Category: Politics

PoliticsWar Hungary’s “peacekeeping mission” continues as Orban speaks with Putin for an hour about his US visit on his way to visit Erdogan in Turkey. Thursday, December 12, 2024

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who recently flew to the US to discuss Ukraine with Donald Trump and his team, spoke for an hour with Russian dictator Putin on December 11. “We are taking all possible diplomatic steps in favor of a ceasefire and peace talks,” he noted. The Kremlin reported that the parties discussed the countries’ economic cooperation and the war in Ukraine. Orban said he was interested “in promoting a joint search for ways to resolve the crisis politically and diplomatically.” In turn, Putin complained about Kyiv’s “destructive line” that allegedly excludes the possibility of a peaceful conflict settlement. President Zelensky once again emphasized that achieving real peace “requires the determination of the US, the unity of Europe, and the determination of all partners to adhere to the goals and principles of the UN Charter.” Orban will continue his diplomatic junket with a visit to Turkey to discuss current international affairs, the war in Ukraine, and the conflict in the Middle East with Erdogan.

PoliticsWar Macron plans to discuss the deployment of a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine with Poland. Thursday, December 12, 2024

French President Emmanuel Macron shared an idea for a European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine that could involve 40,000 troops. The mission would become a new safeguard against future Russian attacks, following the Korean security guarantee model. This will be possible with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to end the war’s current phase. Discussion of this mission will be a key topic of Macron’s talks in Warsaw, where he is due to visit on December 12. There are also assumptions that he has already discussed the concept with US President-Elect Trump and President Zelenskyy last Saturday in Paris. Additionally, Macron has conveyed a message to Trump that Europe cannot be excluded from negotiations with Russia, as it has important security interests at stake. France is ready to support this process financially and assume risk to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. The biggest problem, however, remains with Putin’s position: Thus far, he has not given any signal that he is ready to relinquish control over Ukraine.

PoliticsWar The US will sell Ukraine $266M in F-16 equipment and Canada will provide $587M in military assistance. Thursday, December 12, 2024

The US State Department has preliminarily approved the sale of maintenance-related equipment for F-16 fighters to the Ukrainian government, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a statement. Earlier, Kyiv officially requested necessary equipment and services to support F-16 operation. The estimated total cost of the equipment is $266.4M. This assistance package will improve Ukraine’s ability to withstand current and future threats through a more powerful air defense system. In turn, the House of Commons of the Parliament of Canada approved CAD 764M ($587M) for Ukrainian military assistance. The funds will be spent on ammunition, training, and other critically needed resources. The package also provides CAD 400M ($307M) for financial assistance through a special IMF account. Another CAD 45M ($35M) will support humanitarian demining and strengthening Ukraine’s cyber resilience. The decision still must be approved by the Canadian Senate.

PoliticsWar Ending the war in Ukraine will be Trump’s priority immediately after his inauguration. Thursday, December 12, 2024

US President-Elect Donald Trump said that he considers the war in Ukraine a higher priority for him than the conflict in the Middle East. Trump stressed the importance of resolving the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, noting that both countries are enduring huge losses and millions of people are suffering. According to him, although the situation in the Middle East is also significant, it is less complex than the war in Ukraine. Trump wants the US to resolve these problems as quickly as possible. White House adviser John Kirby reported that the Biden administration and President-Elect Trump are discussing several international issues, including the war in Ukraine, the situation in Syria, and conflicts in the Middle East. According to Kirby, these conversations will continue, and outgoing US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s team will brief Trump’s team on its operations. Kirby also noted that Trump’s administration will decide which foreign policy approaches to continue and which to change.

FinancePoliticsWar Poland is calling on Germany to immediately increase defense spending, while France is ramping up purchases of long-range weapons. Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Poland’s Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk believes that Central Europe, including Germany, should increase its defense spending to set an example for other countries following Trump’s victory, who has promised to reduce military aid to Ukraine and NATO allies. Tomczyk supports possible new defense financing schemes, such as issuing joint EU bonds. Berlin, however, opposes this. Tomczyk noted that joint purchases of large quantities of weapons by EU states could open a window of opportunity for better deals with the US. In 2024, Warsaw allocated $46.4B (4.7% of GDP) for defense, while Germany, Ukraine’s largest arms supplier in the EU, will spend 2.1% of GDP (€72B). The French Senate plans to order ammunition including aerial bombs, torpedoes, artillery shells, and missiles for various purposes, in particular SCALP cruise missiles with a 400-km range, for Ukraine. In 2025, €1.9B will be spent on ammunition, which is €400M more than this year.

FinancePolitics Ukraine will continue to receive financial assistance from the countries with which it has signed security agreements. Wednesday, December 11, 2024

As stated by the Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Ihor Zhovkva, leaders from the countries that have signed security cooperation agreements with Ukraine confirm that they will provide financial support in the coming years. Zhovkva recalled that Ukraine has concluded agreements with 27 countries, and their term is 10 years. “A striking example is Great Britain’s position when new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, head of the British government, came to power and stated that he knows about the existence of this agreement and knows what amount was laid down for financing Ukraine’s military needs from Britain, and he will continue to adhere to this amount,” the official said. Zhovkva added that when planning budgets, Ukraine’s allies immediately allocate the amount provided for assistance to Kyiv. Ukraine’s partners remember what amounts were allocated for 2024, and their position moving forward is “no less.”

Politics Ukrainians have started trusting Trump more, but overall trust in Western leaders is generally declining. Wednesday, December 11, 2024

The popularity of future White House President Donald Trump among Ukrainians has increased to 44.6%, according to the results of an Info Sapiens poll. For comparison, 16% trust Trump in France, 30% in Britain, and 37% in Hungary, and these figures all trail the Ukrainian indicator. Analysts suggest this is due to expectations that the new US administration will provide a clearer and more decisive policy towards Ukraine. Some respondents are likely associating individual hopes with the restoration of peace in Ukraine. Trump’s high trust level could also be affected by Ukrainian disappointment in the current US president, for whom a significant drop in the trust indicator was recorded. In general, Ukrainians’ trust in Western leaders has fallen. Most Ukrainians (57.2%) believe their partners must do more to help Ukraine win. The leaders in public trust among Ukrainians are EC President Ursula von der Leyen and Polish President Andrzej Duda – they have virtually identical figures (65%). Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in third place (almost 60%).

PoliticsWar Ukraine is assembling a new Contact Group to end the war. Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Ukraine is forming a list of partners who will join a Contact Group in order to create a common position on ending the war, said Serhiy Nikiforov, Press Secretary of the President of Ukraine. Nikiforov specified that authorities are working on a list of partners who, together with the US, “are capable of ensuring the maximum strengthening of our state. The final list of participants is still being formed, but these are countries that have long-range capabilities, countries that make the largest investments in Ukrainian weapons production, and on which our future in NATO depends,” Nikiforov said. He reported that the Contact Group’s first meeting is scheduled for December. During negotiations, the allies must develop a common position that will guarantee Ukraine’s strength “in any development of events – both in negotiations and on the battlefield.” President Zelenskyy announced the creation of the group during a meeting with German Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz. According to him, it already includes Germany, France, Poland, and the UK and there are plans to include Denmark.

PoliticsWar European leaders discuss ending the war in Ukraine with Donald Trump. Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala spoke with US President-Elect Donald Trump about the war in Ukraine in a phone call. “We discussed Prague’s position on the Russian invasion. I think he is very aware that the situation in Ukraine – and the Middle East – must be resolved and that the solution will be complicated,” the Czech politician said. Fiala said forcing Kyiv to cede territory would only embolden the Kremlin’s military machine. He also called on European allies to strengthen their military capabilities and involvement in Ukraine without waiting for the US to take the first steps. “Our security cannot forever be based on the US’ readiness to defend Europe. We must play a bigger role and take on more responsibility,” the prime minister said. The Czech official warned allies against “appeasement” in Ukraine and stressed that Europe needs the US to show its strength. Simultaneously, pro-Russian Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban flew to Florida to share his views on the war in Ukraine with Trump, Elon Musk, and future national security advisor Mike Waltz.

FinancePoliticsWar The EU defense commissioner wants to increase EU defense spending by 900%. Tuesday, December 10, 2024

EU defense and space commissioner Andrius Kubilius wants the next seven-year EU budget to include around €100B for defense needs. The current seven-year EU budget, which exceeds €1T, only includes €10B for defense.

Kubilius said rebuilding the EU defense industry after decades of decline following the Cold War will require a lot of money. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has previously spoken of the need to increase European defense spending by another €500B over the next decade.

Kubilius said finding the money would be difficult, but without it, all defense plans remain “theoretical.” The new money could come from increasing the EU budget, issuing joint debt, and easing rules for institutions such as the European Investment Bank.

Kubilius suggested that the EU review its fiscal rules regarding defense spending.