Category: Politics

PoliticsWar The US will allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles, and France and Britain follow the US’ lead. Monday, November 18, 2024

After months of negotiations with Washington, the Biden administration, with two months left in office, has for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to use American ATACMS to strike Russian targets in the Kursk region in response to North Korea’s deployment of thousands of troops to aid Moscow’s war effort against Ukraine. The weapons are likely to be initially employed against Russian and North Korean troops to support Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, officials said.

However, a US official said that Biden’s approval of ATACMS “will have a very specific and limited effect” on the battlefield, designed to limit concerns about escalation. To help the Ukrainians defend Kharkiv, Biden has allowed them to use HIMARS, which have a range of about 50 miles (80 km), against Russian forces directly across the border. However, the US President will not allow the Ukrainians to use longer-range ATACMS, which have a range of about 190 miles (300 km), in Kharkiv’s defense.

Immediately after the US decision, French and British authorities gave their permission for Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory using their SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles.

PoliticsWar The coalition collapse in Germany could jeopardize the supply of drones to Ukraine, but Germany has already started providing the Mini-Taurus. Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Planned drone supplies from Germany to Ukraine may be in jeopardy following the collapse of the ruling coalition government, known as a traffic light coalition. At the same time, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, demands additional packages of German weapons for Ukraine.

However, despite everything, the German Helsing company is preparing to transfer 4,000 AI-equipped Mini-Taurus drones to Ukraine. Germany will supply several hundred drones to Ukraine every month starting in December of this year. Ukrainian soldiers are already testing several samples in combat conditions at the front.

The Mini-Taurus can analyze terrain and determine location even in difficult weather conditions or with destroyed infrastructure. The drone can continue operating even if the radio signal is lost, and its flight range is four times greater than typical Ukrainian kamikaze drones. In addition, German drones are much cheaper than American Switchblades.

PoliticsWar What can Trump demand from Putin in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine? Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Former Deputy Secretary General of NATO Rose Gottemoeller believes that newly elected US President Donald Trump has every opportunity to change the war’s dynamics. Putin presumably wants to return Russia to the world stage and ease sanctions on his country. Therefore, Trump can demand concessions, and if they are formulated sensibly, it will not be difficult for Putin to agree to them, Gottemoeller says.

Among the conditions that Trump can offer to Putin, she names a cease-fire agreement modeled on West Germany after World War II, delayed NATO membership for Ukraine (probably for 20 years), and a return to negotiations on nuclear arms control and strategic stability.

“Two big deals are peace in Ukraine, and a new nuclear deal would strengthen Trump’s reputation as the best deal-maker and even the best peacemaker,” Gottemoeller added.

Also, no one should come out of this war having suffered a crushing defeat, the expert concluded. However, allowing Ukraine to launch long-range strikes against Russia may complicate Trump’s attempts to achieve peace in Ukraine.

PoliticsWar North Korea might send 100,000 troops and transfer long-range weapons to Russia; China, despite its denials, is also arming Russia. Tuesday, November 19, 2024

North Korea may deploy up to 100,000 soldiers to help Russia in its war against Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, this military support is likely to occur in stages with troop rotation over time rather than a one-time deployment.

Meanwhile, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has received long-range missile and artillery systems from North Korea. Some of them were sent to the Kursk region. The systems that have been delivered include 50 170-mm M1989 Koksan self-propelled howitzers and 20 upgraded 240-mm rocket salvo systems that can fire at more than 60 km. North Korea wants to test its weapons in actual combat situations.

Moreover, it has been revealed that, for the first time, China handed over weapons to the Russian Federation for the war against Ukraine. China declares itself a neutral party and has repeatedly stated that it does not send lethal aid to either side. In response, the EU is considering introducing sanctions against the China.

PoliticsWar North Korea’s participation in the war against Ukraine convinced Biden to lift restrictions on long-range strikes. Tuesday, November 19, 2024

The initial targets may be Russian positions in the Kursk region, where about 10,000 Korean troops are currently stationed. ATACMS strikes are believed to be more effective than long-range Ukrainian drones. However, according to some Western officials, this development is unlikely to fundamentally change the war’s course because Russia can continue to move its weapons beyond missile range.

Analysts claim that for a significant effect, the permission to strike should apply not only to the Kursk region. The Western partners should allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to hit targets on Russian territory along the entire perimeter of the border.

Putin’s press secretary, Dmytro Peskov, called the authorization to strike deep into the Russian Federation with Western weapons “a new twist in tensions” and “a qualitatively new situation from the point of view of the involvement of the US in this conflict.”

After the US decision, China called for an early ceasefire in Ukraine, saying that a political solution to the conflict is in the interests of all parties.

