Russian President Vladimir Putin's circumstances for a ceasefire are unrealistic and tantamount to demanding that Ukraine disarm itself and give up, analysts say.
Putin mentioned on March 13 that Russia was able to comply with the U.S.-backed 30-day-long ceasefire in Ukraine however then adopted by itemizing quite a few calls for — a ban on Ukrainian mobilization or coaching of troops and a halt on Western army help for Kyiv.
Putin additionally hinted that Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk Oblast should give up.
Later the identical day, U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Putin in Moscow.
Trump reacted by saying on March 14, "We had superb and productive discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia yesterday, and there’s a superb probability that this horrible, bloody battle can lastly come to an finish."
"It seems that Putin pretends to just accept a ceasefire in precept, so as to not be criticized for being obstructive, however calls for concessions as a precondition," Richard Betts, professor emeritus of battle and peace research at Columbia College, advised the Kyiv Unbiased.
"That is constant together with his earlier calls for that Ukraine should comply with concessions earlier than Russia negotiates with it. In brief, Putin seems to view negotiations for a peace settlement not as a bargaining course of however as a course of for arranging the circumstances of Ukraine's give up."
The Kyiv IndependentYana Prots
Enjoying Trump's recreation
Peter Tough, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, argued that "Putin can't afford to say no to Trump altogether however will add a collection of circumstances."
"Putin could not be capable of take Kyiv on this spherical of battle, however he might be able to get the Donbas, and he’ll attempt to apply the Georgia mannequin of hybrid battle to take Kyiv later," he mentioned.
"His response to the ceasefire proposal is just the primary in a collection of counter-proposals to realize that aim. The underside line is he hasn't modified his aim of subsuming Ukraine."
William Wohlforth, a professor specializing in worldwide relations at Dartmouth School, additionally mentioned that "Putin's extremely conditional 'unconditional' acceptance of the 'thought' of a ceasefire is supposed to play for time and see how a lot strain the Trump administration is prepared to exert, and on whom, to make progress."
"To me, Putin's feedback in response to the ceasefire thought recommend a need to maintain momentum within the enchancment in relations with the Trump administration whereas on the identical time not saying something that might compromise his bigger political goal with respect to Ukraine," he added.
Putin's assertion on 'root causes'
Putin mentioned, "We agree with the proposals to stop hostilities, however they need to result in long-term peace and deal with the basis causes of the disaster."
Bettina Renz, a professor of worldwide safety at Nottingham College and the creator of the guide "Russia's Army Revival," argued that "his demand that the 'root causes' of the battle should be addressed as a precondition for the ceasefire settlement is especially regarding."
"Considering again to February 2022, the 'root causes' of and justifications for the invasion listed by the Kremlin have been sweeping and included, amongst different issues, NATO enlargement for the reason that Nineties, a denial of the legitimacy of the democratically elected Ukrainian authorities, and the 'militarisation' of Ukraine," she mentioned.
"If addressing these 'root causes' in Russia's favor is a precondition for a 30-day ceasefire settlement within the Kremlin's eyes, that is clearly unreasonable and unrealistic. At this level, it seems just like the Kremlin can be ready to comply with a ceasefire solely below circumstances that are perfect for Russia."
Disarming and 'demilitarizing' Ukraine
Putin additionally claimed that Russian troops have been "advancing on virtually all sections of the entrance line."
"Situations are additionally being created there for us to encircle and block total pretty giant enemy items," he mentioned. "How will these 30 days be used? Will pressured mobilization proceed in Ukraine? Will weapons be provided there? Will newly mobilized items endure coaching? Or will none of this occur?"
Putin's claims about Russia's all-around advances have been false.
Russia has been on the offensive in Donetsk Oblast since 2023. Nevertheless, in current months, its advance has slowed down in lots of areas, with Ukraine even conducting counteroffensives close to the cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
The Kremlin's solely main success in current weeks was Ukraine's withdrawal from part of Russia's Kursk Oblast as Russian troops lower off logistical routes within the area.
