In February, client inflation dynamics remained near the trajectory forecast by the Nationwide Financial institution of Ukraine (NBU), however core inflation continued to be increased than anticipated as a result of rising enterprise prices, notably for salaries.
Supply: Nationwide Financial institution of Ukraine
Particulars: Costs for uncooked meals merchandise rose by 13%, with fruit, sure livestock merchandise, flour and grain turning into costlier as a result of lingering results of final yr’s poor harvests. Costs for pork, poultry and sugar approached these in Ukraine’s buying and selling associate nations on the again of steady exports.
In the meantime, vegetable value will increase slowed barely as a result of elevated imports, the arrival of a brand new greenhouse harvest and decrease demand for some objects.
Processed meals inflation accelerated to 16.7% in February as a result of rising prices of uncooked supplies and elevated enterprise bills for electrical energy, salaries and logistics. Consequently, bread, sure bakery merchandise, oil, meat and dairy merchandise noticed important value hikes. Moreover, rising international market costs led to increased prices for some imported items, corresponding to cheese, tea, espresso and chocolate.
Costs for non-food objects grew barely quicker, reaching 4.4% year-on-year. Nevertheless, clothes and footwear costs remained decrease than final yr.
The tempo of service value will increase additionally barely accelerated to 14.3%.
Regulated costs rose by 18.1%. The price of excisable items elevated extra quickly as a result of increased manufacturing prices and value changes linked to stricter measures towards the shadow market and the possible impression of the anticipated check launch of the E-excise system. Rising manufacturing prices additionally drove up costs for prescribed drugs, medical items and gear. Nevertheless, the continued moratorium on tariff hikes for sure utility companies continued to curb administrative inflation.
Gas costs elevated by 13.9%. In February, gasoline value progress accelerated in comparison with January, primarily as a result of a pointy rise in the price of LPG automobile gasoline.
Nevertheless, an oversupply of petrol, competitors amongst gasoline stations and optimised import logistics helped restrain additional value will increase.
The NBU forecasts that inflation will proceed rising within the coming months as a result of ongoing impression of final yr’s poor harvests and rising power and labour prices for companies.
Nevertheless, the NBU expects inflation to sluggish within the second half of the yr as a result of tighter financial coverage measures and the gradual fading of short-term inflationary components. Inflation is anticipated to drop to a single-digit degree by the top of the yr and proceed shifting in direction of the 5% goal in the long term.
Background: Shopper inflation in Ukraine elevated by 0.8% in February 2025 in comparison with January, reaching an annual charge of 13.4%.
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