U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's first team picks have both positive and negative implications for Ukraine, with Kyiv left guessing what kind of policy they will pursue, according to Ukrainian and Western analysts.
Some appointments seem to lean in Kyiv’s favor, while others hint at a more Moscow-friendly stance.
Analysts say that Trump has assembled a team of China hawks focused primarily on countering Beijing, which they see as the main economic and military threat to the U.S. They are less concerned with opposing Russia and view its war against Ukraine as a distraction from China.
"These are not the best choices (for Ukraine) but not the worst either," Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told the Kyiv Independent.
On Nov. 12, Trump chose Peter Hegseth, a conservative talk show host on Fox News, as his defense secretary. The move prompted concerns in Kyiv because Hegseth is an isolationist who has called for reducing the U.S. commitment to the NATO military alliance.
On the same day, Trump also picked billionaire Elon Musk and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy to run a new Department of Government Efficiency. The department, which is supposed to cut bureaucracy and reduce regulation, will “provide advice and guidance from outside of government,” Trump said.
Ramaswamy has made statements highly critical of Ukraine. Musk has prompted controversy by suggesting that Ukraine cede the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula to Russia and agree to a vote on the status of other occupied territories accounting for some 20% of state territory. However, it is not clear if Ramaswamy and Musk will have any influence on Trump’s foreign policy.
The decisions on Hegseth, Ramaswamy, and Musk were preceded by Trump's announcement on Nov. 9 that ex-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley would not join his team.
Pompeo and Haley are among the most pro-Ukrainian Republicans, and analysts say that Trump's decision not to hire them may point in the direction of a more Kremlin-friendly policy and a peace deal on Russia's terms.
Trump’s other decisions are seen as less negative for Ukraine.
He said on Nov. 12 that Michael Waltz would be appointed as his national security advisor. Reuters and other media also reported on Nov. 12 that Trump was expected to appoint Marco Rubio as secretary of state but this decision has not been officially announced yet.
Some commentators described Rubio and Waltz as more pro-Ukrainian and hawkish on Russia than other Trumpists. Others warned, however, that their record on Ukraine has been ambiguous, and it has yet to be seen to what extent they will back Kyiv.
"(Rubio and Waltz understand) that the U.S.' global position depends in part on its network of allies and partners, and on collaborating with them, which is good news for Ukraine," Charly Salonius-Pasternak, lead researcher at the Center on U.S. Politics and Power at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Both (Waltz and Rubio) do think Europe should spend more on its own defense and have become more skeptical of unlimited assistance to Ukraine… so both Waltz and Rubio have aligned themselves more with Trump’s policy ideas during the recent past. I think it’s reasonable news for Ukraine, but doesn’t change the overall picture," Salonius-Pasternak said.
The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat
Controversial defense secretary
Trump's pick for defense secretary, Hegseth, is a co-host of Fox & Friends Weekend, a talk show on the conservative TV channel Fox News.
Hegseth previously served as an infantry captain in the Army National Guard and as the executive director of two veteran organizations, Vets for Freedom and Concerned Veterans for America.
Hegseth's views on foreign policy and Ukraine in particular are controversial.
He has defended Trump's statement made during the invasion of Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin was "savvy" and a "genius." Hegseth argued that Trump was solely trying to "troll" the media amid the coverage of the war.
Hegseth has also stirred controversy by suggesting that Russia's full-scale invasion "pales in comparison" to "wokeness" — a conservative pejorative term for left-wing ideology in the U.S.
He is also skeptical about the NATO military alliance.
"Why should America, the European 'emergency contact number' for the past century, listen to self-righteous and impotent nations asking us to honor outdated and one-sided defense arrangements they no longer live up to?" Hegseth wrote in his 2024 book titled "The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free."
Unlike Rubio and Waltz, Hegseth is an outsider without any prior background in government. Fesenko, the Ukrainian political analyst, said that Trump’s decision on Hegseth was “surprising,” adding that it’s not clear what to expect from him.
The Kyiv IndependentBoldizsar Gyori
Other worrying signs for Ukraine
Musk, who will co-run the Department of Government Efficiency, also has controversial views on Ukraine.
Musk helped Ukraine in 2022 by providing Starlink satellite Internet terminals. But he prompted a scandal the same year by suggesting a peace plan that included Ukraine's neutral status, recognizing occupied Crimea as Russian, and holding a UN-supervised vote on the status of other occupied territories.
