Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will head the Russian delegation to the Group of Twenty (G20) summit instead of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian state news agency TASS reported on Nov. 12, citing Russian Ambassador Marat Berdyev.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) in March 2023 issued a warrant for Putin's arrest due to his role in the deportation of Ukrainian children. Brazil is a party to the ICC's Rome Statute and, therefore, is required to detain Putin if he enters the country.
Brazil previously issued a standard invitation to Putin for the summit, which will convene heads of state of G20 nations in Rio de Janeiro Nov. 18-19.
In October, Putin said he would not attend the Rio de Janeiro summit, claiming he did not want to "disrupt the normal work of the forum."
Lavrov has repeatedly represented Putin at events involving world leaders, including sessions of the U.N. General Assembly and last year's G20 summit in India.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in September 2023 that the decision to detain Putin at the G20 would be left to his country's judiciary.
Putin visited Mongolia, an ICC member state, in September of this year, his first such visit since his arrest warrant was made public. Despite Mongolia's obligation under international law to arrest Putin, the Russian president received a warm welcome in Ulaanbaatar.
Ukrainian lawmakers described Putin's Mongolia visit as "a well-planned provocation" meant to show his indifference to the rule of law.
The Pentagon announced the availability of another $7.1 billion for military support to Ukraine under USAI. The funds include $4.3 billion for 2024 and $2.8 billion in refunds.
The United States has $7.1 billion left for military support to Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. This was announced by the Pentagon spokesman at a briefing, UNN reports.
Details
According to a Pentagon spokesman, these funds include $4.3 billion for fiscal year 2024 and $2.8 billion in returned funds, of which $2.21 billion remain in the United States.
The Pentagon spokesman emphasized that the United States will continue to actively assist Ukraine, using these resources to provide the necessary means to deter Russian aggression.
In addition, another $2.2 billion is available under the USAI program, which will also help strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities.
US arms support for Ukraine will continue – PentagonFeb 16 2024, 02:49 AM • 47059 views
Over the past week, Russia had been gathering forces in what appears to be preparations for a decisive push in the country's Kursk Oblast.
"The situation is changing every day. Not long ago, we were on the offensive, and now we are on the defensive," a 35-year-old artilleryman with the callsign Spys, fighting in the area, told the Kyiv Independent.
In light of the recent advances of Russian troops in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv oblasts, the country now faces a new challenge: defending the positions gained in the August cross-border offensive.
Ukrainian soldiers are holding off nearly 50,000 troops in Russia's embattled Kursk Oblast, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 11.
Spared from decreasing the number of personnel conducting assaults in Ukraine's east and beefed up by over 10,000 soldiers from North Korea, Russia is likely to attempt to launch a major offensive from the north, potentially not stopping at the now nonexistent border.
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported in early October that Russia had transferred around 50,000 soldiers from the front to Kursk Oblast. In early November, Ukrainian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the New York Times (NYT) that an assault involving these soldiers would take place "very soon."
The Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast consists of marine brigades, including the 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, an airborne division, special forces battalion units, and a number of assault battalions, according to Vadym Mysnyk, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Operational Tactical Group Siversk.
Experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent noted that Russia had also deployed troops from the Leningrad Military District, stationed near St. Petersburg, and even formed some infantry units from military personnel who had previously maintained Russian airfields.
"The Ukrainian military was able to gain advantageous heights in Kursk Oblast and thus lured Russian reserves," Ukrainian military expert Dmytro Zhmailo told the Kyiv Independent.
A visualization of Russian advances around Kursk Oblast over autumn 2024. (Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent)
"If we had not done this, 50,000 troops would have definitely replenished the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and other priority directions for the Russians, and then the (Russian) advance in the east (of Ukraine) would have been more painful," Zhmailo added.
Although the Kursk operation has been ongoing for several months, the Russian military involved in the area is still coordinating and forming combat units.
As of early November, about 11,000 North Korean soldiers were already in Kursk Oblast. According to a report by the New York Times, North Korean troops would be fighting as light infantry, vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks, without the assistance of armored vehicles.
