UK-based Focaldata conducted a massive MRP poll of 31,000 American voters. The results show a likely victory of Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in key states.

Focaldata, a British company, polled more than 31 ,000 voters across the United States over the past month for an innovative type of poll called “MRP.” The results were provided exclusively to POLITICO and, according to them, Kamala Harris is likely to win the U.S. presidential election, reports UNN.

Combining the MRP results with a large-scale online poll of swing states, Focaldata estimates that Harris is likely to take Michigan by a nearly 5-point margin, Nevada by about 2 points over Trump, and by small margins in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Focaldata research suggests Trump narrowly beat Harris in Georgia and North Carolina. Polling data and MRP modeling split on Arizona.

Harris's advantage is due in part to her strong appeal to older white women, a historically right-wing group. Trump has made gains among younger black and Hispanic men.

Context

MRP – which stands for “multilevel regression and post-stratification” – is a statistical model that social scientists use to estimate election results at the state level. It takes a huge national sample and then uses demographic data to estimate state-level results.

The method, dubbed “mega polling,” emerged in the UK in 2017, correctly predicting that Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority in Parliament, while most polls suggested she would win by a landslide.