Putin's demand that Ukraine ought to cease mobilization and coaching and mustn’t obtain Western army help doesn’t make any sense and won’t be accepted by Kyiv, consultants say.
"In fact, Ukraine received't put limits by itself army forces. That will be suicidal," Tough mentioned. "It additionally received't cease asking for and receiving weapons from the West. That will be suicidal as properly. These are non-starters, and even Putin should perceive that."
Stefan Wolff, professor of worldwide safety on the College of Birmingham, advised the Kyiv Unbiased that Putin "desires a weak Ukraine that’s unable to defend itself and has no capacity to withstand Russian strain."
"The earlier he achieves that, the extra possible it’s that he can impose his personal circumstances," he added. "A part of his unique battle goals was the demilitarization of Ukraine, and a part of that is depriving Ukraine of Western army assist."
Renz argued that "Putin's considerations over Ukraine utilizing a 30-day ceasefire to regroup and rearm, and over the difficulties of monitoring such a ceasefire, seek advice from limitations affecting any ceasefire settlement."
"Ceasefire agreements are at all times merely a primary step within the cessation of armed battle and a compromise, and their success can by no means be assured," she added. "Clearly, the Ukrainian management has comparable considerations a few ceasefire settlement with Russia. Nevertheless, compared to the Kremlin, the Ukrainian management willingly expressed the readiness to just accept a ceasefire regardless of these dangers."
Volodymyr Ariev, a member of parliament from the opposition European Solidarity get together, advised the Kyiv Unbiased that Ukraine may put ahead counter-demands.
For instance, Kyiv may say that Russia ought to cease transporting further army tools to Ukraine and recruiting troopers for its battle effort, he added.
The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov
Alleged encirclement in Kursk Oblast
Putin additionally claimed that "within the coming days, a bodily blockade (of Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk Oblast) will happen, that means that nobody will be capable of go away in any respect."
"There’ll solely be two choices — give up or perish," he mentioned. "If we stop hostilities for 30 days, what does that imply? That everybody there can be allowed to go away and not using a struggle? Are we purported to allow them to go after they’ve dedicated quite a few crimes in opposition to civilians?"
No proof has been offered for Putin's declare about alleged Ukrainian battle crimes in Kursk Oblast, and there’s no unbiased affirmation that Ukrainian troops are susceptible to being blockaded.
Every little thing that Putin mentioned is both false or has no speedy affirmation.
Nevertheless, Trump has picked up a number of the claims. On March 14, he urged Putin to "spare" the allegedly surrounded Ukrainian troops.
Ukraine's Normal Workers denied Trump's declare that Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast have been surrounded.
Wolff mentioned that Putin "clearly desires the troops out to deprive Ukraine of a important bargaining chip (Kursk Oblast), however he additionally would in all probability desire taking as lots of them as prisoners fairly than permitting them to strengthen Ukraine's entrance strains elsewhere."
"Maybe Putin would have been extra pliable if these negotiations had occurred at another time," a Russian creator dwelling in exile who requested to stay nameless out of safety considerations advised the Kyiv Unbiased. "However now, in opposition to the backdrop of the occasions within the Kursk area and the most recent statements and steps of the Trump administration, he appears to have solely grow to be extra assured of his future impunity."
Monitoring a ceasefire
Putin additionally raised the query of how violations of the ceasefire can be monitored and the way the ceasefire can be enforced.
Ukraine has additionally known as for resolving this concern and instructed that European peacekeepers be deployed to implement the ceasefire.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin has rejected the deployment of Western peacekeepers.
Wolff argued that it "is sensible from the Kremlin's perspective to ask for 'impartial' observers as a result of it weakens any potential safety ensures that Ukraine may get from having Western peacekeepers deployed."
"Putin's assertion on the ceasefire proposal doesn’t recommend readiness for peace, or not less than not for a peace that might contain any sort of compromise from the Russian facet," Renz mentioned.
Kyiv Unbiased journalist Kate Tsurkan contributed to this text.
The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post