Musk’s portfolio will be focused on domestic policy. But Volodymyr Dubovyk, an expert on U.S.-Ukrainian relations and head of Odesa National University's Center for International Studies, argued that he could have considerable influence on foreign policy as well.
Musk joined Trump's call with Zelensky on Nov. 6, CNN and the New York Times reported, citing their sources.
Ramaswamy, Musk’s future colleague at the Department of Government Efficiency, was a candidate in the Republican primaries for the 2024 presidential election. He has made a number of virulently anti-Ukrainian statements.
"Joe Biden needs to man up to his bully-friend (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky and clearly state that we are dead-set opposed to the Ukrainian admission to NATO,” Ramaswamy wrote on X in 2023. “This should be a hard red line.”
In another attack on Zelensky, he said that, if elected president, he would “refuse to be bullied by an anti-democratic comedian-turned-leader and it’s truly mystifying to me that the rest of the West is eating out of this Pied Piper’s hand every day.”
Trump's decisions on Ramaswamy, Musk, and Hegseth mean that "all policy will be under the White House's direct control," Dubovyk said.
"All of them are loyal to Trump," he added.
Trump's Nov. 11 decision to nominate U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN has also triggered concerns because she voted against a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine in April. A group of Republicans blocked U.S. military aid for Ukraine for half a year from late 2023 to early 2024, hampering Ukraine’s defense.
The Kyiv IndependentChris York
Mixed feelings in Kyiv and among allies
Trump’s other personnel decisions are seen in a more positive light.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and former advisor to Zelensky’s office, wrote on X on Nov. 12 that both Rubio and Waltz were "good for Ukraine,” adding that Waltz had called for stepping up support for Kyiv.
Peter Rough, director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the conservative Hudson Institute, told the Kyiv Independent that Rubio and Waltz were "foreign policy professionals of the highest order" who "will defend U.S. interests vigorously, which requires a clear-eyed understanding of the threat posed by Russia."
Daniel Kochis, a senior fellow in the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute, told the Kyiv Independent that he “wouldn’t read the expected appointments of Rubio and Waltz as necessarily a bad sign for Ukraine.”
"The appointment of Rubio in particular may bode well" for Ukraine, he said.
Others were more skeptical about Trump's first picks.
"I would not read too much into Trump’s picks for specific posts," Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Unlike during his first term, when he to some extent followed the advice of his more experienced advisers, in his second term, I expect Trump to call the shots. He is picking people that he believes will be loyal and follow the leader."
The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova
Waltz’ views on Russia’s war against Ukraine
Waltz, Trump's pick for national security advisor, is a congressman from Florida and a retired Army Green Beret.
His views on Ukraine have changed since 2022.
In 2022, he called on Biden's administration to provide more weapons to Kyiv and argued that the majority of the Republican caucus supported U.S. assistance to Ukraine amid concerns that they could block aid.
“I think the vast majority of the conference realizes that we either pay now or pay later, that Russian President Vladimir Putin fully intends, if he takes Ukraine, to move on to NATO-allied countries like the Baltics, Poland, and Finland,” he said.
However, in October 2024, Waltz said that there must be a reassessment of the United States’ aims in Ukraine.
“Is (involvement in Ukraine) in America’s interest, are we going to put in the time, the treasure, the resources that we need in the Pacific right now badly?” Waltz asked.
Waltz is one of the leading U.S. critics of China, with Trump and his allies focusing more on opposing China than the Kremlin.
"The Trump-aligned foreign policy world has been hyper-focused on China and defense policy, as well as reducing U.S. commitments to NATO," Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Kyiv Independent.
"There is not a prominent Russia hand that I can think of in his orbit. Russia policy has not been a focus at all. As for Ukraine, there is some sympathy but it is also seen as a distraction from the China focus and there is a general desire to shift responsibility for supporting Ukraine to Europe."
Dubovyk said that Waltz "has both expressed support for Ukraine and voiced doubts about continuing it.”
"I think we’ll also need to wait and see which sentiments prevail overall in the White House, as Waltz could go either way regarding Ukraine," he told the Kyiv Independent.
Oleksandr Kraiev, head of the North America program at the Ukrainian Prism think-tank, also said that it was difficult to say to what extent Waltz would support Ukraine. He told the Kyiv Independent that Waltz was seen as a staunch Trump loyalist.
