Author: dmitriy.vasyura@gmail.com

PoliticsWar Europe and Canada must unite to guarantee Ukraine’s security amid Trump’s return to the White House. Thursday, November 21, 2024

As stated in an open appeal, which was signed by 79 current and former politicians, military personnel, and political scientists who are anxiously waiting to see what Trump will do when he begins his second presidential term, the Polish Prime Minister has called for the creation of a coalition of states ready to guarantee Ukraine’s security and deter further aggression by Russia. The Baltic countries, the Nordic countries, Britain, France, Canada, and the Netherlands could all join Poland in the intiative. By changing politics on the ground, the coalition will encourage others to join it, and Europeans and Canadians will be able to defend themselves and their interests regardless of US actions.

The signatories propose to implement five points, which include: arming Ukraine for victory jointly, confiscating all Russian frozen assets to finance Ukraine’s victory, and expanding air defenses over western Ukraine to provide cover for coalition troops on the ground. It is also proposed that real security guarantees, including mutual defense, be provided before Ukraine joins NATO, and the coalition will undertake to spend at least 3% of GDP annually on defense and jointly purchased equipment.

PoliticsWar The US is providing a $275M military aid package, Denmark is preparing additional F-16s, and the German parliament is reviewing its Taurus authorization. Thursday, November 21, 2024

US President Joe Biden approved the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine. The decision is a radical change in his policy and comes in response to the intensification of the Russian offensive in the eastern regions of Ukraine. The Pentagon also provided Ukraine with a new $275M aid package, which includes HIMARS ammunition, 155 mm and 105 mm artillery ammunition, mortar shells, drones, TOW missiles, and Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems.

As well, Denmark plans to transfer two parties of American F-16 fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, making it 19 aircraft in total. So far, Ukraine has already received six fighters from Copenhagen, which also continues to train pilots.

Moreover, now that the US and UK have allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles, the Bundestag will reconsider transferring Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine, despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s refusal to provide them.

PoliticsWar The Economist predicts the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine in 2025. Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fighting between Russia and Ukraine could end in 2025, as both sides are close to exhaustion. The Russian economy is suffering due to Western sanctions, labor shortages, and people leaving the country. Inflation in the country has reached double digits, interest rates have soared to 21%, and 40% of the budget is devoted to the war.

In parallel with this, the pressure on Ukraine to start one or another form of negotiations with Russia may increase next year. As part of a possible agreement, Ukraine “will have to come to terms with the loss of part of its territory.” However, the country must receive reliable security guarantees, with the ideal option being full NATO membership.

“However, with Trump’s return to power, Ukraine will probably not join NATO for many years, but it may still receive certain security guarantees,” the article says.

President Zelenskyy previously stated that Trump will not be able to force Ukraine to make territorial concessions, but Ukraine seeks to end the war no later than 2025.

FinancePoliticsWar The EU will spend the revenue from frozen Russian assets on armaments for Ukraine. Thursday, November 21, 2024

The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, proposed directing a significant part of the future second tranche of revenue from frozen Russian assets to the Ukrainian defense industry. According to Borrell, by the end of the year new supplies of military equipment for Ukraine will also be financed from the same source. From the first tranche of these funds of €1.5B, the EU invested €400M in the Ukrainian defense industry, which paid for the production of Bohdana howitzers.

Currently, Borrell proposes that a significant part of the second €1.9B tranche, which will become available in March or April, be used to purchase military equipment for Ukraine from the country’s manufacturers.

Ukraine’s European partners’ plans regarding the use of the profits from the frozen assets were also confirmed by the Minister of Defense of Germany, Boris Pistorius. He added that the EU has managed to transfer the promised one million artillery shells to Ukraine, so currently Ukrainian and Russian troops have reached parity in this regard.

PoliticsWar The UK allows Ukraine to use British Storm Shadow missiles deep inside Russia. Thursday, November 21, 2024

According to The Times, the change in London’s position may have resulted from the US giving permission for Ukraine to use its ATACMS long-range missiles, which was announced on November 17.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has wanted to allow Ukraine to use weapons as it needed and put pressure on Washington. However, his public statements were cautious. This is because Storm Shadow missiles use American targeting technology. However, Starmer later threw caution to the wind and hinted that using Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes was only a matter of time.

Bloomberg reported that on November 20 Ukraine struck Russian territory for the first time using the British Storm Shadow. Wreckage of the British rockets was reported to be found in the Kursk region, and two more missiles were intercepted in the sky over the Krasnodar region. However, this information has not yet been confirmed.

