After a high-level U.S. go to to Belarus led to the discharge of 14 prisoners, observers have been left questioning what autocrat Alexander Lukashenko might have secured in return.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s particular envoy to Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg’s go to to Minsk on June 21 marked the highest-level diplomatic contact the remoted regime of Alexander Lukashenko had with the U.S. in years.
The journey was additionally marked by the liberating by the Lukashenko regime of 14 prisoners, together with probably the most notable of Lukashenko's political opponents — Siarhei Tsikhanouski.
With the launched prisoners within the highlight, each events to the negotiations have been obscure relating to the outcomes of the assembly. However members of the Belarusian opposition in exile and political analysts all agreed Lukashenko was in search of some type of worldwide legitimacy, in addition to sanctions aid.
"For Lukashenko, the go to is a reasonably robust legitimizing step," stated Lesia Rudnik, the director of an exiled unbiased Belarusian assume tank, the Middle for New Concepts.
“I consider we’re firstly of a dialogue … however I believe we’ll see a reasonably gradual improvement of the state of affairs.”
Lukashenko has been ostracized by the West over his help for Russia’s battle in opposition to Ukraine and brutal suppression of freedoms in Belarus. His worldwide contacts have been restricted to China, Vietnam, Iran, and African states which have minimal commerce turnover with Belarus, and, more and more, native Russian officers. The one Western nations which have up to now damaged the diplomatic freeze are Russia-sympathetic EU states Hungary and Slovakia.
As for the U.S., analysts counsel Washington may have been trying to deter deeper Belarusian involvement within the battle, whereas additionally probably securing a overseas coverage win for Trump amid stalled peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
Rigorously choreographed breakthrough
The path to Kellogg’s top-level assembly in Minsk was blazed practically a yr in the past underneath the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden, with low-profile behind-the-scenes conferences and occasional prisoner releases.
Essentially the most tangible results of Kellogg’s mission was the sudden liberating of 14 prisoners, together with Tsikhanouski, former RFE/RL journalist Ihar Karnei, and residents of Estonia, Latvia, and Poland, who have been launched from prisons in Belarus and delivered to neighboring Lithuania. U.S. President Donald Trump marked the discharge with a celebratory put up on his social media platform, Reality Social.
“President Trump now has the facility and alternative to free all political prisoners in Belarus similar to that. And I ask him to take action.”
As soon as seen as an unlikely candidate for early launch, Tsikhanouski was freed after serving 5 years of an almost 20-year sentence. Jailed forward of Belarus’s 2020 presidential election, his arrest prompted his spouse, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, to run in his place. Regardless of election observers discovering she had gained the election, Lukashenko claimed victory, sparking mass protests in Belarus that lasted for months.
At a press convention in Vilnius following his launch, Tsikhanouski appealed to Trump to assist free different political prisoners in Belarus.
“President Trump now has the facility and alternative to free all political prisoners in Belarus similar to that. And I ask him to take action,” Tsikhanouski stated.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who, since being compelled into exile, has led the Belarusian opposition, hailed the releases, pledging to “proceed to work intently with President Trump’s administration and with all our allies on either side of the Atlantic to attain the liberty of each political prisoner.”
European leaders, together with EU Fee President Ursula von der Leyen, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, Polish International Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, and others, additionally welcomed the U.S. diplomatic efforts and the liberating of the political prisoners.
Following 4 years of steady, harsh repression, Lukashenko all of a sudden pardoned 18 political prisoners in July 2024, then continued to launch small batches of political prisoners each month for half a yr. Tsikhanouski stated he had heard speak of his potential launch in August 2024.
In February, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christopher W. Smith made an unannounced go to to Belarus, securing the discharge of a U.S. citizen and two Belarusian political prisoners.
John Coale, Kellogg’s deputy, throughout a low-profile go to to Minsk in Could facilitated the discharge of twin U.S.-Belarusian citizen Yuras Ziankovich. The sooner contacts paved the best way for Kellogg’s high-profile go to, accompanied by Smith and Coale.
The publicity surrounding the go to signifies that the events “have reached a minimal stage of mutual belief,” commented Valery Kavaleuski, a former Belarusian diplomat and ex-member of Tsikhanouskaya’s shadow cupboard. He’s at present advocating for the discharge of political prisoners as the pinnacle of the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Company.
Restoring ties?
One factor Belarusian officers did sign was that they anticipate extra in return, together with full restoration of bilateral ties and sanctions aid.
Belarus’s everlasting consultant to the United Nations, Valentin Rybakov, on state-owned Belarusian tv after the Kellogg assembly, stated that Minsk seeks to “normalize” bilateral relations with the U.S., which might entail the complete resumption of embassy operations in each international locations and exchanges of visits by officers.
The U.S. withdrew its diplomats and shut down embassy operations in Minsk in February 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which concerned the use by the Russian navy of Belarusian territory. In accordance with Kavaleuski, the reopening of the embassy lies inside U.S. pursuits in observing and gathering info on the bottom. Reopening on the Cost d'Affaires stage, versus the ambassadorial stage, doesn’t suggest any formal recognition of Lukashenko’s legitimacy.
“With out Europe's participation, the ‘de-isolation’ of the Belarusian regime is not going to be as efficient.”
On sanctions aid, Rybakov and Natallia Esismant, Lukashenko’s press secretary, famous that this had been among the many precedence matters of the dialogue. The New York Instances additionally reported that the matter was mentioned throughout Khristopher Smith’s go to to Belarus in February.
“In accordance with our info, Lukashenko is setting a situation for the lifting of the American sanctions on (potash producer) Belaruskali,” opposition activist and chief of the Folks’s Anti-Disaster Administration initiative, Pavel Latushka, instructed the Kyiv Unbiased.
“The second is the monetary sector, which allows monetary funds,” he added. “The third is the Belavia (…) plane fleet, which incorporates (Lukashenko’s) planes.”
In 2019, earlier than Belarus spiraled into political turmoil, potash, its high export, introduced in roughly $2.9 billion in export revenues. After the EU and U.S. export restrictions have been put in place, Belarus’s share of the worldwide potash market dropped from 18% in 2021 to eight% in 2023, in accordance with the Worldwide Meals Coverage Analysis Institute. Round 5% of the market was misplaced in the USA.
“However with out Europe's participation, the ‘de-isolation’ of the Belarusian regime is not going to be as efficient,” Rudnik from the Middle for New Concepts instructed the Kyiv Unbiased, noting that whereas the U.S. can cancel its personal sanctions, Washington must foyer for his or her aid in Europe.
Analysts agree that to revive the stream of this significant export, Belarus must ease European sanctions and overcome opposition from Lithuania, residence to Klaipeda seaport, previously the chief transit hub for Belarusian potash.
Initially launched in 2021 for human rights abuses, European sanctions on Belarusian potash have been re-qualified as sanctions for Minsk’s help for Russia’s battle in opposition to Ukraine, making them unattainable to cancel till the battle ends, former diplomat Kavaleuski says, citing his current exchanges in Brussels.
Belarus, in distinction, expects reciprocal steps and a "good-neighborly method” after releasing residents of Estonia, Latvia, and Poland, stated Belarus’s KGB Chief Ivan Tsertsel on state-run media, in an obvious reference to European opposition to sanctions aid. Notably, no Lithuanian residents have been included within the launch.
However the European Union has thus far proven no inclination to cut back restrictions on Lukashenko. Fairly the other: the 18th sanctions package deal, just lately blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, proposes to ban all transactions with Belarusian banks, additional tightening restrictions in opposition to Belarus.
"It’s Lukashenko who pushes Belarus nearer to Russia as a result of it’s snug for him."
And Lithuania, one of many EU member states with the strongest voice on the Belarusian subject, sees no grounds for reconsidering sanctions but, in accordance with Lithuanian International Minister Kęstutis Budrys. Conscious of the potential for a veto by Hungary or Slovakia on Europe-wide sanctions, the Baltic state is creating laws for nationwide financial sanctions that would offer for the introduction of private and sectoral restrictions.
Whereas grateful for the discharge and longing for extra excellent news, the Belarusian opposition is cautious about rewarding the regime too quickly.
“Naturally, if the repression stops, and all of the prisoners are launched, it might open new prospects, and one may discuss sure aid from the American sanctions,” Tsikhanouskaya’s advisor Viachorka says, including that at this level, only one.5% of the nation’s 1,100 political prisoners have been launched via U.S. mediation.
“There’s no belief in Lukashenko,” stated exiled activist Latushka, who is understood for his extra hawkish method to contacts with the Lukashenko regime.
“Over the 30 years of his rule, Lukashenko has repeatedly used this scheme of easing sanctions by making beauty concessions to the West.”
Latushka argues that sanctions needs to be eased solely after the discharge of all political prisoners, a halt to repression, and the decriminalization of political life inside the nation. Even after that, restrictions needs to be suspended however not cancelled to make sure the opportunity of swift reinstatement in case of backsliding by Minsk, he stated.
However having launched 14 prisoners, Belarusian KGB Chief Tsertsel reported that one other 14 overseas and Belarusian residents had been arrested in Belarus on fees of espionage and excessive treason in 2025 — in an indication the regime's "conveyor belt" of repression has removed from slowed down.
Washington's curiosity in Minsk
Following his go to to Minsk, Kellogg shared that whereas his deputy John Coale led discussions on the discharge of prisoners, he had centered on the Russia-Ukraine Struggle.
“We all know Trump is, at the start, a dealmaker, and secondly, that success is vital to him,” Rudnik stated of the curiosity of the Trump administration in coping with Belarus.
“And when this doesn’t occur for a very long time, particularly when he promised a lot in his election marketing campaign, it turns into essential to compensate for the shortage of those victories with smaller victories, maybe even a variety of them,” she stated.
Observers interviewed by the Kyiv Unbiased don’t consider Belarus may function a reputable platform for the stalled Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations — an concept that has been floated by the Kremlin, however flatly rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over Belarus's complicity within the battle.
Without having despatched his troops into battle in Ukraine, Lukashenko let the Russian military use Belarusian territory to mount assaults on Ukraine at first of the invasion. He additionally reoriented the Belarusian military-industrial complicated to serve Russian protection contracts, in accordance with a current report by the Belarusian opposition group Belpol.
Apart from “scoring a win” simpler than stopping Russia’s battle, Washington might have warned Belarus in opposition to changing into extra deeply engaged within the Kremlin’s battle in opposition to Ukraine, or escalating tensions with the NATO and EU member states bordering Belarus, analysts counsel.
“Belarus is strategically positioned on NATO’s jap flank between Russia and western states,” Tsikhanouskaya’s advisor Viachorka says. “The much less of a risk Belarus is, the much less protection spending for America.”
Belarus is ready to host the Zapad-2025 (West 2025) joint navy drills with Russia in September. After the Russia-Belarus Union Resolve 2021 drills have been used to disguise the buildup of Russian troops forward of an all-out invasion, any joint drills in Belarus are actually seen as a critical trigger for concern amongst its neighbors.
In an obvious effort to assuage these fears, in Could, Belarusian Protection Minister Viktar Khrenin introduced the drills would contain fewer troops and could be held at a location farther from the border.
The Kellogg go to, Latushka believes, additionally had the goal of figuring out whether or not Lukashenko is able to altering his home or overseas coverage, and the extent of the Kremlin’s affect over him.
Americanist and advisor to the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Company Anton Penkovski instructed the Kyiv Unbiased that the Trump administration is perhaps contemplating the probabilities for the “Finlandisation” of Belarus, a time period that means Minsk would loosen its navy ties with Moscow with out totally breaking off ties.
And whereas having nothing to lose within the occasion of negotiations failing, U.S. diplomats may also have been investigating Lukashenko’s capability to behave independently and have interaction in separate negotiations within the occasion of Russia being weakened.
Certainly, Washington has a historical past of partaking with Minsk at occasions when tensions with Moscow heighten.
Viachorka, nonetheless, just isn’t so positive.
“We regularly hear the message that we have to save Lukashenko from Russia, together with from Belarusian propaganda,” he says. “But it surely’s Lukashenko who pushes Belarus nearer to Russia as a result of it’s snug for him.”
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The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy