Coming into NBA coaching camp, optimism abounds. Staffers and gamers are excited. Seemingly everybody has had the most effective summer time of their lives. It takes much more than a preseason loss to dampen anybody’s spirits.
No, dampening spirits is what occurs when a group will get punked within the common season.
Or maybe when BPI — ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index — says a group won’t win fairly as a lot as all of the optimism suggests.
This 12 months, BPI’s win-total predictions aren’t radically totally different from what Las Vegas initiatives, so we’re going to clue you in on what Vegas doesn’t actually let you know — issues resembling the possibilities your group will will get a top-six seed within the playoffs, its probability of constructing the Finals, and perhaps even the explanation.
From the No. 1 group, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, down to some squads ranked within the 20s, right here’s what BPI forecasts. The entire set of numbers is right here and up to date each day through the season.
No. 1 Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder (No. 1 total)
OKC has a 98% probability of incomes a top-four seed. For perspective, that’s like having an eight-point lead with two minutes left in a recreation.
I’m unsure whether or not folks understand how deep OKC is. Final season, the online factors metric we use to guage gamers was optimistic for everybody within the Thunder’s rotation and a few guys outdoors of their rotation — 12 group members in whole. In distinction, the Thunder’s Finals’ opponents, the Pacers, had simply 5 gamers optimistic within the common season.
No. 2 Denver Nuggets (No. 3)
The Nuggets have a 67% probability of incomes a top-four seed, which brings home-court benefit within the first spherical of the playoffs.
The hole between the Nuggets’ starters and their bench was the most important within the NBA final season. The starters added 7.6 factors to their scoring margin per recreation, and the bench took away 3.8. That sample has been true for years. However this previous summer time, the online factors metric suggests the group improved — from Michael Porter Jr. to Cam Johnson, from Russell Westbrook to Tim Hardaway Jr., and from DeAndre Jordan to Jonas Valanciunas.
No. 3 Houston Rockets (No. 4)
Houston has a 49% probability to take a top-three seed.
This accounts for Fred VanVleet’s season-ending damage, however BPI sees fairly good depth to compensate. The web factors metric had these Rockets as the underside 4 gamers on the roster final season: Cam Whitmore, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Inexperienced and Reed Sheppard. Of these, solely the second-year level guard Sheppard returns.
Oh, they usually acquired Kevin Durant.
No. 4 LA Clippers (No. 6)
The Clippers have a 21% probability of progressing to the Western Convention finals, decrease than they’d like with all their veterans.
The Clippers are the oldest group within the NBA heading into the season, with eight of their rotation gamers over 30: Nic Batum, Bradley Beal, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez and Chris Paul.
However with these guys plus three regulars underneath 30 — Ivica Zubac, John Collins and Derrick Jones Jr. — that’s quite a lot of high quality gamers to step in if or when Leonard is out.
No. 5 Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 9)
The Wolves are in the identical division as OKC and Denver, so their probability to win all of it is small (3%), however their shot at getting a top-six seed is 63%.
Anthony Edwards’ mixture of scoring from 3-point vary and from the foul line was value plus-5.2 web factors per 48 minutes final 12 months, second solely to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who wasn’t as balanced.
Edwards added solely plus-1.9 web factors from these two areas as a rookie, however he has gotten higher each season. Taking pictures nearly 40% from 3 final season helped him enhance a lot year-over-year. Is that sustainable? Most likely not.
No. 6 Golden State Warriors (No. 11)
The Warriors have solely a 25% probability at a top-four seed, however a 51% shot to land within the high six.
One of many issues that distinguished the glory days of Steph Curry, Draymond Inexperienced and Klay Thompson was that all of them performed higher after they had been collectively on the court docket. That hasn’t occurred with Jimmy Butler … but.
A few of that has to do with getting acquainted with one another, an actual impact that ought to present itself this season. BPI doesn’t issue that in proper now (machines nonetheless have lots to study), so it’s nonetheless a bit skeptical primarily based on what the Warriors did final season.
