On Sunday, the 13 members of the School Soccer Playoff choice committee will do one thing they’ve by no means completed earlier than — they’re going to satisfy for 2 days on the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas, for what they’re calling a “stage set” assembly. It’s an early alternative for your complete group to get collectively and focus on what they’ve seen thus far with out releasing a rating.
And so they noticed lots in Week 8.
Undefeated Miami went down in a shocking loss at residence to Louisville. Undefeated Ole Miss went down. Undefeated Texas Tech went down. Undefeated Memphis went down. And Alabama made a case to maneuver up.
There was quite a lot of motion in Week 8, and the committee members will do their very own mock rating to assist the brand new members higher perceive the method. They’ll use the outcomes to-date, however the first of six actual rankings received’t be revealed till Nov. 4. The jockeying for prime seeds, first-round byes and first-round residence video games continues, however Week 8’s prime 12 projection is a snapshot of who’s bought the early edge if the rating have been launched as we speak.
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Ohio State (7-0) Why they could possibly be right here: The Buckeyes’ grip on the highest spot bought tighter after Miami’s residence loss to Louisville on Friday night time, however the Hoosiers are on their heels. Ohio State beat Wisconsin on the street with ease, incomes its third Massive Ten street win. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked within the prime 5 in each offensive and defensive efficiencies — and No. 2 total in complete effectivity — based on ESPN Analytics. They have been additionally No. 2 in Sport Management and No. 3 in Power of Document — all metrics that point out the entire bundle the committee is in search of with eye take a look at and résumé.
Why they could possibly be decrease: There can be some committee members who contemplate Indiana for the highest spot, because the undefeated Hoosiers’ street win at Oregon stays the perfect within the nation. IU is on par with Ohio State statistically, rating No. 1 in ESPN’s Power of Document metric, and No. 3 in Sport Management. Ohio State’s nonconference win in opposition to Texas, although, would loom giant within the room as a separating issue.
Must know: Ohio State and Indiana are on observe to face one another within the Massive Ten title sport. If that involves fruition and they’re each undefeated, the loser of the sport can nonetheless earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye as a result of these spots are now not reserved for convention champions. ESPN Analytics provides Ohio State no less than a 50% likelihood to win every of its remaining video games and the perfect likelihood within the league to succeed in the Massive Ten championship.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes try to keep away from a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could possibly be right here: Indiana moved up one spot after beating Michigan State and because of Miami dropping to Louisville, however the Hoosiers are right here as a result of they received at Oregon on Oct. 11. The double-digit win snapped the Geese’ 18-game residence successful streak and legitimized IU’s playoff hopes. Greater than that, it put the Hoosiers in competition for a top-four seed and first-round bye. They continued to construct upon that on Saturday in opposition to the Spartans, incomes their fourth straight Massive Ten win, together with two on the street. One of many largest variations between IU and Ohio State within the eyes of the committee can be the Buckeyes’ nonconference win in opposition to Texas, which trumps IU’s wins in opposition to Previous Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.
Why they could possibly be larger: Indiana’s win in opposition to Oregon remains to be higher than Ohio State’s greatest win, and the Hoosiers entered Week 8 ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Power of Document metric. Meaning the typical prime 25 opponent would have simply an 11% likelihood to realize the identical 7-0 document in opposition to the identical opponents. The committee additionally considers frequent opponents, and whereas Ohio State beat Illinois with ease, 34-16, Indiana beat the Illini in historic style, 63-10.
Must know: Indiana has the second-best likelihood to succeed in the Massive Ten title sport behind Ohio State, based on ESPN Analytics. The Hoosiers have no less than a 70% likelihood to win every of their remaining video games.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 8 at Penn State. It’s definitely not the impediment it gave the impression to be a month in the past, but it surely’s nonetheless essentially the most tough street journey remaining and a harder atmosphere to win in than Maryland.
Why they could possibly be right here: With the win in opposition to Tennessee, Alabama has now crushed 4 straight ranked opponents, together with Georgia and Missouri on the street. This has been one of the crucial grueling stretches any staff within the nation has performed, and Alabama hasn’t simply received — it’s gotten higher every week. For the reason that inception of the CFP, the committee has by no means shied away from rating a one-loss staff forward of an undefeated staff if it has performed higher in opposition to higher competitors, and the Tide has completed that.
Why they could possibly be decrease: The loss to Florida State did occur, and the Noles have since spiraled into irrelevance in each the nationwide image and the ACC race. Texas A&M has a greater nonconference win at Notre Dame, whereas Alabama beat a beleaguered 2-5 Wisconsin staff at residence on Sept. 13.
Must know: Alabama entered Week 8 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s Power of Schedule metric, nicely above No. 21-ranked Texas A&M.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. Alabama received’t face a quarterback higher than John Mateer within the second half of the season. Rival Auburn continues to battle, and LSU nonetheless appears incapable of placing collectively an entire efficiency.
Why they could possibly be right here: Texas A&M remains to be undefeated — the one one left within the SEC — but it surely hasn’t racked up the assertion wins like Alabama. And Saturday’s 45-42 win in opposition to a now 2-5 Arkansas staff didn’t come simply. The Aggies allowed 527 complete yards, together with 268 on the bottom. Nonetheless, the Aggies earned their second street win of the season, a double-digit victory in opposition to a pesky Arkansas staff enjoying impressed below interim coach Bobby Petrino. Texas A&M entered Week 8 No. 2 in ESPN’s Power of Document metric, and the 41-40 win at Notre Dame is an enormous motive why. It’s the Aggies’ lone win in opposition to a ranked opponent.
Why they could possibly be larger: If the committee retains the Aggies forward of Bama, it will be due to the Tide’s season-opening loss to FSU and Texas A&M’s win at Notre Dame.
Must know: Texas A&M and Alabama don’t play one another through the common season, however can meet within the SEC title sport — if the Aggies can survive a harder again half of the season. Texas A&M nonetheless has three robust street video games in opposition to LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 28 at Texas. A Friday night time street journey in opposition to a ranked rival is a tough method to finish the season.
Why they could possibly be right here: The Bulldogs have two wins over what needs to be CFP High 25 opponents in Tennessee and Ole Miss, and a few committee members would contemplate the three-point loss to Alabama on Sept. 27 a greater loss than Miami’s residence loss to Louisville after a bye. The pinnacle-to-head consequence will hold Georgia behind the Tide, although, so long as their information stay the identical. Saturday’s win in opposition to beforehand undefeated Ole Miss is the Bulldogs’ greatest win of the season and one of many higher wins within the nation.
Why they could possibly be decrease: Miami’s loss to Louisville wasn’t a nasty loss, but it surely was a poor efficiency. There may nonetheless be some committee members who assume Miami’s total résumé is healthier than Georgia’s with nonconference wins in opposition to Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida. Georgia’s nonconference wins are Marshall and Austin Peay. And previous to the Louisville sport, Miami was enjoying higher protection extra constantly than the Bulldogs.
Must know: With Georgia Tech’s win at Duke on Saturday, Georgia’s in-state rival is on observe to succeed in the ACC championship sport. If Georgia can win the regular-season finale between the 2 faculties, it may wind up being one in all its greatest wins within the again half of the season.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns will possible be the final ranked SEC opponents the Bulldogs face.
Why they could possibly be right here: The loss to Louisville might be much less of an issue within the committee assembly room than how Miami misplaced. The 4 turnovers from Carson Beck — plus changing simply 5 of 12 third downs — are the sorts of stats former coaches and gamers within the room will carry up. There will even be a respect, although, for one-loss Louisville, which might in all probability be a CFP High 25 staff. Miami’s total schedule will nonetheless carry quite a lot of weight with the committee, as wins in opposition to Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida are a considerably harder nonconference lineup than most different contenders.
Why they could possibly be decrease: Ole Miss had a greater loss in Week 8 on the street to Georgia than the Canes’ residence loss to Louisville.
