Solely days after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White Home, he dialed up the warmth on Russia with a risk of sanctions, tariffs, and negotiating "the arduous manner" if Russian President Vladimir Putin fails to come back to the desk for a peace cope with Ukraine.
Trump has repeatedly promised to push for a swift peace settlement as soon as in workplace, prompting fears from some that he would possibly stress Kyiv in the direction of painful concessions or — at worst — what would quantity to a give up.
His latest feedback, nonetheless, counsel that Trump might be able to take a tough line with Russia.
"In negotiations, it’s about who wants a deal essentially the most," says Timothy Ash, an affiliate fellow on the Chatham Home's Russia and Eurasia Program. "I believe the leverage is with Trump, not Putin."
Trump has leverage in financial, army, and diplomatic phrases — the principle query is his willingness to make use of it.
Russia’s economic system is displaying indicators of weak spot, making Putin extra weak than ever to extra financial stress like sanctions. Ramped-up assist for Ukraine on the battlefield may add to Russia’s mounting losses and additional incentivize dealmaking, as would uniting assist amongst allies and squeezing Russia on the diplomatic stage.
"A protracted battle doesn’t damage Trump very a lot. There's no big price to the U.S. economic system. No U.S. lives are at risk," stated Ash, including that a big portion of U.S. army support has been reinvested in its home protection trade. "Trump can stick with it, whereas for Putin, it simply will get harder for him the longer it goes."
‘Russia’s economic system isn't doing effectively’
The Trump administration is already signaling that sanctions are on the forefront of their negotiating plans with Russia.
"If a deal isn’t reached, I’ll don’t have any different selection however to place excessive ranges of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on something being offered by Russia to the US and different taking part international locations," Trump posted on his social media platform Fact Social Jan. 22.
"If a deal isn’t reached, I’ll don’t have any different selection however to place excessive ranges of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on something being offered by Russia to the US and different taking part international locations."
Earlier within the month, Bloomberg reported that the administration has begun forming its sanctions technique and can seemingly take one among two approaches: providing focused aid to Russian oil producers to incentivize negotiations or considerably increasing sanctions to ramp up stress.
Sanctions are "the perfect leverage we’ve," stated Edward Fishman, a senior analysis scholar at Columbia College’s Middle on International Vitality Coverage and writer of the forthcoming guide "Chokepoints: American Energy within the Age of Financial Warfare."
Whereas the Group of Seven international locations and the earlier U.S. administration beneath President Joe Biden imposed heavy financial sanctions on Russia shortly after the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they included important carve-outs aimed toward not disrupting the worldwide vitality markets.
After a contraction in 2022, aggressive protection spending contributed to Russia’s financial development for the previous two years, suggesting the impact of the sanctions has diminished after Russia’s economic system adjusted and found workarounds.
However Russia’s economic system is now displaying cracks, stated Fishman, and, "within the final 10 days of the Biden administration, the U.S. imposed fairly important sanctions on Russia's oil and gasoline sector that meaningfully enhanced the stress on Russia's economic system."
The last-minute sanctions from the outgoing administration are seemingly meant to supply Trump with a robust negotiating hand in future talks. The brand new sanctions shut lots of the vitality loopholes and will scale back Russian oil exports by between half 1,000,000 and 1,000,000 barrels per day within the brief time period.