Politics At the G20 summit, Erdogan plans to propose that the war in Ukraine be frozen. Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to present his proposal for freezing the war in Ukraine “at the current level” at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. According to Erdogan’s plan, Ukraine would delay joining NATO for at least 10 years, conceding to Putin. In addition, the Turkish proposal provides for the creation of a demilitarized zone in the Donbas. Erdogan also proposes deploying international troops in this buffer zone as an additional security guarantee for Ukraine and compensation for agreeing to remain outside of NATO.

Turkish officials admit that such a proposal would be difficult for Ukraine to accept, but they consider it “the most realistic approach” to postpone discussions on the return of territories and focus on ensuring a stable ceasefire.

Brazil refused to invite Ukraine to the summit but invited Russia, represented only by Foreign Minister Serhii Lavrov because Putin fears being arrested due to an ICC warrant for his arrest.

However, commenting on Erdoğan’s initiative, the Kremlin noted that “the option of freezing along the line of combat confrontation is unacceptable for the Russian side.”

PoliticsWar Ukraine used ATACMS for the first time in the Russian Federation; Trump says this is an escalation of the war. Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Defense forces struck a Russian ammunition warehouse in the Bryansk region with US-supplied ATACMS missiles, 110 km from the border with Ukraine. At least 12 secondary explosions and detonations took place after the warehouse was hit. Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Combating Disinformation, claims that North Korean ammunition was stored at this facility. There could also have been aerial bombs, anti-aircraft missiles, and ammunition for multiple rocket launchers. This is Ukraine’s first use of this weapon in Russian territory.

Congressman Mike Waltz, who Donald Trump chose as his national security adviser, said that the authorization to use ATACMS on Russian territory threatens to escalate the war further.

“No one knows what this will lead to. North Korea is transferring ballistic missiles, artillery, and now tens of thousands of soldiers. The administration is responding by lifting restrictions. North Korea is sending even more soldiers. South Korea is saying it may go to war,” he stressed.

FinancePolitics UN climate summit approves $300B in annual funding for developing countries. Monday, November 25, 2024

Countries in attendance at the COP-29 UN climate summit have agreed on a new collective climate financing deal. Wealthy countries have pledged to provide poorer countries with $300B annually by 2035 to help them cope with the increasingly catastrophic effects of the climate crisis – a figure that many developing countries have criticized as woefully inadequate. The deal was reached after more than two weeks of complex negotiations and disputes. However, there were fears that the talks would collapse, as groups representing vulnerable small island states and the least-developed countries walked out of the negotiations. However, an agreement was reached between nearly 200 countries. The funds will help vulnerable countries cope with increasingly destructive extreme weather conditions and transition their economies to clean energy. The pledged amount, however, falls short of the $1.3T that economists estimate is needed to help developing countries cope with the climate crisis, which has sparked a furious reaction from many of these countries.

PoliticsWar The Ukraine-NATO Council will convene following the Russian attack on Dnipro with a Oreshnik missile. Monday, November 25, 2024

The Ukraine-NATO Council will meet at the ambassadorial level on November 26 at the Alliance headquarters at Ukraine’s request. The meeting is in response to Russia’s first use in Ukraine of an experimental Oreshnik ballistic missile, based on the older Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile. It was first assumed that the Rubezh missile was used in the attack, but later Putin stated that the medium-range Oreshnik missile had been used for the first time. The White House gave its assurance that the Russian attack using this missile will not stop support for Ukraine from the current US administration. White House spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre stressed that US assistance is aimed at strengthening Ukrainian capabilities and taking “the best possible position on the battlefield.” NATO also stated that such actions by Russia will not change the course of the conflict and will not deter the Alliance allies from continuing to support Ukraine. The ISW noted that Russia’s use of the Oreshnik was to demonstrate force and is an attempt to strengthen its nuclear threats. Currently, Ukraine does not have air defense systems capable of shooting down this type of ballistic missile.

PoliticsWar Ukraine’s allies are discussing providing Ukraine with nuclear weapons to change the war’s dynamics. Monday, November 25, 2024

Russia’s launch of the Oreshnik ballistic missile and the difficult situation at the front have renewed the discussion about new ways of providing military assistance to Ukraine and its future security system on the eve of Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House. The NYT reports that American and European officials have offered to help return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were “seized after the collapse of the Soviet Union.” According to officials, the decision would be an immediate and powerful deterrent for Russia. Earlier, the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS) stated that Ukraine could quickly develop plutonium-based nuclear weapons. Ukraine does not have the ability to build and operate large-scale uranium enrichment facilities, but it could use plutonium obtained from spent fuel rods from nuclear power plants. The country has about seven tons of plutonium, which is enough to create hundreds of warheads with a tactical yield of several kilotons. Each would be enough to destroy an enemy air base, military, industrial, or logistical facilities.