How a lot a coach wins or loses is of paramount significance when evaluating their efficiency, however so is how they did relative to expectations. Win greater than oddsmakers projected you’d? You ought to be in line for Coach of the Yr consideration. Win much less? Analysis suggests your seat is warming up.
(By the way, because of this we frequently see Coach of the Yr winners seemingly carry a “curse” in subsequent seasons: One 12 months’s shocking overperformance units the bar of future expectations greater, portending backlash — and generally dismissal — after they go unmet.)
The identical applies to new hires. Whereas the roles they take had been typically open for a cause, the query isn’t whether or not they would instantly contend for a championship — it’s whether or not they might get extra out of their rosters than oddsmakers and pundits assumed within the preseason.
That’s why we leveraged Elo forecasts to rank the seven first-year WNBA coaches by whether or not they’re on tempo to steer their groups to extra (or fewer) wins than ESPN BET had projected with preseason over/unders. As a bonus, we additionally highlighted gamers who’ve performed key roles and are on monitor to provide extra Estimated RAPTOR wins than we might have anticipated based mostly on their established ranges of latest efficiency. As a result of, rookie or not, high coaches are those who coax one of the best performances out of their gamers.
Preseason over/below wins: 8.5
Present win projection: 23.9
Distinction: +15.4
Nice surprises: Veronica Burton (+5.1 wins); Temi Fagbenle (+2.4)
The favourite to win Coach of the Yr, Nakase has executed an unbelievable job molding collectively the WNBA’s first enlargement group in 17 years. The preliminary version of the Valkyries should not simply way more aggressive than anticipated — their preseason O/U complete was a mere 8.5 wins! — however they’ve all however assured themselves of a playoff berth, which a first-year membership hasn’t executed since 1997, when each WNBA group was technically in its first season.
Nakase’s group has leaned on its protection specifically, rating fifth in defensive effectivity and No. 1 in fewest factors allowed per sport, whereas yielding the league’s lowest efficient FG% (47.2) by a cushty margin. (Associated: Eight of the 12 certified WNBA gamers permitting the fewest paint factors per 100 possessions are Valkyries.)
Nakase’s high accomplishments at Golden State’s helm embody unlocking the potential of Burton, the previous No. 7 choose within the draft out of Northwestern who struggled to search out an expanded position — regardless of good per-minute numbers — in Dallas and Connecticut over her first three seasons. Enjoying a career-high 29.3 MPG, Burton has emerged as Golden State’s finest participant and a two-way contributor who could make a distinction in a wide range of other ways. She leads a big group of Valkyries who’ve carried out a lot better than of their earlier stops; of Golden State’s 9 main minute-earning veterans, seven have an above-average RAPTOR score and 7 are monitoring to generate extra wins than their previously-established stage of manufacturing.
This kind of across-the-roster enchancment is commonly the hallmark of nice teaching.
Preseason over/below wins: 21.5
Present win projection: 29.4
Distinction: +7.9
Nice surprises: Allisha Grey (+2.0 wins); Maya Caldwell (+2.0)
The Dream had been hoping to return to a near-.500 stage — like that they had performed at in 2023, after they went 19-21 — after a down 12 months in 2024 below former coach Tanisha Wright; they weren’t essentially anticipated to be within the subject of title contenders. Atlanta has by no means been a powerhouse anyway; even when the Dream made three Finals appearances in 4 years from 2010 to 2013, they by no means ranked higher than fourth in internet score in the course of the common season.
It’s a testomony to the job executed by Smesko, the previous Florida Gulf Coast architect who had solely coached in school earlier than this, that the Dream are proper subsequent to the Lynx and Aces within the Elo title odds — and forward of the slumping defending champion Liberty. Together with Minnesota, which ranks No. 1 in each classes, Atlanta is one in every of simply two groups which might be top-two on each offense and protection this 12 months, with guard Allisha Grey discovering a brand new gear to her sport at age 30 because the group’s main scorer, and the remainder of a deep roster displaying up large. (Of their eight most frequently-used gamers by minutes, solely Brittney Griner has a detrimental RAPTOR.)
What’s much more spectacular is that the Dream have executed this with two of their finest gamers, Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada, injured for important stretches of the season. We’d see much more of Smesko’s teaching at work with them again for the playoffs.
Preseason over/below wins: 14.5
Present win projection: 17.0
Distinction: +2.5
Nice surprises: Sonia Citron (+5.3 wins); Sug Sutton (+2.3)
The Mystics gained’t make the playoffs this 12 months, which is disappointing for a group that has simply three postseason bids (all first-round losses) within the six seasons since its magical run to the 2019 championship. Nonetheless, Johnson does have Washington on monitor to beat its modest preseason win complete, regardless of relying closely on an inexperienced group in his first season as a WNBA head coach.
With a median minute-weighted roster age of 24.7, the Mystics are the youngest group within the league by a reasonably extensive margin over the Wings (25.3) and Valkyries (27.1). Washington’s two main gamers by minutes are a pair of rookies (Citron and Kiki Iriafen), and Nos. 3 and 4 in enjoying time (Sug Sutton and Jade Melbourne) had mixed for simply two earlier seasons with greater than 400 minutes on the WNBA stage. The group additionally traded Brittney Sykes, its most established participant, to the Storm in early August.
Johnson has gotten a lot of encouraging performances out of his youthful gamers — most notably Citron, who performed at Notre Dame and appears as if she shall be one of many league’s high guards for years to return.
Preseason over/below wins: 20.5
Present win projection: 20.7
Distinction: +0.2
Nice surprises: Azura Stevens (+3.4 wins); Dearica Hamby (+2.7)
The Sparks will more than likely miss out on the playoffs in Roberts’ first season as coach after an extended stint on the helm of Utah’s program. However whereas they’re monitoring to complete beneath .500 for the fifth consecutive season, they’re additionally on tempo to exceed their preseason win complete — and there are different indicators of progress for a group that has risen from a internet score of -9.1 final season to a extra aggressive -2.6 this 12 months.
Franchise centerpiece Kelsey Plum has been her typical self, however Roberts has additionally overseen ongoing enhancements from veterans Hamby and Stevens, with guard Julie Allemand additionally reinvigorating her WNBA profession after spending a number of years abroad.
Preseason over/below wins: 10.5
Present win projection: 10.7
Distinction: +0.2
Nice surprises: Leila Lacan (+3.3 wins); Saniya Rivers (+2.5)
There’s not an entire lot of fine popping out of this season for Connecticut, which is the league’s worst group in Basketball Reference’s Easy Scores System, and has fallen removed from grace after a run of eight straight playoff appearances (together with two Finals runs) between 2017 and 2024. However the younger trio of Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Rivers and Lacan — who has been their most impactful participant when given an opportunity to play — has stored the Solar working at a tempo above their preseason win complete (if solely barely).
Preseason over/below wins: 18.5
Present win projection: 10.7
Distinction: -7.8
Nice surprises: Kamilla Cardoso (+0.9 wins); Rachel Banham (+0.3)
The Sky missed the playoffs with a 13-27 report and -6.5 internet score (third-worst within the WNBA) below Teresa Weatherspoon final season. However this season’s model of the Sky below Marsh has been a lot worse — and extra disappointing. Not like in 2024, after they had been anticipated to play to the extent of their 12.5-win over/below, extra was anticipated from the 2025 Sky after making headlines with offseason strikes for Courtney Vandersloot, Ariel Atkins, Rebecca Allen and Kia Nurse. However Vandersloot was injured after simply seven video games and Allen is having arguably a career-worst season.
Shedding seven of their first 10 video games by a median margin of practically 20 PPG foreshadowed their Twelfth-ranked -12.1 internet score on the season.
Angel Reese served a half-game suspension on Sunday after complaining in regards to the Sky’s expertise stage, saying she “might need to maneuver in a unique route” if the roster didn’t enhance. (It’s value noting she has a decrease RAPTOR score than in her rookie marketing campaign.) However the episode illustrated the general frustration stage in Chicago round how Marsh’s group has failed to fulfill expectations this 12 months.
Preseason over/below wins: 19.5
Present win projection: 9.7
Distinction: -9.8
Nice surprises: Paige Bueckers (+5.1 wins); Luisa Geiselsoder (+1.2)
Maybe anticipating a Caitlin Clark-style rookie impact from Bueckers, the oddsmakers set a 19.5-win over/below for the 2025 Wings regardless of them having gone 9-31 below earlier coach Latricia Trammell final season. It actually has been a new-look roster in Dallas — solely three members of that 2024 squad (Arike Ogunbowale, Teaira McCowan and Maddy Siegrist) returned for 2025, whereas the group revamped with veterans Tyasha Harris, DiJonai Carrington, Myisha Hines-Allen and NaLyssa Smith, along with rookies Bueckers, Geiselsoder, Aziaha James and JJ Quinerly, amongst others.
However the veteran arrivals have uniformly underperformed their earlier established RAPTOR wins added, and many of the rookies are taking time to regulate. That has led to a state of affairs through which Bueckers is having one of many WNBA’s all-time “nice participant on a nasty group” seasons in her debut marketing campaign — which is spectacular for her, however not a terrific reflection on Koclanes’ potential to enhance his younger star with simpler play from others, notably on a protection that ranks lifeless final.
Leave a Reply