No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies (No. 14)
BPI is a bit more optimistic on Memphis’ playoff probabilities than Vegas, pegging the Grizzlies at 51%, in contrast with 43%.
Memphis received 48 video games final 12 months with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells, Santi Aldama and Desmond Bane. Bane is gone, however they picked up extra depth with Ty Jerome, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a superb group man.
Morant and Jackson all the time undertaking to overlook video games, which BPI acknowledges, however Morant will be dominant when he’s taking part in. The Grizzlies received 48 final 12 months with each of them lacking video games, so BPI sees the same season in 2025-26.
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers (No. 15)
The Lakers have a 70% probability to keep away from a play-in and make the playoffs straight up, thus saving LeBron James’ legs for per week. That 70% is sort of a four- or five-point lead coming into the fourth quarter.
The Lakers’ stars are nonetheless constructing chemistry. Luka Doncic averaged plus-3.1 offensive web factors per 48 minutes with James within the recreation, however plus-8.3 with him out, a quantity proper up there with Nikola Jokic or SGA.
At present, James is slated to be sidelined till mid-November. He’s nonetheless a star (although his impression might be 5-6 factors worse than it was at peak LeBron), so lacking time hurts, but it surely’s just a few video games so it doesn’t kill the group’s projection.
One massive purpose is that Doncic is so good on his personal — taking part in at that plus-8.3 degree and even plus-5 over longer intervals of time.
No. 9 Dallas Mavericks (No. 17)
BPI provides the Mavs a 7% probability of reaching the West finals — and a 51% shot at making the playoffs.
BPI doesn’t like rookies. Most coaches don’t like most rookies. Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis had been No. 1 picks, however as rookies their groups received about one-third of their video games. This 12 months’s No. 1 decide is Cooper Flagg, although, and he doesn’t undertaking to be a traditional No. 1 decide, however to be good immediately.
What if he performs at plus-2 web factors per 48 minutes, which is actually the underside of All-Star degree?
If Flagg is that good, which only a few rookies are (Jokic and Chris Paul come to thoughts), Dallas strikes as much as fourth within the West in projected BPI, with a greater probability at these convention finals.
No. 10 San Antonio Spurs (No. 18)
Per BPI, the Spurs have round a 50-50 probability on the playoffs.
It’s outstanding that Victor Wembanyama has a authentic probability to go three years into his profession with out even making the playoffs.
He seems to be like a celebrity with essentially the most intimidating presence on protection we’ve seen in many years. However he has averaged 58 video games in two seasons, and large males are inclined to have a tough time staying wholesome.
His offensive versatility seems to be good too, however he turns the ball over quite a bit. He has 19 turnovers in 79 minutes of preseason motion and had the bottom assist-to-turnover charge among the many 40 gamers with the very best turnover charges final 12 months.
It took Steph Curry till his fourth season to make the playoffs, so it received’t be a horrible signal if Wemby additionally takes that lengthy.
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 2 total)
Regardless of lacking the convention finals the previous two years, BPI provides Cleveland a 51% probability of constructing it this 12 months.
Donovan Mitchell was extremely necessary to the Cavaliers final 12 months. Of their wins, he averaged plus-6.1 web factors per 48 minutes. Of their losses, he was destructive at minus-2.4 web factors per 48 minutes. That distinction was one of many high 10 largest final 12 months. Not that stopping Mitchell is straightforward, but it surely suggests a reasonably simple key for opponents to restrict the Cavs.
The Cavs additionally acquired essentially the most good thing about accidents of any group final 12 months, between their very own accidents and opponent accidents, gaining 5.7 wins relative to common.
No. 2 New York Knicks (No. 5)
The Knicks have a 95% probability of getting a top-six seed at playoff time. They’ve a 49% probability of being within the high two within the East.