Must know: The Canes’ possibilities of incomes a first-round bye as a prime 4 seed took successful with their loss to Louisville. Within the straight seeding format, the choice committee’s prime 4 groups will earn the highest 4 seeds — they’re now not reserved for convention champions. Miami may end as a one-loss ACC champ, however nonetheless end outdoors of the highest 4. The choice committee compares frequent opponents, and can contemplate that Miami beat Florida State and Alabama didn’t, however the Tide may win the general debate with a stronger résumé. The committee additionally considers how groups misplaced, and the Canes made too many errors on either side of the ball in opposition to Louisville, however the Cardinals are a gifted staff that could possibly be within the CFP High 25 on Choice Day.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 1 at SMU. This would be the first time Miami has left its personal state. The Mustangs beat Clemson, 35-24, on Saturday, however the Tigers have been with out beginning quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Why they could possibly be right here: An in depth street loss to a CFP contender isn’t going to knock the Rebels out of the sector, however their total résumé may use a lift after LSU’s loss to Vanderbilt. It helped a bit that Tulane discovered a method to escape Military on Saturday — although the Inexperienced Wave wanted two landing passes within the remaining two minutes to do it. Tulane stays in competition for a playoff bid as one of many 5 highest-ranked convention champions, and Ole Miss beat the Inexperienced Wave soundly, 45-10 on Sept. 20. The choice committee pays shut consideration to how these video games are received and misplaced, and may have seen Ole Miss battle with Washington State and its incapability to make some vital defensive stops in opposition to Georgia.
Why they could possibly be decrease: Statistically, Oregon has been the extra full staff, coming into Week 8 No. 5 in complete effectivity whereas Ole Miss was No. 30. The Geese have been No. 4 within the nation in factors margin, and No. 13 in scoring protection. Ole Miss has additionally been one of many nation’s most penalized groups, rating No. 118 with 7.83 per sport and No. 126 with 74 penalty yards per sport, whereas Oregon is within the prime 10 in each classes for fewest penalties and yards. In response to ESPN Analytics, Ole Miss additionally ranked No. 63 in schedule power whereas Oregon was No. 25.
Must know: The Rebels are below some stress to beat Oklahoma in Week 9 as a result of a 10-2 document may not be adequate for an at-large bid. Ole Miss would have misplaced two of its prime three probabilities to impress the committee in opposition to ranked opponents — the one they bought was in opposition to LSU.
Hardest remaining sport: Oct. 25 at Oklahoma. The Sooners rebounded from their loss to Texas with a win on Saturday at South Carolina. It will likely be the second straight street journey for Ole Miss.
Why they could possibly be right here: The Geese returned to their dominating kind, albeit in opposition to a now 3-4 Rutgers staff. Oregon has flourished in opposition to lesser competitors all season, leaving little doubt it’s the higher staff and padding its stats alongside the best way in opposition to groups like 1-6 Oklahoma State and FCS Montana State. They wanted double extra time to win at Penn State, although, and misplaced at residence by double digits to Indiana. Quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six instances in opposition to the Hoosiers. Their greatest wins thus far have come on the street in opposition to Northwestern and Penn State, however choice committee members additionally contemplate the extraordinary quantity of journey concerned, together with the practically 3,000 miles in Week 8 to Piscataway, N.J.
Why they could possibly be larger: Oregon has merely performed higher extra constantly than Ole Miss, and the Geese entered Week 8 ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Sport Management metric.
Must know: If Oregon runs the desk and finishes as a one-loss staff with out a convention title, this No. 8 spot would nonetheless give the Geese a first-round residence sport as the upper seed, pitted in opposition to No. 9 Oklahoma on this case.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 22 vs. USC. Street journeys to Iowa and Washington aren’t gimmes — and Minnesota needs to be bowl sure — however the Trojans will possible be the final ranked opponent the Geese face.
Why they could possibly be right here: The Sooners earned their first true street win of the season on Saturday at South Carolina. The win in opposition to Michigan continues to be a worthwhile nonconference consequence, however the committee would in all probability be extra impressed with Miami’s total résumé. The Sooners’ slender residence win in opposition to Auburn has taken successful over the previous few weeks. Oklahoma’s win in opposition to South Carolina was additional proof that quarterback John Mateer stays one of the crucial gifted gamers within the nation, as he added a 40-yard punt to his résumé in his second sport again from hand surgical procedure.
Why they could possibly be decrease: Georgia Tech is undefeated and that might be the most important motive the committee would flip the 2. Oklahoma’s protection has been considerably higher in opposition to a harder schedule.
Must know: The Sooners finish the season with 5 straight ranked opponents, together with back-to-back November journeys to Tennessee and Alabama.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners may have a much-needed bye week earlier than touring to Alabama.
Why they could possibly be right here: With LSU’s loss and Georgia Tech’s win at Duke, the door opened for the Yellow Jackets to enter the sector. Georgia Tech has two street wins in opposition to ACC groups over .500 (at Wake Forest and now at Duke). Its out-of-conference schedule contains wins over energy conferences foes Colorado and Virginia Tech, however that pair is simply 5-9 mixed. Not one of the Yellow Jackets’ opponents are at the moment ranked, and coming into this week, Georgia Tech’s schedule power was No. 94 within the nation. Nonetheless, the choice committee would see on its sport movie cut-ups that Haynes King threw for 205 yards in opposition to Duke and ran for a game-high 120 yards. It’s a gifted staff that continues to search out methods to win, together with with a school-record 95-yard scoop n’ rating on Saturday.
Why they could possibly be decrease: The Jackets have discovered methods to win, however they haven’t precisely asserted themselves in opposition to unranked opponents. Their solely double-digit win got here in opposition to the 2-5 Hokies. Georgia Tech wanted extra time to beat Wake Forest, 30-29, and the committee would know that the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that sport that might have given the Demon Deacons a vital first down. The missed name allowed Georgia Tech to increase its drive and win in extra time.
Must know: Georgia Tech may not have any wins in opposition to CFP High 25 groups on Choice Day, but it surely wouldn’t matter if the Jackets locked up a spot because the ACC champion. It could be part of the committee’s deliberations, although, if Georgia Tech completed as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with these losses coming to the ACC winner and rival Georgia.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes final yr earlier than dropping, 44-42, in Athens.
Why they could possibly be right here: The Cougars beat their hardest opponent to-date, a ranked Utah staff that now has two losses. BYU is the one undefeated staff remaining within the Massive 12, and continues to search out methods to win. They’ve additionally bought three street wins (East Carolina, Colorado and Arizona), and benefited from Texas Tech dropping to ASU.
Why they could possibly be decrease: Wins in opposition to FCS Portland State, 2-4 Stanford, 3-4 Colorado and 2-5 West Virginia don’t stack up with the opposite contenders. BYU additionally wanted double extra time to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.
Must know: BYU would lock up a spot because the Massive 12 champion, but when the Cougars can handle to remain undefeated till the convention title sport, they might hold their hopes alive for incomes an at-large bid because the Massive 12 runner-up. The committee would contemplate how the title sport unfolded, and if BYU misplaced a detailed sport or in convincing style. It helps BYU that Cincinnati is having an excellent season and could possibly be a CFP High 25 staff, however that’s a double edged sword as a result of the Bearcats are additionally of their means.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. Though the Pink Raiders misplaced on Saturday, they’re nonetheless essentially the most gifted staff left on the Cougars’ schedule.
Why they could possibly be right here: The Irish have received 5 straight since their 0-2 begin, but it surely’s the best way they’ve performed throughout that stretch that might impress the committee sufficient to contemplate them for a top-12 spot. Notre Dame put all of it collectively in opposition to USC, its first win in opposition to a ranked opponent this season. The Irish received the old-school means, with a robust working sport and a protection that has proven measurable enchancment in every of the previous 4 video games. Particular groups was additionally an element in opposition to the Trojans.
Why they could possibly be decrease: Two losses. Interval. And it doesn’t assist that the primary was to Miami, which misplaced to Louisville.
Must know: If the playoff have been as we speak, Notre Dame can be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked convention champion, which is assured a spot within the 12-team discipline. Proper now that staff — South Florida because the projected American champion — can be ranked outdoors the highest 12. As an unbiased, Notre Dame can’t lock up a spot within the playoff as one of many 5 convention champions, so its solely path is thru an at-large bid.
Hardest remaining sport: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win every of its remaining video games, however this one is on the street in opposition to a staff that discovered a method to win at Florida State.
Primarily based on the rankings above, the seeding can be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Massive Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round video games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 BYU (Massive 12 champ) at No. 6 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal video games
On the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Introduced by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Miami winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Georgia Tech/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State