The Kyiv IndependentBoldizsar Gyori
The ambiguous record of Rubio and Ratcliffe
Rubio, a senator from Florida and a Republican candidate in the 2016 presidential election, initially condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine and supported its efforts to push back Russian troops.
However, in April, he voted against the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine passed by Congress.
Kochis emphasized that, according to Rubio, he voted against the bill due to a lack of compromise with Biden on immigration, not due to his opposition to support for Ukraine.
In September, Rubio also called for achieving a peaceful settlement instead of helping Ukraine regain Russian-occupied territories.
“I’m not on Russia’s side — but, unfortunately, the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement,” Rubio told NBC.
Dubovyk and Kraiev said that Rubio is considered to be more pro-Ukrainian, compared to other Trump supporters.
"For us, it's a positive signal," Kraiev said. "He has made statements supportive of Ukraine."
Kraiev argued that Rubio, who criticized Trump in the Republican primaries, is seen as independent and is not a Trumpist "fanatic."
However, according to Dubovyk, he will likely coordinate his actions with Trump’s close allies.
"So he (Rubio) may not be one of those making key decisions," Dubovyk said.
Ruth Deyermond, senior lecturer in post-Soviet security at King's College London, argued that, regardless of Rubio's possible appointment, Trump's administration "seems likely to be dominated by individuals – including the president and vice president – who maintain positions so strongly favorable to the Kremlin."
"Even some of those individuals mentioned as possible picks who used to be very hawkish on Russia, such as Rubio, have changed their positions in recent years, aligning themselves much more with Trump," she told the Kyiv Independent.
Another Trump pick, John Ratcliffe, also has a mixed record.
Ratcliffe, who is expected to become director of the CIA, was a Congressman from 2015 to 2020 and Trump's director of national intelligence from 2020 to 2021. Like Waltz, he is known as a China hawk.
In 2020, Ratcliffe sparked controversy by declassifying Russian disinformation that Hillary Clinton had personally approved a scheme to associate Trump with Putin and the Russian hacking of the Democratic National Committee.
In 2022, however, Ratcliffe was supportive of Ukraine and criticized the Biden administration for what he saw as its weak response to Russia's full-scale invasion.
Dubovyk described Ratcliffe as a Trump loyalist who has “no independent political weight.”
The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov
Ukraine’s strongest supporters are out
Both Waltz and Rubio are seen as more ambiguous on Ukraine than Pompeo and Haley, who are among the most pro-Ukrainian Republicans, according to analysts. As a result, Trump's decision not to hire them has prompted concerns in Kyiv.
Pompeo was a member of Trump's team during his first term: as head of the Central Intelligence Agency from 2017 to 2018 and as secretary of state from 2018 to 2021.
In July, Pompeo published an op-ed claiming that Trump would support Ukraine if elected. He suggested driving down energy prices to shrink "Putin’s war-crimes budget," imposing “real” sanctions on Russia, revitalizing NATO, creating "a $500 billion lend-lease program for Ukraine," and lifting "all restrictions on the type of weapons Ukraine can obtain and use."
"(Trump's) early disclosure that he does not intend to tap Haley or Pompeo suggests he will stay away from more hawkish Republicans," Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said.
"That news is hardly surprising given Trump’s apparent determination to steer clear of the 'adults in the room' that tried to tame his isolationist and unilateralist impulses during his first term."
Deyermond agreed with this assessment.
"The announcement that Trump won't be appointing either Pompeo or Haley (together with H.R. McMaster, the strongest critics of Russia in the first Trump administration) is a confirmation of what was already obvious,” he said.
“The new Trump administration is likely to align much more with Russia than with the U.S. allies on Ukraine," he added.
Commenting on Trump's decision not to appoint Pompeo and Haley, Bergmann said that "few in his administration will want to prioritize or focus on Ukraine because of where Trump is on Russia."
"Any committed Russia hawks in the administration – if there are any – are unlikely to have much influence," he added. "The challenge will be convincing Trump to ask Congress for more military aid to Ukraine."
Meanwhile, Mykhailo Minakov, head of the Ukrainian Research Program at the Kennan Institute, said that he "would have been surprised if (Pompeo and Haley) had been invited (to join Trump's team)" because they "strongly criticized Donald Trump and did not actively support him during his campaign."
"I think it's more personal than ideological," he told the Kyiv Independent.
The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov