Category: Politics

Politics Which NATO member states are against inviting Ukraine to the Alliance? Thursday, December 5, 2024

There is no consensus among NATO members on the issue of extending an invitation to Ukraine, and several countries still oppose it, writes Le Monde. Opponents of Ukraine’s invitation include at least three countries: the US, Germany, and Hungary. However, France and the UK insist on Kyiv joining NATO. Although President Zelenskyy is asking his allies to accept Ukraine into NATO, European leaders are trying to find another solution given the concern held by some countries. At the same time, the US’ position is at least somewhat unclear. President Biden did not intend to make such an important decision at the end of his term, and his successor, Donald Trump, never supported the idea. Meanwhile, Luxembourg Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel spoke out against Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance, stating that “it will bring tension.” At a meeting in Brussels on December 3, he did not support the idea of ​​Ukraine joining the Alliance, as he believed that membership of a country that Russia has attacked could immediately lead to further conflicts.

PoliticsWar By the end of Biden’s presidency, the US will have transferred all $61B in previously allocated aid. Thursday, December 5, 2024

As stated by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the US plans to exhaust Ukraine’s funding that has been approved by Congress by the end of Joe Biden’s presidential term. The Biden administration is going to increase US security support to further strengthen Ukrainian air defense, artillery, and armored vehicle capabilities. “We intend – this is my desire and the intention of the president – to use every cent of the available $61B in funding,” Blinken emphasized. He added that Ukraine’s other allies are also increasing their support. In total, the US has provided Ukraine with $102B in assistance, and Ukraine’s other partners have given $158B. The Pentagon estimates that since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration has allocated approximately $61.4B in security assistance to Ukraine. This includes three Patriot air defense batteries, 12 NASAMS, Avenger and HAWK air defense systems, hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, 31 Abrams tanks, over 300 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, 900 M113 armored personnel carriers, and 20 Mi-17 helicopters.

EnergyPoliticsWar Ukraine needs air defense systems to protect 20 facilities; the UN discusses protection of the Ukrainian energy sector. Wednesday, December 4, 2024

President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine needs additional air defense systems to protect 20 more special facilities from Russian air attack.

Meanwhile, on December 2 the UN discussed the problems of protecting Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure from Russian attack. The event at the UN headquarters was held simultaneously as Russia presented the “Technical Guide to Protecting Critical Energy Infrastructure from Terrorist Attacks.”

UN Assistant Secretary-General for Europe Miroslav Jenca noted that “since March of this year, Russian armed forces have been carrying out large-scale, systematic, and coordinated attacks on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure with the obvious goal of damaging or destroying electricity generation, transmission and distribution facilities throughout the country.”

Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha in Brussels called on Ukraine’s allies to urgently provide additional air defense systems to strengthen the country’s energy resilience in the winter. “Ukraine needs at least 20 additional air defense systems such as the Hawk, NASAMS, or IRIS-T,” Sybiha stressed.

PoliticsWar Two European countries are discussing the deployment of troops on the contact line in Ukraine. Wednesday, December 4, 2024

According to an anonymous senior NATO official, the United Kingdom and France are considering various options to guarantee Ukraine’s security if peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow are launched that lead to a cessation of hostilities.

One possible scenario that could be offered to Ukraine and Russia is the deployment of French and British troops “on the contact line to monitor a ceasefire that may be achieved as a result of the negotiations.” The NATO official said such talks are being held in some countries but not at the Alliance level.

However, European Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho claims that the EU is not discussing the issue of sending troops to Ukraine. “For troops to be sent, all member states must agree to this. There is no such discussion yet. Europe does not yet have a position on this issue,” she said.

In turn, Foreign Policy Spokesperson Anitta Hipper reiterated the EU’s position that “the EU will support Ukraine as long as necessary,” adding that “all options are on the table.”

PoliticsWar The Pentagon reveals Biden’s request for $24B for Ukraine. Wednesday, December 4, 2024

US Defense Department officials have confirmed that the Biden administration will ask Congress for $24B in additional funding to support Ukraine. Of this amount, $8B would be allocated to the USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) program, with $16B to replenish US warehouses and gather new assistance packages under the presidential drawdown authority (PDA).

Supplies under the USAI program can take a long time to be delivered, as they involve ordering weapons for Ukraine from manufacturers. Under the PDA program, assistance is delivered much more quickly, as the US sends Ukraine existing weapons from its own stocks. This funding not only supports Ukraine’s struggle for sovereignty and weakens Russia’s military potential but also strengthens US military readiness through the modernization of weapons systems and direct investment into the US military-industrial complex.

Aid to Ukraine will be included in an exceptional funding package bill, which includes other spending for fiscal year 2025.

PoliticsWar Ukraine will not agree to any alternatives other than NATO membership, although it will not receive an invitation soon. Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Ukraine will not agree to any other options, such as surrogates or substitutes for full NATO membership, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stressed on the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Budapest Memorandum. The ministry recognized that it has failed to prevent Russia’s aggression as a nuclear power against Ukraine, a state without a nuclear arsenal. Failure to implement security guarantees through the Budapest Memorandum has caused a catastrophic increase in security threats for other countries and regions, including Europe. “The only real guarantee of security for Ukraine, as well as a deterrent to further Russian aggression, is only Ukraine’s full membership in NATO. An invitation to NATO now will become an effective countermeasure to Russian blackmail and will deprive the Kremlin of illusions about the possibility of hindering Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration,” the statement said. For now, however, the Alliance’s member states will likely refrain from formally inviting Ukraine to join when NATO foreign ministers meet on December 3-4.

PoliticsWar Putin will not agree to the Trump team’s proposed “peace plan,” but the Kremlin may reconsider it under certain conditions. Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev, who is under Western sanctions, said that Putin is likely to reject the peace plan proposed by Trump’s recently appointed special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. According to Malofeev, for the talks to be constructive, they must address not only Ukraine’s future but the future of Europe and the world. Moscow will seriously consider a peace agreement only if Trump agrees to discuss other global conflicts, including wars in the Middle East and strengthening Russia’s alliance with China, and recognizes Ukraine as part of the Kremlin’s key interests, the oligarch noted. Recall that the Kellogg plan provides that Washington will continue to provide Ukraine with weapons to prevent further Russian attacks – but only if Kyiv agrees to peace talks. The US will also postpone the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO significantly in exchange for a broad agreement with security guarantees.

PoliticsWar The Biden administration urgently wants to provide Ukraine with billions of dollars worth of weapons; Kellogg supports the move. Wednesday, December 4, 2024

US representatives from the Biden administration say that their increased efforts to provide Ukraine with weapons at the end of Biden’s term, along with the president’s authorizations for missile strikes deep into Russia and the deployment of antipersonnel mines, could give Kyiv some room for maneuver. At the same time, they are urging Ukrainian leaders to enlarge their military with more than 160,000 recruits, the WP writes. At the same time, the White House believes that, despite the problems with American reserves, it is better to send as much aid to Ukraine as possible, given the consequences that the war in Ukraine has for international order. Trump’s special representative for the Russian war against Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, reacted positively to Biden’s decision to accelerate and increase military aid to Ukraine. “This is very good for the president-elect because it gives him leverage. And the more the Biden administration does this, the more opportunities for Trump to do what he wants to do,” the official noted.

PoliticsWar Rutte warns Trump of threats to the US if Ukraine is forced to sign an favorable peace deal. Wednesday, December 4, 2024

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that the US would face a “dire threat” from China, Iran, and North Korea if Ukraine has to make concessions in order to end the war with Russia. In an interview with the FT, the secretary-general warned the US president-elect against brokering such a peace deal, which would lead to the West’s enemies planning their own attacks. “We cannot allow a situation where the leaders of North Korea, Russia, China and Iran shake hands because we have reached an agreement that is unfavorable for Ukraine. In the long term, this will become a serious security threat not only for Europe but also for the US,” Rutte said. According to him, when the time comes to negotiate with Russia, Ukraine needs to conclude a “solid deal.” For now, he called on the US to continue providing military support. NATO’s secretary-general noted that there are deep military and economic ties between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran that are fueling the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

InvestmentsPoliticsWar The EU is nearing a deal to create a new defense investment fund. Tuesday, December 3, 2024

EU countries are nearing a deal to create a new €1.5B defense fund that will help strengthen both the bloc’s defense industry and Ukraine’s over the next three years. The agreement to develop the European Defense Investment Program (EDIP) is likely to be signed by the end of the year. It will allow the purchase of military equipment, 35% of which consists of components from outside the EU.

The agreement to create the EDIP resulted from a balancing act between the ambitions of developing the European defense industry in the long term and the ability to purchase ready-made equipment to help Ukraine immediately. Another factor is the EU’s fear of angering incoming US President Trump, who has repeatedly expressed frustration with insufficient European defense spending and the fact that the bloc does not buy enough American defense products.

The EU is working to identify flagship projects with a common interest that could benefit from (EDIP) funds in areas such as air and missile defense.