If there's one factor that President Trump respects, it's energy. And if there's one factor he detests, it's weak point. It's excessive time for the US president to understand, lastly and conclusively, that Russia is more and more weak and Ukraine is rising stronger technologically. It's additionally excessive time for Ukraine to behave sturdy by stepping up the stress on Vladimir Putin and exposing much more of Russia's vulnerabilities.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t come away from his current journey to Washington DC with what he wished: Tomahawk cruise missiles. Trump refused to decide to supplying the long-range methods. Nevertheless, throughout their discussions, Zelensky appeared to counsel a potential commerce – Ukrainian drones for American Tomahawks. "Ukraine has hundreds of our personal drones, however we don't have Tomahawks," Zelensky stated.
The actual fact that this concept is even being floated is a testomony to the technological progress Ukraine has made in turning into a drone superpower. Kyiv's capabilities have Trump's consideration now greater than ever.
On the identical time, Trump and Putin had an prolonged phone dialog that was alleged to result in a Trump-Putin summit. Predictably, a number of days later the White Home introduced that no assembly was within the works–presumably as a result of Putin, true to trend, rejected a ceasefire and insisted on Ukraine's capitulation. Then, the Kremlin continued finishing up its bombing marketing campaign towards Ukrainian civilians.
Certainly, Trump's previous eight months of attempting to safe a peace settlement within the Russia-Ukraine struggle haven’t fared effectively. A number of instances, Trump has stated he was "two weeks" away from making a choice on Russia. In February, Trump acknowledged that Zelensky "has no playing cards" after which rolled out a pink carpet for Putin throughout their assembly in Alaska, the place Putin lectured him on historic grievances, irritating Trump.
Following Alaska, Putin stepped up his assaults on Ukraine, and Trump grew irate to the purpose of later writing on Reality Social that Ukraine "is able to battle and WIN all of Ukraine again in its unique type." Then got here the chatter about Tomahawk missiles.
However when Ukraine has demonstrated energy, it has caught Trump's consideration. Following Operation Spiderweb in June, when Ukraine launched drones from vans deep inside Russia and destroyed roughly a 3rd of Russia's strategic bomber fleet, Trump privately praised the strike, reportedly calling it "sturdy" and "badass." A report from the Hudson Institute famous that Ukraine may goal the Volga–Don Canal, the rising naval base in Abkhazia, and even Russia's Pacific Fleet.
In current months, as Ukraine elevated the tempo of its drone offensive towards Russian oil refineries, gasoline shortages grew to become the norm throughout Russia. After Trump publicly referenced the shortages, Russian media was pressured to acknowledge the disaster, with one outlet admitting that "it’s not potential to disclaim the indicators of petrol shortages within the areas." Trump even ended up calling Russia a "paper tiger."
For the reason that begin of Russia's full-scale invasion, not less than 11 senior Russian commanders have been killed in motion or assassinated, together with high generals Igor Kirillov and Yaroslav Moskalik, who have been killed in separate bombings in Moscow in December 2024 and April 2025, respectively. Ukraine's navy intelligence (HUR) has helped hunt Russian struggle criminals and Wagner mercenaries in nations as distant as Mali, Sudan, and Syria.
If NATO or allied navies granted Ukraine permission to make use of launch websites in European waters, Kyiv's attain would develop considerably, doubtlessly enabling strikes on navy targets in areas beforehand seen as past its operational envelope, together with St. Petersburg. The Europeans would be capable to use Kyiv's attain as a deterrent for Russia's rising hybrid warfare throughout Europe. In need of that, Ukraine's drone campaigns can nonetheless impose extreme financial prices on Russia by repeatedly disrupting airports and grounding flights out and in of Moscow.
Maybe Ukraine doesn't want Tomahawks as a lot because it appears. First, Kyiv would face challenges launching them as a result of it lacks the required launch methods. Second, as Trump has famous, the US provide is restricted. As an alternative, Kyiv might lean extra on a home cruise missile – Flamingo – and on smarter use of intelligence offered by companions. As Ukraine scales manufacturing and deployment of homegrown missiles, US intelligence help may multiply the impact of these strikes towards Russian oil refineries.
Kyiv has amply demonstrated all through 2025 that it could possibly degrade the Russian armed forces and destroy Russia's power infrastructure with out vital US help. It has confirmed that it’s sturdy and due to this fact deserving of Trump's help, as he likes to again winners.
On the identical time, Russia's staggering losses of personnel, tanks, armored personnel carriers, planes, and helicopters, together with the rising paralysis of its power sector and the regular weakening of its economic system, present that Russia is way weaker than Putin's unwavering bravado suggests.
Whereas Europe scrambles to construct a "drone wall" mirroring Ukraine's expertise, Russia can merely proceed launching drones from ships past that barrier. As an alternative of relying primarily on defensive measures, Europe ought to assist Ukraine scale not solely drone manufacturing but in addition missile manufacturing. A simpler and easy option to blunt the rising drone risk to Europe is to strike at Russian drone factories, one thing Ukraine has already been doing.
"Russia's struggle economic system works, however solely up to a degree. The Kremlin is restricted not solely by short-term manufacturing bottlenecks but in addition by fiscal pressure, an overstretched labor market, technological isolation, and a fragmented defense-industrial base," notes Alexandra Prokopenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Middle.
Regardless of channeling round 40 p.c of its federal funds into protection, Russia's struggle machine is displaying pressure as labor shortages are mounting and Kyiv is now hanging manufacturing hubs with Western-supplied Storm Shadow missiles.
As Ukraine expands its long-range strike capabilities, stress on Russia will solely intensify. "We shouldn't neglect that Ukraine has a really succesful and sturdy protection business, which earlier than 2014 ranked among the many world's high ten protection exporters," stated Luke Coffey, a senior fellow on the Hudson Institute. "We at the moment are starting to see that business recuperate and adapt after the blow it took in 2022."
The truth is that the Ukrainian David has confirmed to be technologically stronger and sooner to adapt than the Russian Goliath. The US and Ukraine ought to acknowledge this reality and construct a partnership rooted in mutual energy and shared benefit. In the event that they cooperate on this foundation, they’ll defeat Russia.
David Kirichenko is an Affiliate Analysis Fellow on the Henry Jackson Society. His work on warfare has been featured in publications such because the Atlantic Council, the Middle for European Coverage Evaluation, and the Trendy Warfare Institute, amongst others. Observe him on X: @DVKirichenko.
Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers College-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and principle, he’s the writer of ten books of nonfiction, in addition to Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires and Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.