A baseball group’s season doesn’t actually come down to 1 play, or two performs, however for those who’re a loyal fan of the Philadelphia Phillies, the ultimate play of the Nationwide League Division Collection towards the Los Angeles Dodgers will reside in your nightmares for a very long time.
Orion Kerkering’s throwing error, resulting in the Phillies’ elimination in Sport 4 of the NLDS, is one other addition to the listing of heartbreaking postseason defeats. It’s a protracted listing, after all, as a result of that’s what playoff baseball does. However there have been two different quick throws from Sport 2 that may have additionally impacted the end result of the collection: (1) Trea Turner’s throw that was vast proper to catcher J.T. Realmuto, permitting Teoscar Hernandez to beat the tag and slide in safely and resulting in a four-run rally for the Dodgers, and (2) Max Muncy firing an ideal throw to Mookie Betts on a bunt try within the ninth inning that nailed Nick Castellanos at third base because the Dodgers held on for a 4-3 victory.
It’s simple to consider the what-ifs — what if both throw went a number of inches the opposite means? Or if Kerkering threw to first base as a substitute of residence? However it’s not so simple as a number of throws, though these performs spotlight the small margin of error within the playoffs.
The Phillies’ season can also be over as a result of the large names didn’t hit. Throughout this four-year run of what you would possibly name the Bryce Harper/Kyle Schwarber period, they reached the World Collection — considerably surprisingly — in 2022 however haven’t made it again regardless of having a number of the prime front-line expertise within the sport. Actually, the Phillies are 3-10 of their previous 13 postseason video games and 2-8 of their previous 10.
In these 10 video games, they’ve hit .195 as a group. Harper hit .206 with one residence run and three RBIs. Schwarber hit .162 with three residence runs and 4 RBIs, two of these residence runs and three of the RBIs coming in Sport 3 of this collection. The others round them didn’t fare any higher in these 10 video games, with Turner, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh every hitting below .200.
Because the Phillies absorb a disappointing finish to 2025, you must marvel if this is likely to be the top of this period of Phillies baseball. Schwarber, Realmuto and Ranger Suarez are free brokers this offseason. Zack Wheeler will try a comeback following thoracic outlet syndrome surgical procedure — although his timeline is unsure. Aaron Nola is coming off a 6.01 ERA. And to prime all of it off, their 4 most precious place gamers this season had been all 32 or older.
The Phillies have had a remarkably steady roster of core gamers throughout this four-year run, and although they could look very completely different in 2026, one factor is for sure: Harper shouldn’t be going anyplace. Signed via 2031, he has related with the followers of Philadelphia like few athletes do of their adopted cities. He additionally is aware of their ache.
“I do know followers are upset. I do know the town’s upset. Clearly, it’s warranted. We’re upset in right here as effectively,” Harper mentioned after Sport 4. “Our every day life is Phillies baseball. That is our household in right here. That is what we do. We need to win not only for ourselves, however for everyone that watches us play. … I need to maintain the trophy and that’s the objective each single time you get into spring coaching.”
Whereas most individuals in baseball don’t imagine the Phillies will let Schwarber go, not coming off his 56-homer marketing campaign, the fact of the scenario is evident: That is an getting older roster with a excessive payroll. They’ve a dedicated proprietor in John Middleton, who has run top-five payrolls, and a future Corridor of Fame govt in Dave Dombrowski, who is aware of easy methods to construct groups loaded with star gamers, however throwing extra money at older gamers feels dangerous, even for a group coming off a 96-win season and attempting to win the World Collection.
The group is at a crucial juncture, one which eerily resembles one other Phillies period: the 2007-2011 groups that gained 5 consecutive NL East titles and the World Collection in 2008. If something, that group was much more proficient than this one — and the most effective of these groups was the 2011 squad that gained 102 video games, solely to lose within the NLDS. However look what occurred to these Phillies because the entrance workplace tried to maintain successful with the identical group:
The similarities between the Phillies of the previous 4 years and people 2007-2011 groups are greater than slightly eerie:
1. That 2011 NLDS ended with a 1-0 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals and on an atypical remaining play, when Ryan Howard grounded out and blew out his Achilles.
2. The ace of the 2011 workers was Roy Halladay, who gained 19 video games and posted 8.8 WAR. He was by no means the identical once more, struggling a shoulder harm the subsequent season and successful simply 15 extra video games within the majors. Wheeler, who had posted 5.0 WAR earlier than this season ended when a blood clot was found close to his proper shoulder in August, must overcome a serious harm at age 35 — the identical age as Halladay in 2012.
3. The common weighted age (primarily based on taking part in time) of the 2011 Phillies place gamers was 31.5, the oldest within the NL. The common age of the 2025 Phillies place gamers was 30.3, second oldest within the NL.
4. The 2011 Phillies had locked themselves into some hefty long-term contracts for older gamers. Howard had signed a five-year, $125 million extension in 2010 that didn’t start till the 2012 season and was value minus-5.0 WAR over these 5 seasons. Cliff Lee had signed a $120 million extension operating via 2015, however he received harm and gained simply 4 video games in 2014, not even pitching in 2015. They banked on Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins to stay stars as they entered their age-33 seasons in 2012, however that didn’t occur.
The 2025 Phillies have comparable points with Wheeler making $42 million the subsequent two seasons, Nola signed during 2030, and are banking on Harper and Turner remaining productive as they enter their age-33 seasons in 2026.
It’s additionally exhausting to think about the Phillies all of a sudden rebuilding. That’s not within the nature of Middleton or Dombrowski. Even with the uncertainty with Wheeler, they’ve one other ace in Cristopher Sanchez, plus Jesus Luzardo for yet another season. We would lastly see prime prospect Andrew Painter enter the rotation in 2026. Taijuan Walker remains to be round for one more yr, so even when they don’t re-sign Sanchez, the rotation might be strong, though quite a lot of that depends upon Nola bouncing again. Nearer Jhoan Duran is below group management for 2 extra seasons, so Philadelphia no less than lastly has some stability within the ninth inning. The opposite key relievers can be again, together with Jose Alvarado, if his $9 million membership possibility is exercised (not a certain factor given his PED suspension made him ineligible for the postseason).
On the place participant aspect, Castellanos ($20 million) and Walker ($18 million) come off the books after 2026, in order that’s cash that may go to re-signing Schwarber. Additionally they have a pair of extremely touted prospects in shortstop/third baseman Aidan Miller and outfielder Justin Crawford, who ought to each be prepared in some unspecified time in the future in 2026, in order that’s a chance to weave in some youthful gamers.
There’s additionally the query of who can be managing this group for the long term. Whereas Rob Thomson is below contract via the 2026 season, there are all the time rumblings that it is likely to be time for a change after a string of painful playoff exits.
Regardless of that potential uncertainty, Thomson has little question about what the Phillies may have deliberate for 2026: “John [Middleton] goes to spend cash. He needs to win. He needs a world champion. There’s good years forward, little question.”
That will very effectively be the case. It’s simple to ascertain the Phillies proper again on this place subsequent October, hoping Harper and Schwarber get scorching on the proper time, hoping the proper throws are made this time, hoping the whims of postseason baseball go their means. Historical past, nevertheless, additionally means that’s hardly a certain factor.