Zhmailo agreed with the following assessment, adding that the number of North Korean soldiers transferred to Kursk Oblast will not significantly affect the course of the battle, given the recent Russian losses.
He added that it is difficult to determine how effective North Korean troops are as there have been very few military clashes. Another Ukrainian defense expert, Andrii Kharuk, echoes Zhmailo's stance, mentioning that North Korean troops have not been involved in wars since 1953.
The deployment of North Korean soldiers as light infantry is the most rational in terms of tactics, Kharuk added.
"During the Korean War in 1950-1953, North Korean troops acted in small groups, using the tactic of 'infiltration' (between the opponent's military units) and consolidation of assault operations. This is a traditional tactic for them," Kharuk said.
Among the challenges faced by North Korean soldiers, Kharuk mentioned the language barrier and that the North Korean army mainly fought in mountainous terrain. In Kursk Oblast, it faces a gently undulating plain.
Yet, the expert emphasized that in any case, 50,000 personnel in this area is a "rather large number."
"These are actually Russian losses of a month or a month and a half. It will take us a month and a half to knock out this number of troops ," Kharuk said.
"Their accumulation in Kursk Oblast is a positive thing. On the other hand, we cannot say for sure how many Ukrainian troops are involved in deterring Russian and North Korean troops."
Open road to Sumy
The Ukrainian command hasn't provided updates on the state affairs for Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. Officials also do not disclose which units are fighting in this area.
DeepState, a Ukrainian crowdsourced monitoring website, reported late on Oct. 10 that Russia managed to push through the left flank of Ukraine's salient in Kursk Oblast.
"The enemy is now trying to establish a foothold near the settlements of Novoivanovka and Zeleny Shliakh," DeepState reported on Telegram. The two settlements lie some 15 kilometers from the Ukrainian-held town of Sudzha and around 10 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border.
Parallel messages also appeared on Russian pro-war channels. The well-known Rybar channel wrote that Russian forces launched several attacks in the Korenevsky and Sudzhansky districts, in which Ukraine established its foothold.
"I suspect both sides are taking significant losses in Kursk Oblast, with the Russians likely suffering considerably higher losses given that they are on the offensive," John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Ukraine's casualty rate may start to rise as trees shed their leaves, providing less concealment from Russian reconnaissance drones and exposing Ukrainian troops to greater threats from Russian artillery, glide bombs, and so on."
Ukraine continues to maintain its positions on Russian territory not only from a strategic point of view but also from a geopolitical one, experts interviewed by the Kyiv Independent said.
"Withdrawing Ukrainian units from Kursk Oblast could help in the east (of Ukraine), though it would also mean sacrificing a potential bargaining chip in peace talks. However, stabilizing its lines in the east is also critical for Ukraine's negotiating position, and I doubt Moscow will be willing to begin negotiations until it has retaken all the territory in Kursk (Oblast)," Hardie said.
While Ukraine continues to retain Russian territories in Kursk Oblast, Russia keeps advancing at an increased pace deeper into Donetsk Oblast and beyond. In August and September, Moscow seized 5.5 times more Ukrainian territory than in all of 2023, according to the Ua War Infographics project.
Kharuk called the potential loss of positions in Kursk Oblast in favor of reinforcing troops in other parts of the front "insignificant" for Ukraine from a psychological point of view, as it is Russian territory.
At the same time, experts agree that Ukraine can hold Russian territories at least until early 2025.
Zhmailo said that Russian troops would most likely advance into northern Sumy Oblast if they breach Ukrainian defenses in the neighboring Kursk Oblast.
Ukraine's operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast has helped prevent the occupation of Sumy Oblast and its regional center, the city of Sumy, Zelensky said on a number of occasions since the start of the offensive in early August.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election has cast a shadow over further American assistance to Ukraine. The Republican candidate has repeatedly made controversial statements about the war and the Ukrainian government, including Zelensky.
"No country in the world, except for the U.S. and China, can stand up to Russia's military on its own. So, unfortunately, we are dependent on our partners here," Zmailo added, speaking about further Ukrainian operations on Russian soil.
While the debate over future military aid for Ukraine rages on, the Ukrainian military still holds the front in Kursk Oblast. The artilleryman with the call sign Spys, who has been fighting in the Kursk sector since August, said that things are still "more or less stable."
"Russian troops are bombarding us with glide bombs. One road leading to this (Kursk) direction is constantly monitored by Russian FPV (first-person-view) drones. This road is dotted with broken equipment. And we can't do anything about it — the territory is small, and drones can be launched from any direction," Spys told the Kyiv Independent.
"It is hard to say what will happen next. Our positions are being attacked regularly, but the contact line has not changed significantly so far."
The President of Ukraine had a phone conversation with the Prime Minister of Canada to discuss support for the Victory Plan and NATO membership. The leaders also agreed on positions ahead of the G20 summit and discussed defense cooperation.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, UNN reports with reference to the OP.
The Head of State thanked Canada for its comprehensive assistance and principled support of the Victory Plan.
"Ukraine expects Canada to continue to actively advocate for its first point – an invitation to NATO. Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Justin Trudeau to continue working with the allies in future multilateral formats and in direct negotiations," the statement said.
Zelenskyy and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau discuss countering Russian disinformationSep 25 2024, 03:24 AM • 102403 views
The President also thanked Canada for its public support of allowing the use of long-range weapons against military targets in Russia.
In addition, the leaders coordinated steps ahead of the G20 meeting. It is important that Ukraine's position on a just and lasting peace be voiced there.
The parties also discussed the continuation of defense cooperation, in particular, agreed on the current needs of Ukrainian soldiers.
Zelenskiy asks Trudeau to lobby for authorization to strike russia – ReutersSep 4 2024, 12:54 AM • 144397 views
Republican Senator Marco Rubio is likely to be the next U.S. secretary of state, according to reports on Nov. 12 that mark the latest insight into how President-elect Donald Trump's White House will approach Russia's war in Ukraine.
Trump, leader of the Republican party who was elected president on Nov. 5 in a race where he beat Vice President Kamal Harris as the Democratic nominee, has repeatedly promised to end the war "in 24 hours.”
Though Trump hasn't yet elaborated on his plan, it is expected to involve Ukraine ceding land to Russia or agreeing to a ceasefire and freeze of front-line positions, with Russia holding on to some 20 percent of Ukrainian territory.
If appointed, Rubio would be the U.S.' top diplomat, at the forefront of any peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
Who is Marco Rubio?
Rubio, 53, is a Republican senator from Florida. The son of Cuban immigrants, he would be the first Latino U.S. secretary of state.
How important is Trump’s choice of secretary of state for Ukraine?
Very. The Secretary of State job is the U.S.' top diplomatic position, and the person in this role is responsible for "carrying out the president's foreign policy decisions and advising the president on issues of international concern," according to the National Museum of American Diplomacy.
Rubio stands to replace Antony Blinken, who, in the administration of outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, has played a leading role in U.S.-Ukraine relations throughout Russia's full-scale invasion launched in early 2022.
It was Blinken, along with his British counterpart David Lammy, who in September first received President Volodymyr Zelensky's detailed account of why Ukraine needs permission to strike targets deep inside Russia using Western missiles.
Blinken has made numerous important announcements regarding Ukraine, including humanitarian assistance from the U.S., the provision of air defenses, and F-16 fighter jets. He has also made numerous trips to Kyiv during Russia’s full-blown war against Ukraine.
While on the job, Blinken has been largely supportive of Ukraine and providing Kyiv with what is needed to continue its ability to fight back against Russia's invasion. Judging by his recent comments, Rubio is expected to take a more nuanced position that is tweaked to Trump’s stance.
Marco Rubio walks off the stage before the arrival of Donald Trump at the Miami-Dade Country Fair and Exposition on November 6, 2022 in Miami, Florida (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
What has Rubio said about Ukraine?
Rubio's public statements on Ukraine appear to be very much in line with Trump's broad plans for the war — a swift end to it.
On the campaign trail, Trump has repeatedly said he could end Russia's war within 24 hours if elected president, without elaborating on how he plans to achieve it.
Rubio's statements and actions have been very much geared towards negotiation and an end to the war rather than giving Ukraine what it needs to evict Russian forces from its territory.
Rubio was among the 15 Republican lawmakers in the Senate who voted against the $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine, which eventually passed in April 2024. Its delay severely hampered Ukraine's fight against Russian forces.
"I think the Ukrainians have been incredibly brave and strong in standing up to Russia," Rubio said on Nov. 6.
"But at the end of the day, what we are funding here is a stalemate war, and it needs to be brought to a conclusion, or that country is going to be set back 100 years."
In September, he insisted he was "not on Russia’s side" but that the "reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement."
"I would be comfortable with a deal that ends these hostilities and that I think is favorable to Ukraine, meaning that they have their own sovereignty, that they don’t become a satellite state or a puppet state that is constantly held hostage by the Russians. I’m not going to prejudge any agreement."
It's too early to say what sort of peace deal Trump's new administration will pursue and be able to forge, but some reports in recent months have provided clues.
The latest report came last month when the Financial Times, citing its sources close to Trump's team, reported that he planned to freeze the war.
According to the paper, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, in September outlined the idea of freezing the war by establishing autonomous regions on both sides of the demilitarized zone and leaving Ukraine outside the NATO military alliance.
According to one of Trump's longtime advisors, the new plan would rethink the failed Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, which were never implemented.
The agreements contained a plan that would create temporarily autonomous zones in Russian-occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts which would later be fully reintegrated with the rest of Ukraine. Occupied Crimea was not mentioned in the Minsk agreements.
In July, Politico reported that Trump was reportedly considering the possibility of making a deal with Russia to block the future NATO accession of certain countries, namely Ukraine and Georgia.
One of the sources told Politico that Trump "would be open to something foreclosing NATO expansion and not going back to the 1991 borders for Ukraine."
What will Ukraine think of Rubio's stance?
Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have pushed back against the notion of any sort of ceasefire that would cement Russia's battlefield gains.
“When (Putin) gains strength, he might issue an ultimatum – to recognize all occupied territories, to stay out of NATO, to forget about European integration,” Zelensky said in June."
And there will be many such conditions, depending on how strong (Putin) is at that moment. Therefore, a ceasefire is a trap,” Zelensky added.
US Secretary of State Blinken travels to Brussels to coordinate further support for Ukraine with NATO and EU partners. The visit takes place against the backdrop of Trump's election victory and North Korean troops' participation in the war on the side of Russia.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is heading to Brussels on Tuesday. In the last weeks of US President Joe Biden's tenure, Washington is looking for ways to "increase" military assistance to Ukraine, UNN reports citing Voice of America.
Details
According to the publication, after Brussels, Blinken will travel to Lima, Peru, for a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and then travel to Brazil to attend the G20 summit of the 20 largest economies. He will join Biden in Peru and Brazil.
President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to hold one-on-one talks on Saturday on the sidelines of the APEC summit. The meeting is expected to last about an hour and a half. This was reported to Voice of America by informed persons on condition of anonymity.
On Wednesday, Blinken will participate in talks with NATO and European Union counterparts to coordinate further support for Ukraine, and President Biden will meet with President-elect Donald Trump at the White House.
The officials said Biden will ask Trump to "stay the course" on Ukraine. North Korea's direct support for Russia's war in Ukraine is expected to be a central topic of Blinken's discussions with European counterparts and likely to be on the agenda for talks between US officials and their APEC counterparts.
Ukraine reports that North Korean troops are actively participating in hostilities in Russia's Kursk region, prompting condemnation from a number of European countries of the increased military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
Add
Meanwhile, Russia continues to shell Ukraine, and the country's supreme military commander said that tens of thousands of Russian troops are ready to attack in Russia's Kursk region, part of which Ukraine seized in August.
Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Voice of America that Trump may try to "bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine," as he made this promise during his election campaign.
At the same time, Kupchan noted: "It will not be as easy as he promised… It will take a lot of time for Zelenskyy and Putin's positions to converge," as the conflict has been going on for more than two and a half years.
After the U.S. presidential election, the State Department said that Blinken had been in contact with his European counterparts.
Among them were French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot, German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Officials say the talks focused on the situation in Ukraine, as well as the consequences and threats associated with Russia's decision to send North Korean troops to fight against Ukraine.
Blinken's meetings in Brussels preceded European leaders' talks in Budapest last week, where they discussed transatlantic relations, support for Ukraine, and other pressing issues in light of Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election last week.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister heads to Brussels for important talks with the EU and NATONov 12 2024, 01:36 PM • 14964 views
A Ukrainian drone struck an oil depot in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast igniting one silo, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov reported on his Telegram channel on Nov. 12.
"Ten fire crews worked at the scene and quickly extinguished the fire," Gladkov said, adding there were no reports of casualties.
The oil depot is located near the city of Stary Oskol, he added.
In recent months, Ukrainian forces have launched a series of drone strikes aimed at damaging Russia's oil industry, whose profits fuel Moscow's war efforts.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's concerted campaign to get permission to use Western-supplied weapons like the U.S-made ATACMs and the U.K's Storm Shadows to strike deep inside Russia has, to date, failed.
However, drones can potentially have an outsized impact when they hit highly flammable and less protected targets, such as ethanol distilleries or fuel depots.
Ukraine in September established the Unmanned Systems Forces, a separate branch of Ukraine's Armed Forces dedicated to drone warfare.
Kyiv said it aims to produce 1 million drones this year, in addition to the thousands pledged by foreign partners.
Starting November 15, military personnel will be able to submit requests for transfer through the Army+ application. The decision on the transfer will be made within 72 hours with a mandatory notification of the result.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that military transfers in the army should be unblocked and work through the Army+ app, with the technical readiness to start on November 15, UNN reports.
"Transfers of soldiers in the army must be unblocked. The government has just adopted a special resolution that introduces a real and transparent mechanism for transfers for our soldiers between military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This applies to transfers initiated by the soldiers," Zelenskyy said.
Technical failure in Reserve+: the Ministry of Defense explains what happenedNovember 1 2024, 07:45 PM • 15462 views
According to him, the mechanism was developed in cooperation with civil society, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"We agreed on this at a meeting with civil society in October. We are fulfilling our promise. Transfers will be made through the Army+ app. 72 hours to check the report. The result of the verification is reported to the soldier through the Army+ app. In case of refusal, clear reasons must be given. In case of approval, a clear decision should be given," the Head of State added.
According to him, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine should monitor the effectiveness of the approved mechanism. The technical readiness of the launch is November 15.
"This is an important example of absolutely constructive cooperation between the military leadership and the team of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, on the one hand, and representatives of civil society organizations, on the other. I am grateful to everyone who worked for this decision," Zelensky summarized.
Reserve+: the possibility of deferral for parents with many children is being testedNovember 9 2024, 01:16 PM • 20593 views
Russia has lost 712,610 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Nov. 11.
This number includes 1,950 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day.
According to the report, Russia has also lost 9,276 tanks, 18,847 armored fighting vehicles, 28,870 vehicles and fuel tanks, 20,352 artillery systems, 1,249 multiple launch rocket systems, 996 air defense systems, 369 airplanes, 329 helicopters, 18,737 drones, 28 ships and boats, and one submarine.
Following the damage to the Ternivka dam in Donetsk region, water is rising in the Vovcha River. According to the MBA, there is no critical situation and no flooding of houses.
There is no critical situation, despite the fact that the damage to the hydraulic structure caused by the invaders' actions led to the flooding of the surrounding area.
Written by UNN with reference to Suspilne.
Water continues to arrive below the Ternivka dam. I've been in touch with my colleagues. There is no critical situation, no flooded houses yet
– said Roman Padun, Head of Kurakhovska MBA.
The official also noted that it has not yet been possible to go and inspect the damaged dam.
Recall
UNN reported that due to the damage to the Ternivka dam in Donetsk region, water has risen in the Vovcha River. The water is approaching the settlements of Velykonovosilkovo community, but it is impossible to assess the criticality of the situation due to shelling.
Despite emergency repairs, electricity consumption is growing in UkraineNovember 12 2024, 09:02 AM • 13723 views
The Kyiv IndependentChris York