PoliticsWar Putin is ready to freeze the war at the current front line on the condition that Ukraine renounces NATO. Thursday, November 21, 2024

Officials close to the Kremlin told Reuters that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is reportedly ready to discuss with Donald Trump a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine and freezing the war in place. The “separation” of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions will probably be discussed during the negotiations. In return, Russia may be ready to withdraw from the small areas of territory it holds in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions. But “the future of Crimea is not up for discussion.”

Putin’s conditions also include Ukraine refusing NATO membership and Alliance troops being stationed on its territory. But the Kremlin is “open to discussing security guarantees for Kyiv.” In addition, Russia may demand that Ukraine limit the size of its armed forces and undertake not to restrict the use of the Russian language. Putin could present such an agreement to Russians as “a victory that ensured the protection of the Russian-speaking population in eastern Ukraine and protected the land bridge to Crimea.”

FinancePolitics The largest EU economies will issue joint defense bonds to stop the Russian Federation’s “imperial ambitions.” Friday, November 22, 2024

During a meeting of heads of foreign affairs from five EU countries, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland gave their support to a proposal to create joint European defense bonds to strengthen the bloc’s defense industry.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Radosław Sikorski, called this event “a big deal.” He added that the development would help “Europe to strongly oppose the imperial ambitions of the Russian Federation.”

Sikorsky continued, “We agreed that Europe should take greater responsibility for its own security, and this includes a more balanced distribution of the burden among NATO members.”

The heads of foreign affairs discussed the strengthening of Europe’s military support for Ukraine, as well as ties with the US under incoming US President Trump’s leadership, who has repeatedly stated that he expects Europe to make a greater effort to defend itself in the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

InvestmentsPoliticsWar Ukraine and 12 European countries unite in a new defense cooperation format. Friday, November 22, 2024

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced the beginning of a collaboration with 12 countries within the Nordic Group-Ukraine framework, which will strengthen Ukraine’s security and provide support. Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, and the UK have joined the cooperative.

Umerov stated that investment in the Ukrainian defense industry is a separate priority. More countries are joining to finance Ukrainian weapon production, particularly Sweden, Norway, and Lithuania within the framework of the Danish model.

Norway has allocated NRK 500M ($45M) to finance the production of weapons and military equipment by Ukrainian enterprises for the Armed Forces.

The Canadian government submitted a budget document to the House of Commons containing a request to allocate about $587M for Ukrainian military aid. The document also includes about $307M for financial assistance and $35M for demining and strengthening Ukraine’s cyber security.

Also, the Hungarian government ordered the deployment of air defense systems near the Ukrainian border due to fears of an escalation in the war.

PoliticsWar New long-range strikes on Russia will help Trump conduct negotiations with Russia; the American president-elect is against an unfavorable agreement for Ukraine. Friday, November 22, 2024

When US President Joe Biden allowed the Ukraine’s military to use US weapons to strike targets in Russia, he did his successor, Donald Trump, a great strategic favor, according to Bloomberg. This development should force the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to conduct genuine negotiations and not continue empty talks. “Putin is trying to be as aggressive as possible in Ukraine to strengthen his position before the new era of geopolitics,” the analyst explains, referring to Trump’s return to office.

In turn, British Minister of Foreign Affairs David Lammy is convinced that Trump will not support an unfavorable agreement for Ukraine in the context of ending the war.

“He wants to get the right deal for the American people. And that is sustainable peace in Europe, not Russia achieving its goals and returning for new conquests in the years to come,” Lammy said.

FinancePolitics The Biden administration plans to cancel over $4.6B of Ukraine’s debt. Friday, November 22, 2024

US President Joe Biden submitted a statement to the US Congress stating his intention to forgive half of Ukraine’s debt for economic assistance that was received as a loan.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the amount of forgiven debt is approximately $4.65B. In the spring, the US Congress passed the Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, which provided about $61B in funding for Ukraine. The terms indicate that about $10B in economic aid were provided to Ukraine a conditional revolving loan, rather than a grant. The terms also give the US president the authority to forgive 50% of this loan, and the next US president can forgive the remaining 50% after January 1, 2026. However, the US Congress may protest this by passing a resolution of disapproval.

“I would be surprised if Congress took such a step, given the overwhelming bipartisan support in Congress for aid to Ukraine. But we will abide by the law,” Miller added.