"Russia’s economic system isn’t doing very effectively," Fishman stated, pointing to projections of stalled development in 2025 and excessive inflation and rates of interest. "Turning up the warmth now much more on Russia may actually be what we have to get Russia to barter."
A robust sanctions technique will first require convincing Putin that the U.S. has no plans to scale back present sanctions or enforcement, stated Fishman, so Russia can’t simply wait them out.
There are lots of different sanction targets accessible to Trump if he needs to up the stress forward of negotiations, Fishman additionally famous. Chief amongst them can be sanctioning Russia’s vitality giants Rosneft, Lukoil, and Gazprom, which have to date escaped direct sanctions.
Weapons, support, and extra weapons
Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Particular Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, has stated that the administration’s aim is to finish the battle inside 100 days.
Whereas sanctions are one incentive to barter, "their influence is probably going to not be really harmful for Putin for a number of extra months," former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John E. Herbst advised the Kyiv Impartial.
Within the meantime, Putin has a stronger incentive to grab extra territory from Ukraine and attempt to kick Ukrainian forces out of Kursk earlier than negotiating, Herbst stated. "It’s an important embarrassment to Putin that Ukraine's been occupying Kursk for nearly six months."
Whereas Russia has gained floor in jap Ukraine and Kursk Oblast over the previous yr, it has come at the price of report troop losses. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated earlier this month that Russia’s army losses this yr will surpass losses from the earlier two years mixed, and the U.Ok. has estimated that losses may surpass a million within the subsequent six months.
"I believe the one solution to get Putin to maneuver sooner within the brief time period can be for a brand new Trump-approved support package deal to Ukraine filled with weapons," stated Herbst.
“I believe the one solution to get Putin to maneuver sooner within the brief time period can be for a brand new Trump-approved support package deal to Ukraine filled with weapons.”
The package deal wouldn’t must be a present, famous Herbst, however might be a mortgage, or funded by frozen Russian property or European companions.
Alternatively, he stated, different international locations may buy weapons for Ukraine, or the Trump administration may push for a switch of the roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian property, an possibility that has been beforehand mentioned.


"Which may power Putin's hand in the correct route. Though, even then, it's unclear if Putin's prepared to compromise," Herbst stated.
Past weapons, supporting Ukraine with non-military monetary and humanitarian support would not directly assist Ukraine on the battlefield, by giving the nation extra leeway to maintain preventing.
Diplomatic Levers
No matter how Trump chooses to wield the army and financial leverage accessible to him, Trump might want to use diplomacy to carry Putin to the negotiating desk and safe a peace deal. Any diplomatic maneuvering might want to not simply embody Ukraine and Russia however to take their allies into consideration.
"First, there must be a transparent demonstration of unity amongst Ukraine, Europe, and the US as to what we're making an attempt to attain," stated Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow on the Council on Overseas Relations and writer of "Getting Russia Proper."
"The much less daylight there’s between the Ukrainians, the Europeans, and the People, the better leverage that President Trump could have in coping with Putin."
One solution to strengthen Ukraine’s diplomatic place can be extra motion in E.U. accession talks, Graham stated. Ukraine would nonetheless want extra socioeconomic and political reforms, however it might sign long-term dedication from the West to additional combine Ukraine right into a pan-European financial bloc.
Demonstrating that the West is ready to supply safety ensures would ship a sign as effectively, stated Graham.

Ukraine is painfully conscious of the bounds of safety ensures exterior of NATO membership or the dedication of NATO troops, following the repeated failure of the Minsk Agreements to include Russia after its 2014 invasion.
Trump has already dominated out providing Ukraine NATO membership, however many international locations have signed bilateral safety agreements with Ukraine since 2014. Consolidating these piecemeal agreements and offering assets to again up the agreements can be one solution to give them extra enamel, in keeping with Graham.
Lastly, stated Graham, stress on Iran and China may additional isolate Russia and complicate its worldwide place.
Iran’s safety state of affairs has deteriorated as a result of collapse of Syria’s Assad regime in December and up to date tensions with Israel. Strain on Iran, one among Russia’s most essential allies for its battle in Ukraine, may power the nation to reallocate assets to addressing its personal safety considerations, reasonably than supplying Russia.
"And," stated Graham, "there are ties and conversations that we will have with the Chinese language that can maybe encourage China to be much less supportive of Russia than they’ve up up to now."
‘We've little or no perception’
A earlier peace proposal that Trump’s group described earlier than his inauguration dominated out Ukrainian membership in NATO for at the least 20 years. "And that didn’t impress the Russians. They nonetheless trashed Trump’s peace initiative," identified former Ambassador Herbst.
In distinction, Herbst stated, Trump’s group has seen President Volodymyr Zelensky sign willingness to compromise on territory, a softening of Ukraine’s long-standing place that any peace deal should return all captured land to Ukraine.
"At this level, solely the Ukrainians are displaying some willingness to truly compromise," he stated.
However aside from Trump’s feedback threatening financial stress, his administration has given little indication of its technique for negotiations with Russia, all of the consultants who spoke with the Kyiv Impartial famous.
"We’ve little or no perception into what the administration is pondering at this level," defined Graham.
