s undoubtedly not possible to realize the implementation of the essential precept of a centralized method to forming one's personal safety in such an method.
Relating to the manufacturing base, a large area for work can also be opening up. It must be famous that in accordance with the identical Draghi report, greater than 60% of protection purchases in Europe are made within the US. That is as of at this time. However this must be expanded, and accordingly, a fragmented army industrial base throughout nations will clearly require political will and time to scale. When speaking about personnel, it’s needed to recollect the well-developed labor legislation, which doesn’t enable to neglect the working situations requirements. It’s troublesome to say whether or not there are sufficient specialists at this time and the place their preparation might be organized.
We now have understanding of who’s at the moment working in factories in Europe. It’s already potential to foretell how it will have an effect on the growth of manufacturing capability. In fact, talking the truth is about preparations for "not World Warfare II," this White Paper additionally declares the need for management within the area of synthetic intelligence, quantum applied sciences, hypersound, and robotics. Nevertheless, by way of funding, human sources, and maturity, all of those industries in Europe are a few years behind the US and China. It’s apparent that reaching such formidable objectives by 2030 isn’t very actual.
It must be famous that the principle causes for the creation of the European Union had been the need for peace and stability, the stimulation of financial growth by way of a standard market, and the assist of democracy and customary values. All this was accompanied by an absolute safety assure from the US and NATO. Subsequently, it’s logical that the European Union itself at the moment lacks clear mechanisms of so-called coercion. Consequently, there is no such thing as a foundation for the implementation of political will. Subsequently, the implementation of the intentions said on this doc might be carried out on the idea of "motivation" and "encouragement", with out creating necessary mechanisms. This, in fact, encourages giant nations resembling France, Germany, Italy to proceed creating nationwide initiatives. Different nations will stay exterior of such alternatives. How it will have an effect on the declared capabilities of the remaining nationwide armed forces of EU nations remains to be unknown.
Trying on the implementation of such a challenge, it’s value noting that, regardless of leaving NATO as a precedence for safety, the EU is already creating cooperation inside Europe. For instance, by way of the Kensington Treaty between Nice Britain and Germany, The Aachen Treaty between Germany and France, renewed the Lancaster Home Treaties between Nice Britain and France. Are these treaties taken into consideration sooner or later imaginative and prescient, and what, for instance, is the function of the UK, which isn’t a member of the EU however is situated on the European continent and nonetheless has its personal potential?
This program doc has already been extensively studied and analyzed. Its richness in declarative statements and formulations allowed a large circle in Ukraine to search out each advantages and disadvantages on this doc. For us, the principle factor stays that, regardless of the formidable objectives said concerning assist for Ukraine, all it will seemingly be carried out with out deadlines and mechanisms for necessary implementation, and because of this – with out acceptable ensures.
So, regardless of excessive expectations, it’s in Europe's safety, in its sensible sense, that dependence on the US will stay. On the identical time, emphasizing cooperation, interplay and competitiveness of the military-industrial complicated, The White Paper offers broad alternatives to advance our particular person pursuits and opens the way in which to participation of Ukraine, as a rustic exterior the EU, on an equal foundation, maybe to "enter" the military-industrial complicated as soon as united by the true affect of Russia. Within the absence of binding mechanisms, our important exercise would be the lively promotion on the authorities, enterprise, and knowledgeable ranges of the Ukrainian military-industrial complicated personal pursuits as a part of the possibly opening European market. It’s essential to combat for finance, know-how, and manufacturing with each nation that pursuits us, remembering that the idea of our energy is in our applied sciences and practices of use. It’s this method that won’t solely shield Ukraine, however may also flip our military-industrial complicated into a degree of financial progress, much like what occurred in Israel and South Korea.
Subsequently, regardless of the willpower of European nations to take extra duty for their very own safety, particular ideas for a brand new protection structure most likely solely sometime will start to take form. Thus, in opposition to the background of proposals for the consolidation of the protection business and the declaration of collective fight capabilities, the White Paper for the interval till 2030 doesn’t plan the principle – the formation of joint army constructions throughout the EU and constructions able to managing them.
All this reveals that although the White Paper declares that the EU will put together to discourage exterior armed aggression and for this function the EU Member States should possess the total vary of army capabilities, it stays unclear, who within the EU might be chargeable for implementing joint initiatives, creating joint capabilities, and managing and utilizing these capabilities throughout the framework of, for instance, joint operations or airspace management exterior NATO borders?
Talking particularly about army capabilities, I might additionally like to notice that their acquisition in trendy situations is feasible solely by way of the implementation of the one one complete system of transformations in a lot of industries:
- growth and implementation of latest applied sciences;
- a radical reform of the military-industrial complicated, carried out inside a strict state program;
- logistics and procurement, bearing in mind fast and dramatic adjustments in wants;
- managing processes not solely on the battlefield, but additionally in state constructions to realize an outlined political purpose;
- the construction of the Protection Forces and the Armed Forces, as the principle carriers of capabilities;
- doctrines of coaching and utility of all parts of the protection forces.
It’s then apparent that the EU will rely solely on NATO and, accordingly, the US to make sure its personal safety by 2030. So it’s undoubtedly untimely to speak about Europe's strategic autonomy from the US. The EU will seemingly enhance the share of its personal weapons in parallel, attempting to extend manufacturing volumes, together with those who might be produced along with Ukraine.
The formation of a brand new European safety structure might be not thought of a precedence activity by 2030. And whether it is being thought of, it is just declaratively and specializing in the re-equipment of the nationwide armed forces of the EU nations. Accordingly, in its international coverage, the EU will concentrate on preserving the prevailing format of making certain its personal safety, attempting to maintain, to begin with, the US within the focus of its consideration.
Accordingly, the involvement of Ukraine as a full participant sooner or later European safety structure isn’t thought of both formally or in precept, besides partial use of fight expertise and help within the battle with Russia, following a technique of avoiding battle by supporting an already warring neighbor.
It’s apparent that till there aren’t any parts of a protection system in Europe, the one approach to obtain such needed integration of Ukraine into the European protection system, primarily air and missile protection, is to proceed working with NATO and its members that share borders with Russia or have historic warnings. That is nearly the one approach to bypass each political and different blockades throughout the EU, although such a step carries important geopolitical dangers for member states.
Nonetheless, talking of readiness for battle as the principle issue of fight functionality, I want to remind that our expertise in waging such a battle already demonstrates that:
- The battle may be lengthy. And so this fully adjustments the method to the group of the Armed Forces.
- New applied sciences have arrived on the battlefield, mastering which requires not solely a substitute of weapons, but additionally a radical change in technique, doctrine, and coaching.
- The battle has really turn out to be hybrid. It’s being waged with absolute brutality each on the entrance traces and contained in the nation, utilizing the whole lot, together with the data capabilities of the state.
- It’s in trendy conflicts that the function of the personal sector has grown and continues to develop, which requires a totally completely different method to shaping relations between the state and personal enterprise. A so-called public-private partnership seems, which includes permitting personal enterprise and international capital not solely to manufacturing, but additionally to the event of weapons and army gear.
- In a battle of attrition, personnel play a vital function. Their coaching and training turn out to be essential. This is applicable not solely to army operations administration, but additionally to the military-industrial complicated, the place, within the context of the mixing of scientific facilities and manufacturing, the mixing of universities and, for instance, design bureaus can also be needed.
- The important thing to profitable fight operations is efficient logistics and materials and technical assist. They’re the precedence targets in a battle of attrition. Sadly, such issues can’t be solved just by reviewing transport corridors. And it is usually vital to do not forget that the idea of logistics is uninterrupted provide, together with electrical vitality, which, as is already clear, should not solely be protected, but additionally defended. This identical electrical energy, in its absence, has a painful affect on each civilian infrastructure and folks. This can be a complicated of measures that can not be executed with out army participation. Conclusion: European safety, regardless of the objectives declared within the doc, will proceed to rely solely on the steadiness of Ukraine and its Armed Forces, in addition to future efficient partnership.
As anticipated, the creation of a brand new structure for the European continent will take at the very least 5 years, which might be accompanied by each inertia related to the hope of preserving a suitable lifestyle and overcoming limitations in a democratic society.
I might additionally like so as to add that over the just about 4 years of the battle in Ukraine, Russia has been systematically studying to combat higher. It has already constructed a brand new military that collects, analyzes, and instantly implements fight expertise. All of this culminates within the growth of latest doctrines and coaching packages. The nationwide composition of prisoners getting into the Armed Forces of Ukraine may point out the switch of this distinctive expertise to nations resembling China, Iran, and North Korea. And due to this fact, this means the inevitable large-scale reform of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, each through the battle and, probably, within the post-war interval.
Taking into consideration the traits within the growth of scientific and technological progress within the situations of contemporary fight operations and the completion of the formation of a essentially new doctrine of warfare, such a reform will clearly be accomplished no later than 2030. These might be armed forces of robots, autonomous methods, and synthetic intelligence, united by expertise and already current doctrines. Most significantly, they are going to have the ability to scale their new capabilities to the required degree. This might be a brand new arms race for the appropriate to regulate the worldwide safety system. It’s already straightforward to foretell the individuals on this new arms race. These are actually not those that solely need to rearm profitably. I don't see all this within the constructions of NATO armies, which is able to most likely be prepared for battle with armies that not exist.
Trying again on our historical past, maybe one other downside of our former leaders was suspending unpopular steps for the sake of short-term recognition and following populist guarantees.
Clearly, with the intention to speed up institutional protection readiness in a democratic society, it’s essential to conduct a dialogue with this society. Who will begin this dialogue first, whether or not it’s the European governments or the Russian military, relies on us and our companions.
Solely our joint work will enable Ukraine to share not solely its grief, but additionally its distinctive expertise of waging battle, which is able to assist EU nations enhance their protection methods as quickly as potential, and never solely within the area of defense-industrial cooperation.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ambassador of Ukraine to the UK, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (2021 – 2024)