Jalen Brunson was certainly Clutch Participant of the 12 months final 12 months, including plus-13 offensive web factors per 100 possessions of clutch time, which, in fact, ignores his protection. To a big diploma, BPI sees a lot of the identical as final 12 months, which is sensible given the returns of the Knicks’ high six to seven gamers.
However that additionally assumes the teaching change doesn’t harm them.
No. 3 Orlando Magic (No. 7)
The Magic have a 56% probability of a top-four seed within the weak Jap Convention. That’s like beginning the fourth quarter with a two-point lead, so the damage bug had higher not hit them prefer it did final 12 months.
For the Magic to take a leap, they want Paolo Banchero to play like he did after the commerce deadline final 12 months when he was a top-20 participant, posting plus-3.2 web factors per 48 minutes.
Within the month earlier than the commerce deadline, he was fairly poor, at minus-3.3 web factors per 48 minutes.
No. 4 Atlanta Hawks (No. 8)
The Hawks have a 24% probability at a top-two seed within the East. That’s like pulling out a win when coming into the fourth quarter down 5 or 6 factors, so under no circumstances not possible. They’ve an 85% probability at touchdown within the high six.
Atlanta was 18th in protection final 12 months. The group hasn’t sniffed the highest half of the defensive rankings since earlier than COVID. That occurs to correspond to how lengthy Trae Younger has been in Atlanta.
However with 50 or 60 video games of Kristaps Porzingis and a full season of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, BPI initiatives the Hawks to be a top-10 protection (simply barely).
No. 5 Philadelphia 76ers (No. 10)
BPI initiatives Joel Embiid will play 64 video games, which is a part of what provides the 76ers a 90% probability to make the playoffs, one thing they’ve carried out each season wherein Embiid has performed 50 video games.
Embiid has all the time been a high-risk, high-reward participant. When he has performed, he has been nice.
However final 12 months was totally different. Even when he performed, he wasn’t nice, posting a career-low capturing proportion amongst different statistical duds. He was nonetheless an above-average participant, however not the dominant power he has been. Normally, that type of change is a blip, not a development.
The 76ers’ fast future would possibly rely upon that.
No. 6 Detroit Pistons (No. 12)
The Pistons went from 14 wins to 44 in a single season. That type of bump can imply a regression the next 12 months, however BPI sees them replicating final 12 months, with a projected win whole of 44 and a couple of 30% probability of advancing to the second spherical of the playoffs.
Cade Cunningham jumped into All-Star vary final season, partially by creating very high-quality pictures for teammates (fifth within the league, per GeniusIQ).
He was on the lookout for and discovering guys like Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart and Ausar Thompson, all of whom acquired higher from 2024 to 2025.
That’s a younger core to go along with regular veteran Tobias Harris.
No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks (No. 13)
BPI can’t predict whether or not Milwaukee trades Giannis Antetokounmpo away, however that does in all probability rely upon how shut the group involves the Finals. And BPI solely provides the Bucks a 13% probability on the Jap Convention finals.
Listed below are three causes BPI is mostly skeptical of Milwaukee’s probabilities:
1. Milwaukee misplaced Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez, two persistently good gamers.
2. Newly acquired Myles Turner performed terribly the primary two months of final season earlier than taking part in effectively, and he has a sample of taking part in half-seasons effectively.
3. Kevin Porter Jr. performed the most effective 30 video games of his profession for the Bucks on the finish of the season. A repeat is unlikely.
No. 8 Boston Celtics (No. 16)
Supposedly, the Celtics aren’t taking a niche 12 months, and BPI does give them a 50% probability to make the playoffs. However they may simply resolve halfway into the season to take a niche semester.
Jayson Tatum’s absence means extra pictures for the Celtics who stay. Jaylen Brown will get some, however he’ll lose effectivity in doing so, in all probability simply sufficient that his total productiveness will drop some.
Payton Pritchard will get some pictures, too, however, per GeniusIQ, he has outshot his personalised shot high quality by over 3% the previous three years, behind solely two different gamers with a thousand pictures in that point interval.
Derrick White in all probability can’t take extra pictures and retain his nice effectivity, both. BPI initiatives a median offense this 12 months. We’ll see.
No. 9 Indiana Pacers (No. 19)
With Tyrese Haliburton out for the season, BPI provides the Pacers a 36% probability to make the playoffs.
It’s ironic now, however the Pacers had the second largest damage benefit final 12 months within the common season, gaining plus-5.6 wins on account of their very own accidents relative to opponents’. Some regression from that was certain to occur, they usually clearly received’t replicate that with Haliburton out for the 12 months.
The Pacers play quick, typically, which helps Pascal Siakam, and it ought to assist Bennedict Mathurin. Siakam initiatives effectively with BPI, Mathurin not as a lot.
I’ve been a Mathurin advocate for some time, so I wish to imagine within the typically excessive degree of play he has proven within the preseason. If he continues that, and the remaining Pacers keep wholesome, their postseason likelihood is clearly larger.
No. 10 Toronto Raptors (No. 20)
The Raptors sit on the eighth or ninth greatest group within the East, per BPI, and with the very best probability of touchdown in a play-in, at 57%.
In some unspecified time in the future after the commerce deadline final 12 months, there was a statistic floating round that mentioned the Raptors had the best stretch of 20 video games in NBA historical past, primarily based on the information of the groups they had been to face. BPI can’t do all of NBA historical past, but it surely does verify that they’d the weakest schedule after the commerce deadline by a fairly good margin.
So the truth that Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes and Ja’Kobe Walter had been all fairly good in that time-frame must be put in context.
For this season, Walter drops to “common” as a substitute of fine, particularly in gentle of how poor he was earlier than then, however the others guys stay within the good vary.
For what it’s value, although, BPI doesn’t suppose any of them are significantly particular (or Brandon Ingram, whom the Raptors acquired final 12 months).
West No. 11 Portland Path Blazers (No. 23)
BPI provides the Blazers a 15% probability to make the play-in. Not not possible, but it surely’s like them being down 4 with two minutes left.
Via video games in November, Deni Avdija posted minus-1.1 web factors per 48 minutes, primarily pushed by his first quarters, which ranked among the many worst within the league.
Over the rest of the 12 months, although, Avdija acquired higher and higher. After the commerce deadline, Avdija was placing up plus-3.7 web factors per 48 minutes, a quantity that had him within the high 20 to 30 gamers in that stretch.
East No. 12 Chicago Bulls (No. 24)
BPI doesn’t just like the Bulls’ probabilities on the playoffs, about 6%, beneath the 16% that Vegas sees. Possibly it’s as a result of …
Josh Giddey was a wildly totally different participant earlier than the commerce deadline final 12 months and after. So what if Giddey performed at a greater degree all through the approaching 12 months, say plus-2 web factors per 48 minutes?
When BPI does these calculations, it could push the Bulls previous the Warmth and make them a authentic play-in chance, however not a top-six seed.
East No. 13 Charlotte Hornets (No. 27)
BPI actually doesn’t suppose a lot of Charlotte, sadly, with a 1.4% probability on the playoffs.
That is one group that BPI ranks poorly, however I’m intrigued by the expertise. LaMelo Ball has been good (not nice) when wholesome. Miles Bridges has athleticism and sometimes actually good video games. Brandon Miller has proven actual enchancment in two years. And Kon Knueppel had an amazing freshman 12 months on the school court docket.
However Charlotte’s bench, to be beneficiant, has limitations. If that core stays wholesome, it ought to be capable of rating higher than the Twenty eighth-ranked offense that BPI initiatives.
If Knueppel performs effectively, posting, say, plus-1 web factors per 48 minutes, BPI sees a 1.5-points enchancment as a group, which might put it on the perimeter of the play-in.