The Estonian Overseas Intelligence Service has mentioned that Russia has elevated ammunition manufacturing to such an extent that it successfully signifies preparation for a future struggle past Ukraine.

Supply: Estonia's intelligence report 2026

Particulars: Russian factories produced over seven million artillery shells, mortar rounds and rockets in 2025, up from 4.5 million in 2024. General, ammunition manufacturing has elevated seventeenfold because the starting of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, largely as a result of building of recent manufacturing amenities.

The manufacturing construction in 2025 was as follows:

• howitzer ammunition (122mm, 152mm and 203mm) – 3.4 million
• mortar rounds (120mm and 240mm) – 2.3 million
• ammunition for tanks and infantry combating autos – 0.8 million
• rockets for multiple-launch rocket methods – 0.5 million.

Along with home manufacturing, Russia is actively importing ammunition. Moscow has acquired between 5 and 7 million shells from Iran and North Korea since 2023. In response to intelligence estimates, ammunition from North Korea accounted for as much as half of all shells utilized by Russia to assault Ukraine within the second half of 2025.

The acquisition of this ammunition value Russia round RUB 1 trillion (about €10.6 billion) in 2025. In the meantime, manufacturing prices stay low: for instance, a 152mm shell prices lower than RUB 100,000 (round €1,050), which is a number of occasions cheaper than Western 155mm equivalents.

Quote: "Given this manufacturing progress and substantial imports, Russia is very probably to have the ability to replenish a part of its strategic artillery ammunition reserves even whereas engaged within the ongoing struggle towards Ukraine. For the Kremlin, sustaining such reserves is sort of definitely a crucial aspect of planning for potential future conflicts."

Background:

• Lieutenant Basic Gerald Funke, Chief of the Bundeswehr Joint Help Command Headquarters, warned that Russia may assault NATO nations inside the subsequent two to 3 years.
• On the identical time, NATO plans to conduct large-scale rearmament alongside its borders with Russia and Belarus over the following two years, stockpiling considerably extra weapons and creating an unmanned robotic zone.
• Basic Eirik Kristoffersen, Chief of Defence of Norway, additionally mentioned that Oslo is getting ready for a doable Russian invasion.

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